Does your school give UAI predictions? (1 Viewer)

lala2

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Mine doesn't. Not that it is a bad school, and using SAM I got what I expected, but I think that if we had been given the option of UAI predictions then the school would've outperformed itself this year. It's all PC crap--they say if we are given UAI predictions we would be either demoralised and not work, or too happy, and not work. Well, what about the option of if we got demoralised, we might just actually work? Or that if you were happy with your prediction, you would work hard to keep it? Grrr....our school's going down. :(

Btw, is it true that all selective schools give UAI predictions and not many private schools do? (I dunno about comprehensives, so you can enlighten me on that too) If so, my school should start changing real soon....
 

physician

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Personaly I would encourage UAI predictions, although my school did not give us predictions... (other than the carrers advisor pulling out a random number if u approached her...this was done after the trials as well)

I myself have offered to give the class of 06 at my school UAI predictions, not just after the trials, but after the half yrlies as well, and for those interested, at the completion of each term.

I think alot of students (especialy at my school, and many others as well) dont really know where they stand. My school is an easy marker in most cases, and the 2005, 2004 and 2003 HSC results proved this for most subjects. What an UAI prediction can do, is give the students a realistic view at the kind of UAI their marks reflect...and if done in intervals at different times of the yr, a student will always (in most cases) push themselves to better the previous UAI prediction.

The important thing with UAI predictions, is actualy having a good grasp of school statistics, as in what kind of internal marks for subjects x, reflect a band 5 externaly (generaly), or a band 6.

This year I actualy confronted my English teacher and asked him whether he expected anyone to get a band 6 for english (my school is'nt the best at english, although improving), his reply was "maybe 1 student" which he didint say with full conviction, well we ended up with none, although that 1 student came close.

So what Im looking at is not only UAI predictions, I would even go as deep as providing each student with an HSC mark prediction for specific subjects (I can do this because my school is pritty small, only about 20 yr 12s)...

Although, theres no point in givng UAI predictions and specific subject predictions, if advice doesnt follow.


Lala, I understand where ur coiming from, and ur right, although some students wont even be affected by a UAI prediction, I guess ur school is trying to play it safe rather than have phone calls from a depressed student's parents, asking why he/she got a UAI prediction of 44.00... and blaming the school for his/her suicide ( lets hope it doesnt get to that...but just as an example)

UAI predictions are good, but if ur school is not confident, perhaps propose that each student gets to decide whether they want a prediction or not!

Im leaving it as an optional thing for the class of 2006...

Personaly I havnt heard of many schools who actualy give UAI predictions, so I wouldnt be able to help u there.. hmmm, I recall Dreamerish having a UAI prediction made, i think it was 97-99... she got 98 point something if im not mistaken?
 

seremify007

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lala2 said:
Btw, is it true that all selective schools give UAI predictions and not many private schools do? (I dunno about comprehensives, so you can enlighten me on that too) If so, my school should start changing real soon....
My school doesn't- for all scholarship, cadetship, coop, etc.. forms, they tell us just to write down a UAI of 95+.

The only thing close to a prediction is when I had an interview with the Principal at the end of the year to receive my Year12 Trial-HSC school report, I asked him what he thought my UAI was, and he said "Based on past performance of the school with the average being 97-98, and you being very close to the average in most subjects, I think you will get a UAI between 97 and 98."- the only thing he didn't know was that I went considerably better in my Trials than I did normally throughout the year which is probably why I received towards the lower end of his range.

As for UAI predictions and SAM, I've decided it's nearly impossible to figure out your UAI if you are in a selective high because the marks you get at school are not reflective of how you'd perform in a normal comprehensive school environment because of reasons such as;
a) Different marking schemes are in place to allow differentiation between students
b) There's a higher participation rate- I know this is subjective, but I'm pretty sure that in a selective high, people are more likely to be trying harder because they are pushed by their parents, their peers and themselves (otherwise they wouldn't be there!)
c) Our marks get moderated (in my school at least) so that the average is always between a certain range (I think it's 75-85%?).

I'm aware that SAM is designed to work with aligned/moderated marks, but how to calculate those from your school marks is nearly impossible. I was getting around 90% in exams and around 75-80% for assignments in IPT, yet I came out with 98% overall. I didn't expect to go anywhere near that well in the HSC^^

EDIT: The other thing (after reading above post) is that school statistics can vary... even for selective. The quality of the intake at the beginning of year7 may not be reflective of the quality of the HSC candidature at the end of year12, and then demands for certain schools (as in, number of applicants which affect the percentile of applicants which successfully enrol in a selective high) can vary over the years so it's not always possible to base one grade's estimation using the previous grade's average/median.

