Australian politics: the next ten years? (1 Viewer)

[gerhard]

as we are inundated with religious/leb threadds


predict the next ten years of australian politics - major issues, parties in power, whatever you want. try and keep it serious so people can discuss stuff.

 

[Generator]

Despite being a important part of the Australian political system (in the past, anyway), the Democrats will fade into the background, with only Stott Despoja likely to survive the next election. However, both Murray (Western Australia) and Bartlett (Queensland) are quite good, so here's hoping that the four Democrats survive the next election - if anything, I would really like to see Murray retain his place.

Apart from that... It's all dependent upon the state of the economy, sadly. We may well see the current government strike more blows against the retreating social-democratic framework upon which our current society operates (some see this as something to cheer, of course), or we may see a period of stability emerge as the current reforms take effect and make their presence known over the long term. Oh, and the ALP is going to continue to shift to the right, tax cuts will continue to fall from the sky, and the idea of forgoing a tax cut in order to allow a funding boost to a government service will continue to be taboo for both the ALP and the Libs. The Nats are likely to break away from the Libs at some stage(or the Libs may dissolve the Coalition), too.

Edit: Here's to Beazley being sent back to the backbench and... someone, anyone, taking the leadership. My preference (from the current crop of Labor MPs) would be Gillard.

Edit 2: Though a number of people may fear both the IR reforms and the Coalition's control of the Senate (whenever Joyce is onside, that is), I think that the way in which political apathy dominates our society will see the Coalition to another 'victory' come 2007 (barring some unforseen event that sees the current Coalition crash and burn). Whether they maintain their control of the Senate, though, is up the air as far as I'm concerned. Beyond 2007... Presidential politics is the name of the game in today's Australia, so a great deal will be dependent upon who leads both the ALP and the Libs/Coalition.

Edit 3: The nation-state will continue to be racked by debates regarding what it means to be 'Australian', and another hope of mine (this one being close to a pipe-dream) is to see the following sense of identity emerge -

The challenge is to develop a public understanding of multiculturalism that recognises difference within a common and shared set of constitutional and political institutions and values.

What is crucial to nation building is not shared values but a shared identity which derives from an acceptance and identification with a common set of social and political institutions. The prime requirement is to reaffirm the indissoluble principles of a liberal democracy that bind us together as a political community, but at the same time recognises difference.

We need to recognise that we identify with the political nation, conceived of as a self-governing, political and moral community and not a cultural nation derived from some set of mythical core cultural values signifying unifying cultural values of the dominant group in society.

The real basis of unity, social cohesion, solidarity and social integration lies not in shared values but a shared identity which derives from an acceptance and identification with a common set of social and political institutions.

Source: Laksiri Jaysuriya - Our shared, core values are but a myth underpinning this new racism (SMH Online: Page 2)

Let us hope that we at least take the odd step or two in this direction over the next ten years.

No doubt there's more that's escaping my mind at this particular moment, but I think that the above will do.

 

[veterandoggy]

i reckon economically our dollar will rise, but so will our interest rates *does teh greedy dance*

 

[hiphophooray123]

if interest rates rise i will be a happy man

housing prices will fall, the interest i recieve from my ING account will increase, and i don't buy into the whole credit craze so yay for me....if it happens

 

[euripidies]

I think we might be heading for a recession.

Australians are in debt 130 for every 100 they earn, being that our economy is based on domestic consumer spending to keep the aggregate demand high. Interest rates have to go up which will hurt the average consumer and thus a decline in consumer spending. How bad it will be while depend on how the government handles it.

Labor gets rid of Beazley and put in Gillard or Rudd.

The democrats collapse because centrism doesn’t really have an existence expert for political savvy opportunists which they defiantly are not.

The greens and the family first continue to grow on the sides.


ok i really dont know.

 

[Enlightened_One]

I don't know about a recession, but I don't see our national debt going anywhere but up.

Given the fraility of the relationship between China and America, during the next ten years Howard (for however long he remains) will try to fence sit but eventually Australia will either have to choose sides or do a Sweden and declare themselves out of it entirely (which they won't do because they fear losing trade). I just can't see which side we'll go with. I'm leaning slightly towards America.

A slight hope maybe that the EU becomes a rival to America and China. Australia may then try to keep ties with all three and may not have to side with either China or America.

