2007 Federal Election - Coalition or Labor/Howard or Rudd? (1 Viewer)

[Iron]

Re: 2007 Federal Election - Coalition or Labor/Howard or Beazley?

But does anybody remember when Alexander Downer had to step down as Opposition Leader because he made fun of domestic violence or before the 1993 election John Hewson (who I believe hardly anybody in this forum will remember) lost the election for the Libs because of the infamous Birthday Cake Interview.

A bit more complex than that, esp Hewson.

For anyone serious, Labor's victory is practically impossible, save a dramatic turn of unanticipated economic events. However the swing towards them should be inevitable.

When it comes to leading this nation, Kim isn’t wildly popular, but he has the experience - cf Latham, who was inexperienced, but a huge source of public/media interest; in the end, experience beats public interest r.e. leadership. Labor has a base of somewhere <40% which it can rely on. The rest is up to the swingers, preferences and convincing prosperous people that Labor will make them more prosperous (a hard sell). But I fully expect a pretty solid primary gain in 07, around 2001 levels, if not higher.

A Labor victory is hard at the best of times. All the power-brokers are against them. In terms of media, they can rely on the Australian and the ABC for fair coverage, but no one else. Any Labor win is inevitably a result of both tough times and superb talent: Unfortunately the party currently has neither.

 

[frog12986]

Re: 2007 Federal Election - Coalition or Labor/Howard or Beazley?

A bit more complex than that, esp Hewson.

For anyone serious, Labor's victory is practically impossible, save a dramatic turn of unanticipated economic events. However the swing towards them should be inevitable.

When it comes to leading this nation, Kim isn’t wildly popular, but he has the experience - cf Latham, who was inexperienced, but a huge source of public/media interest; in the end, experience beats public interest r.e. leadership. Labor has a base of somewhere <40% which it can rely on. The rest is up to the swingers, preferences and convincing prosperous people that Labor will make them more prosperous (a hard sell). But I fully expect a pretty solid primary gain in 07, around 2001 levels, if not higher.

A Labor victory is hard at the best of times. All the power-brokers are against them. In terms of media, they can rely on the Australian and the ABC for fair coverage, but no one else. Any Labor win is inevitably a result of both tough times and superb talent: Unfortunately the party currently has neither.

I'm not sure I'd take an approach as dire as that. We must not forget that we are at least 12 months out from an election, which is an eternity in politics. For all we know economic conditions could improve further, or fall into recession; interest rates could begin a downward trend, or maintain the upward path; inflation could continue to mount pressure on various aspects of the economy, or it could be reigned in.

At the end of the day, there are so many variables that will affect the likely outcome of the election, and opinion polls and the like are really useless exercises at this point of the cycle in my opinion. The last month in NSW politics should remind us of how volatile the political cycle can be..

There's only one thing that we can plsce bets on at this point. Either John Howard or Kim Beazely will be Prime Minister in 12 months time.. if there's relative stability and prosperity, Howard will win. If the proverbial hits the fan in an economic sense, Beazely will attain his dream. Lets hope it's the former..

 

[Rafy]

Re: 2007 Federal Election - Coalition or Labor/Howard or Beazley?

Rebels plan Beazley coup 'by Christmas'
Rudd can lead Labor to victory
Beazley by default, but prospects grim
Queensland headache for ALP
I'm staying on: Beazley

 

[beersandwich]

Re: 2007 Federal Election - Coalition or Labor/Howard or Beazley?

just found this thread - according to the poll above - the wise people of BoS wish to have this wise, educated, hypocritcal clown as their leader

*He has focused too much on the Government's industrial relations changes at the expense of other issues, a repeat of his failed anti-GST strategy in the 2001 election.
*Labor has been left behind on broader issues, including climate change, Iraq and education.
*The Prime Minister's use of "values" in debates over such areas as citizenship has failed to elicit a workable response from the Labor leadership and has left the Opposition floundering.
*Mr Beazley's regular mispronunciations, of which his Rove McManus/Karl Rove confusion on Friday was just the latest example, are hurting his credibility.
*His closeness to twice-jailed former West Australian premier Brian Burke is damaging the party's prospects in that state.
qutoed from http://www.theage.com.au/news/natio...up-by-christmas/2006/11/20/1163871341094.html

yet if not him then who else can lead. (and actually gain votes)

 

[wheredanton]

Re: 2007 Federal Election - Coalition or Labor/Howard or Beazley?

I'm not sure I'd take an approach as dire as that. We must not forget that we are at least 12 months out from an election, which is an eternity in politics. For all we know economic conditions could improve further, or fall into recession; interest rates could begin a downward trend, or maintain the upward path; inflation could continue to mount pressure on various aspects of the economy, or it could be reigned in.

The Liberals pretty much cannot loose the next election. Bar interest rates going continuing on a a steady rise in the new year.

In any case if things do start to go bad I'm sure John Howard will whip out of race card. It's a sure thing.

 

[timlay]

Re: 2007 Federal Election - Coalition or Labor/Howard or Beazley?

John Howard looks more trustworthy...maybe it's the bushy eyebrows......


Don't like beazley. But aren't both the parties pretty much on the same wing nowadays? .... theres always a "right wing" section of each party..

anyway. BEAZLEY if i feel like pitying. (but nah...who wants to be patronised.)

 

[Rafy]

Re: 2007 Federal Election - Coalition or Labor/Howard or Beazley?

Bomber needs help to hit the target
Time to say farewell, Kim
I am a safe pair of hands: Beazley
In politics, nice guys don't always win

 

[ZabZu]

Re: 2007 Federal Election - Coalition or Labor/Howard or Beazley?