Bah, I still stand by my- Don't try to predict your UAI, just do your best and see what happens^^
 
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seremify007

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I also thought I'd add to this debate as to whether UAI predictions are a good idea- I think a range is very helpful for students because it will help them figure out what they can or should be aiming for (and helps curb disappointment later on). However, I don't think a specific UAI should be given but rather a range- It enables people to push themself further to reach the upper bracket of their range whilst knowing that the goal is reachable and possible. Lowering/deflating an estimation may also help in boosting people's drive to the finish and I heard that is what they do at James Ruse? However, inflating a UAI estimation is definitely something which I think is not going to help at all since it'll likely inflate someone's ego/confidence and lead to bitter disappointment; although for a few people, it might be enough to tell them that they might be able to achieve better than what they expected and push them harder.

*shrugs*
 

Dreamerish*~

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The disadvantage is that people who recieve high UAI estimates become over-confident and overlook the fact that the actual HSC exams are worth a whole 50%. It's not always accurate, and I agree with Seremify that giving a range is a better idea than an exact mark.

My estimate was 97-98 which was very unexpectedly high for how much effort I put into schoolwork. So I ignored it and pushed myself like I normally would before the exams and my UAI turned out to be 98.20. If you don't let your estimate affect the way you study, it should be fairly accurate. Of course, a low estimate could motivate you like nothing else. :p
 

seremify007

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Low estimate + High expectation parents = Good motivation.

Btw congrats on the 98 UAI =]

EDIT: This is my 1000th post!!
 
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Dreamerish*~

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seremify007 said:
Low estimate + High expectation parents = Good motivation.

Btw congrats on the 98 UAI =]
Haha, like nothing else. :)

Thank you!
 

physician

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Dreamerish*~ said:
The disadvantage is that people who recieve high UAI estimates become over-confident and overlook the fact that the actual HSC exams are worth a whole 50%. It's not always accurate, and I agree with Seremify that giving a range is a better idea than an exact mark.

My estimate was 97-98 which was very unexpectedly high for how much effort I put into schoolwork. So I ignored it and pushed myself like I normally would before the exams and my UAI turned out to be 98.20. If you don't let your estimate affect the way you study, it should be fairly accurate. Of course, a low estimate could motivate you like nothing else. :p

Yep, I agree 100%, in regards to both accuracy and giving a range!

oh and sorry for getting ur estimate incorrect....lol... oh and Yes! I'd like to congratulate u on ur UAI also!


Seremify007 said:
EDIT: The other thing (after reading above post) is that school statistics can vary... even for selective. The quality of the intake at the beginning of year7 may not be reflective of the quality of the HSC candidature at the end of year12, and then demands for certain schools (as in, number of applicants which affect the percentile of applicants which successfully enrol in a selective high) can vary over the years so it's not always possible to base one grade's estimation using the previous grade's average/median.

By school statistics i meant solely those of yr 12. The quality of the candidates will be judged according to previous students who attempted the same subjects, their internal marks, compared to 06'ers internal marks for those subjects!

Since the number of yr 12 students in my school is small, it wont be so difficult to do and monitor. Teachers also need to do their part in saying whether theyre marking a certain grade harsher than a previous grade. There are alot of factors that need to be taken into consideration, but in the end its only an estimate to let students know where they stand. I had a few freinds recieving UAI's this yr they'd never imagined to come close to (they expected higher) If confronted with this issue previously they would have realised they had a problem, and may have started studying hard enough to get to where they wanted!
 
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SweetSeasons

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My year advisor told me he was expecting me to get in the 90's.. and I dunno I never really cared. The truth is I was more worried about having fun then doing study. I know I could of got in the 90's and I don't regret not trying, I've got great memories of high school and i'm doing what I always wanted to do.
 

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The thing is, it varies so much depending on who is making it... and whether they're using statistics and SAM, or just pulling a figure out of their arse. I mean, I've had teachers think I'll get 90-93, others who thought 97 or 98... you don't know who to trust, whether they're being generous or whether you're not capable of any more. I think it's fine to have them or not but at the end of the day you should set a goal for yourself. Mine was 97.4 (old cut-off for Sydney's BA languages) and I surpassed that by 2.25, which was a fab surprise.
 

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UAI predictions are bulshit. My school gave me one right after all my school assessments had been done. They told me i woul dget 82.00 UAI. I ended up gettin just under 94.00. 2006ers dont trust in them. if anythings accurate it is SAM2005, juai is off by a few points.
 

physician

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Tommy_69 said:
UAI predictions are bulshit. My school gave me one right after all my school assessments had been done. They told me i woul dget 82.00 UAI. I ended up gettin just under 94.00. 2006ers dont trust in them. if anythings accurate it is SAM2005, juai is off by a few points.
SAM 2005 is in fact a pritty good indication ur right (also combining it with 2002, 2003 and 2004 SAM as well)... even though UAI's are not comparable between years, it still gives a good indication of where u might stand!

However, depending on the school u attend, its not always accurate.

Entering assessment marks of students from my school into SAM gave UAI estimates about 5-10 points off...(im talking internal assessment marks, before the HSC exams)

My school is an easy marker for a few subjects (and so are many others), whilst on the contrary other schools are harsh. U go St Ignatius aye!

