The Monty Hall Problem (1 Viewer)

[epicFAILx]

Probably everyone would know what novel I'm reading. When i ask this question.

What is 'The Monty Hall Problem'?

In the novel I am reading the narrator makes it simpler to understand. But I suppose it confuses me a little

 

[hayabusaboston]

Probably everyone would know what novel I'm reading. When i ask this question.

What is 'The Monty Hall Problem'?

In the novel I am reading the narrator makes it simpler to understand. But I suppose it confuses me a little

The Curious Incident of the dog in the night time eh?

 

[hayabusaboston]

Well the way it works, is theres 33 percent chance of getting a car from any given door, before the presenter opens it. But when he opens it, by staying with your choice you still have that 33 percent that you had originally, 1/3 doors have the car, yours COULD be the car, but if you now know the goat is in one door, switching doors would give you a 2/3 chance of getting the car, because you're dealing with two doors, and as you had 33 percent for the one you chose, switching would make it 66 percent likely you'd get the car because the one door is already open.


OMG does that make sense? sorry im no good at explaining things.

 

[epicFAILx]

The Curious Incident of the dog in the night time eh?

Indeed

 

[epicFAILx]

Well the way it works, is theres 33 percent chance of getting a car from any given door, before the presenter opens it. But when he opens it, by staying with your choice you still have that 33 percent that you had originally, 1/3 doors have the car, yours COULD be the car, but if you now know the goat is in one door, switching doors would give you a 2/3 chance of getting the car, because you're dealing with two doors, and as you had 33 percent for the one you chose, switching would make it 66 percent likely you'd get the car because the one door is already open.


OMG does that make sense? sorry im no good at explaining things.

I sort of understand it..
like it deals with thirds?

Does it relate to a persons perspective.

I don't entirely understand..


Wow.. now by looking at the diagram in the novel.. am i safe to say that there are two goats and one car?!

 

[hayabusaboston]

I sort of understand it..
like it deals with thirds?

Does it relate to a persons perspective.

I don't entirely understand..

It deals with thirds, yes, for the three doors. And the fact that if you stay with the door your chance stays the same too. As one goat was eliminated however, either of the two doors (ie 2/3rds) can have the car, but as I said the chance is the same if you stick with your door, so changing gets you that extra 33 percent, for 2/3 chance of winning the car

 

[epicFAILx]

Ahhk

 

[hayabusaboston]

I sort of understand it..
like it deals with thirds?

Does it relate to a persons perspective.

I don't entirely understand..


Wow.. now by looking at the diagram in the novel.. am i safe to say that there are two goats and one car?!

Yes

 

[Nooblet94]

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=mhlc7peGlGg

I've found this is a pretty good explanation, although the first 2 and a half minutes is just explaining the premise of the problem.

 

[hayabusaboston]

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=mhlc7peGlGg

I've found this is a pretty good explanation, although the first 2 and a half minutes is just explaining the premise of the problem.

Yea there are a few ways of looking at it actually, this one is rather good.

 

[epicFAILx]

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=mhlc7peGlGg

I've found this is a pretty good explanation, although the first 2 and a half minutes is just explaining the premise of the problem.

I wonder why so many are baffled by this problem.
Okay, ill see if the vid clears up my issues.

Thanks for finding the vid.

 

[PaterzAttack]

Christopher explains it pretty well in the novel

He uses it as an example to show that maths involves a bit of complex thought and that the answer is not always as simple as it seems

 

[PaterzAttack]

 

[carpe_diem]

The movie '21' explains it really well. Or, at least I thought so.

 

[hayabusaboston]

The movie '21' explains it really well. Or, at least I thought so.

21 is the BEST MOVIE EVER

The storyline was EXACTLY what a friend and I are planning to do, before we saw the movie we had a whole plan set up, then when we watched it we were just like HOLY DAMN SOMEONE IS WATCHING US


lol

 

[epicFAILx]

Yeah when I first read that I was thinking: but there are two goats and one car.. so even if you switched once you couldve gotten a goat. and then i confused myself. -______-

 

[hayabusaboston]

Yeah when I first read that I was thinking: but there are two goats and one car.. so even if you switched once you couldve gotten a goat. and then i confused myself. -______-

Precisely, two goats and one car, thats why the "Choose a goat" option was repeated twice.

 

[Absolutezero]

The basic riddle is: three doors, two have goats behind them, one has the car. Your aim is to pick the car. You pick one; then one of the other doors is revealed to have a goat behind it. You then get the option to stick with the door you have, or change to the other remaining door.

This is a good picture. If you analyse it, what you can deduce is:

The final options result in a 50/50 split

However, with the change/stick options, you can see that if you change you have a 2 in 3 chance of winning.

 

[qwerty44]

The chances are that you choose a goat(2/3). Keeping this in mind, when they reveal the other goat (and the chances are you have the first one), then if you change you would choose the car.
This will only happen if you choose a goat at first, which is more likely. Therefore if it is more likely that you choose a goat first, then it is more likely that when you switch you get the car.

 

[khorne]

if you don't believe it, program it in python, run it 10,000 times and youll see