The Liberals pretty much cannot loose the next election.

I wouldnt say that. However, Labor's opposition to WorkChoices is the only reason its competitive as this point in time.

 

[timlay]

Re: 2007 Federal Election - Coalition or Labor/Howard or Beazley?

in memory, i think the side which wins the debate, usually loses the elections...like. that debate with the worm and stuff on channel 9...

what would happen if labor won? and all the states were labors too.... =/.

 

[ihavenothing]

Re: 2007 Federal Election - Coalition or Labor/Howard or Beazley?

Yeh but Victoria may be won by the Libs so wait for this Saturday which is the election

 

[withoutaface]

Re: 2007 Federal Election - Coalition or Labor/Howard or Beazley?

err.. this is labors problem... they don't take john howard on on his economic policies.

As someone studying Economics and Political Economy, i can tell you that john howards economic policies are atrocious.

Yes! The economy HAS grown! But what does this mean? It means more money coming across our borders from overseas. But it means very little if this money is just cementing the power of an elite, and money is being cut continuosly from higher education and being put into the defence force (generates more money for industry there)

The fact is, although more money has enterd our borders, Inequality is growing.

The richest 10% in australia earn 15 times more than the bottom 10%! It has grown under howard. Is this good economic policy? Hell no!

You cannot have inequality. The idea of some People being born poor while others rich is a fundamental injustice. Every child is born equal.

The group with the best economic policy is the Greens, its economic policy that doesn't look at how this years financial profits are going, but rather, how we will be better off in a decade. The Professor of Political Economy at sydney uni is involved in drafting their economic policy. You can do far worse than vote green if you believe in equality over profits.

I'm sick of this "inequality is increasing, therefore the poor are worse off" bullshit. The conditions of the lowest paid workers are getting better as an absolute measure, therefore things are getting better. If I'm able to add a second storey to my house because the economy's better, am I somehow not better off than before because my neighbour built another storey, a pool and bought a boat?

 

[frog12986]

Re: 2007 Federal Election - Coalition or Labor/Howard or Beazley?

Yeh but Victoria may be won by the Libs so wait for this Saturday which is the election

Unless you live in some form of remote dreamland, there is no chance of that happening whatsoever.. not even a miracle could produce it..

 

[The Brucemaster]

Re: 2007 Federal Election - Coalition or Labor/Howard or Beazley?

Defintely Costello. He seems very passionate about the leadership job and Nelson's handling of Defence doesn't garner much support at all.

 

[kaviii]

Re: 2007 Federal Election - Coalition or Labor/Howard or Beazley?

Interesting article on the SMH site today.



Source: http://www.smh.com.au/news/national/nelson-for-leadership/2006/11/24/1164341401770.html

Who would you favour? Costello or Nelson. Or someone else entirely?

and brendon nelson can fuck off, i dont want to see him as the potential prime minister who wanted schools to teach creationism in science

 

[Rafy]

Re: 2007 Federal Election - Coalition or Labor/Howard or Beazley?

Labor's long slide



Costello. Turnbull down the track (Needs experience in the ministry)

 

[ZabZu]

Re: 2007 Federal Election - Coalition or Labor/Howard or Beazley?

Julia Gillard should be leader...I reckon she is the best suited for the job.

I prefer Rudd .

However, as a Labor supporter I dont like this leadership speculation. I think its too late to change leaders. Even though im not the biggest fan of Beazley, the party should just stick with him until the next election and if he has his 3rd defeat against Howard, he should stand down.

This Victorian ALP member on the TV this morning summed it up very well. He said people dont vote for you because of your personality, they vote for you because of your policies.

 

[Rafy]

Re: 2007 Federal Election - Coalition or Labor/Howard or Beazley?

Voters dumping Beazley for Rudd

Beazley (http://www.ozpolitics.info/election2007/pollchart-newspoll-satisfied-with-ol.png)
Satisfaction: 28% (Down 6%)
Dissatisfaction: 58% (Up 8%)

Preferred ALP leadership team:
Beazley/Macklin: 27%
Rudd/Gillard: 52%

Preferred Leader:
Rudd: 28% (Up 6)
Gillard: 27%
Beazley: 24% (Down 6)
___

Preferred PM
Howard: 55%
Beazley: 25%
__

Primary vote
Coalition: 41% (Unchanged)
Labor: 39% (up 2%)
Greens: 7% (down 2%)

2PP Coalition/Labor: 49/51

 

[frog12986]

Re: 2007 Federal Election - Coalition or Labor/Howard or Beazley?

It's a worry for Beazely and the ALP..

Only a couple of months ago he was proclaiming that the ALP would WIN the next election, now his rhetoric has turned to the notion of 'contestability'.. a change in attitude for the worse...

The 2PP result is fairly consistent to that leading up to the last election; as is the preferred PM result..

 

[Not-That-Bright]

Re: 2007 Federal Election - Coalition or Labor/Howard or Beazley?

Wow if those figures are correct that's quite shocking given how relatively unknown gillard/rudd are compared with beazley.

 

[Rafy]

Re: 2007 Federal Election - Coalition or Labor/Howard or Beazley?

ABC News: Speculation grows over Labor leadership
7.30 Report: Beazley admits to mistakes as his popularity falls

The ABC is reporting a challenge could come as early as next week. There is at the very least the numbers required to call a special caucus meeting to debate the leadership issue.

___

Beazley may face call to step down
Beazley faces new leadership pressure
Talk of challenge stalks Beazley
Beazley fails to quell leadership rumblings
Labor discontent may bring leadership challenge
Labor 'doing it tough' as MPs dodge media
PM won't be drawn on Labor leadership
Is the Bomber imploding?