Im pritty sure Riverview is a pritty tough marker. They gave u an estimate based on ur internals. I recall u said ur internal for english was somwhere in the high 70's (prolly 77), but ended up with 85+??? (sorry i forgot what u got exactly)...This would probably be because ur school is a tough marker. Whereas if u were to attend my school, a 77 at Riverview would probably translate into a 92 at my school. This is why Estimates can often be very inaccurate which was the case for ur estimate!

Neverthless well done on ur terrific UAI!
 

EmMindelan

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My private school wouldn't give us predictions, and I'm pretty sure that when we got asked for predicted UAIs [for UNSW med forms, etc], they estimated all of our students at 99+. Fair, unfair, who knows?

Knox Grammar, on the other hand, which is a boys' school very near mine, estimates all their students' UAIs twice during Year 12; and apparently the 2nd time they do so they decrease/deflate the UAI in order to motivate the boys....but from what I know, those UAI estimates sound like they're pretty inaccurate and wayyyy too high [e.g. predicting dozens of boys at 99+, when the vast majority of them came anywhere close].

There were times this year when I really wished for a prediction, but I think I'm reasonably happy with my school's system.
 

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i go to a catholic school and we got uai predictions, our system was that on our school intranet thing, they had a program called 'UAI Estimator' (something along the lines of juai and sam), and we were encouraged to enter in our report marks from our half yearlies and our trial marks to see what our uai would be if we did the hsc the last few years...

when i entered in my marks from year 11 (hahah we were encouraged to use it back then already!), i had an estimate of 95.75... then at year 12 half yearly report time i had something along the lines of 97... and then after entering in the trial marks i ended up with 98.75.. and finally the actual one was 98.85... so i guess mine was pretty accurate.. with me, knowing what sort of range i fell into and seeing the improvement encouraged me alot more!
 

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miss_gtr said:
Everyone says that though, I don't believe that you didnt try at all.
I just meant didn't try as hard as what I should have or could have.. I studied hard for industrial tech and I did all my assignments pretty well but I could have done an hour of study each day for the year insted of watching tv or going to the pub... I still did pretty well 78.5. I'm happy, who cares if I let some 50 yr old year advisor down
 

seremify007

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EmMindelan said:
My private school wouldn't give us predictions, and I'm pretty sure that when we got asked for predicted UAIs [for UNSW med forms, etc], they estimated all of our students at 99+. Fair, unfair, who knows?
Some people from my school believe that is what "held us back" and explains why we had such a low level of students progress through to the interview stage of UMAT. Whilst I consider it unfair in the sense that other schools force students to write certain estimates which are a bit low (in order to prevent any liability later on with students claiming false hopes), in the end, the people who overstate their UAI won't make it into med. Although it does sadden me that a few of my peers who were so determined to get into med got kicked back-

I guess it's good that our school doesn't give us UAI predictions- but there are subtle things like "Oh in the past the school averages UAIs of **.5" which can easily throw us off just as much as an actual estimate because we end up just trying to figure out our ranks/position in the school and compare our marks to grade averages... But then, at least this way we aren't left with a decimal number which we should be expecting.

What do you guys think of schools overstating UAIs? I can't seem to think of any decent benefit of it when they are overstating them in the high 90's- Maybe in the lower ranges it might motivate people by showing them that they are capable of something, but I'd hate to think of the disappointment people will face when the real HSC UAI hits them hard.
 

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My school (TKS) decided a few years back not to offer UAI predictions to students. However, i did overhear our Director of Studies comment to another teacher about UAI modelling they were carrying out before the official results. Apparently the school models the cohort's progress throughout the year. However, none of this is told to students, an di believe rightly so. Predictions may not be accurate, and could lure students into a false sense of security before tehir final-exams.
 

seremify007

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rherkes said:
But school isn't all about getting into university, it is also about learning important life skills. Many of these are taught outside the classroom in sport, cadets and other activities at the school.
LOL that's the exact argument they used in the private school vs. selective school vs. comprehensive school debate. Nonetheless I think it depends on what the individual student wants to achieve- I mean there's no point pushing someone to misery by forcing them to perform academically when they are much better off doing something they are good at and learning skills which will help them get a job... but for quite a few people, going to university is the desired path, and that's why some schools focus very heavily on guiding students along that path.
 

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Wow, a range of interesting views here...and maybe I'm glad they didn't give me a UAI prediction, thuogh they keep repeating the only 'statistic' they've 'got' that 50% of PLC's girls get a UAI of 90+, which didn't mean anything to me as I was looking more for a UAI of 95+ (which I got). I agree with physician that if any school wants to give a prediction, they should allow the students the option of having their UAIs estimated or not, so that any dejected parents or students will not blame the school in the end, and yes, a range does sound like a good thing too.
 

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