 

[erawamai]

- Libs will be in power for the next 5 to 10 years. Next election they will loose their Senate majority.

- Senator Hill will retire next year and will be given a plum diplomatic post. Senator Abetz or Senator Coonan will become leader of the Libs in the upper house.

- John Howard may not retire. I believe he will continue as occupier of Kirribilli House and as PM until he is unpopular. Either that or he will retire in the new year as his conservative eco right wet dream has now been achieved. This will result in Costello to leader, Abbot to treasury and Turbull to the front bench (maybe)

- IR changes will be good for majority. Those in which it impacts negatively on will probably be too stupid to realise (I assume that's what the Liberals will be counting on) and continue to vote liberal...

- Big Kim will loose the next election if the economy continues to sail along well. Will be replaced by either Rudd or Gillard (Unlikely, right still control the party).

...oh and Fred Nile will be old in 10 years.

That is all.

 

[frog12986]

Due to the unpredictability of the global economic climate and the workings of terrorism etc, I think that making assumptions as to what will occur in the next ten years is a bit ambitious..

However, I do believe that John Howard will take the Liberals to 2007, and as erawamai pointed out, will win the election however lose the senate majority. This extra time will allow for Malcolm Turnbull to exhibit his political skills and emerge as another challenger for leadership. He's ambitious charismatic, intelligent and reeks of leadership material. However his portrayal as an 'upper-class' stooge may work against him...

Federal and state responsibilites will emerge at the forefront, with duplication and inefficiency the key issues. I believe that health will be handed over to become a federal responsibility..ambitious? undoubtedly, however very needed. $11.5 bn worth of surplus needs to be reinjected into services such as health as oppose to tax cuts..tax reform should be at the forefront, not merely tax cuts...Turnbull will play tax reform as his major trump card against Costello..

Gillard or Rudd will enter the leadership for the ALP, and try to reassert a particular social and economic stance, which seems to have become rather clouded since the departure of Hawke/Keating..

Other than those predictions I have absolutely no idea..

 

[veterandoggy]

if interest rates rise i will be a happy man

housing prices will fall, the interest i recieve from my ING account will increase, and i don't buy into the whole credit craze so yay for me....if it happens

sorry dude, i was referring to the bank loan interest rates

i dont think your bank account will earn you more than 7% p/a in any lifetime.

 

[Wolfowitz]

You guys are focusing on political management of the economy, which is a different thread altogether.

I think the Christening of politics will reach its peak and the racist and evangelical factions of the Lib party will form their own. Blegh.

 

[veterandoggy]

Greens will make the majority!!!






dont they wish....

 

[Enlightened_One]

Oh, and back onto the economics for a minute. Housing prices in the major cities definetly Sydney) will fall, but housing prices in regional areas will increase dramatically.

 

[Iron]

Baby boomer roll over destroys everything.
William becomes King - republic defeated again
Nats 'n Dems dry up
Costello brokers peace deal in middle east
The bomber dies of broken heart (cholesterol induced)
Labor party outlawed
Liberal party fractured (democratic liberal party, aka DLP)
Indonesia successfully invades
3rd world turns nasty on west
Prez Hillary saves America (2012), inspires world to dream again, tackles global warming. Also changes global political climate - asent of Gillard (governing from washington embassy)

 

[loquasagacious]

Baby boomer roll-over creates a country of high demand low supply workforce - Gen Ys inflated hopes can be lived out.
Baby boomers continue to get tax cuts as the state of their nursing homes is degraded.
Libs split into a christian party (christian libs + remnants of nats) and a progressive party (wet libs + remnants of dems).
Labor party looses more cohesion as votes and MPs haemorage into the Communist Party (greens/watermelons) and the progessive lib offshoot (conducted to the shrill swan song of Gillard).
Costello dies in the backbenches having successfully presided over the disintegration of the libs.
Turnbull becomes PM.
Australia becomes more asian-focused as China rises.
Condi becomes US president.

US and China go to war (australia sides with US) - everyone dies.

 

[Iron]

Never! China will fail to impress the world for the 1000th consecutive decade - ocean levels destroy east coast, ruin aust and force Indonesia to expand its borders.
UN declares America illegal, France inherits earth.
...<bit of a blur, possibly nuclear winter>
Oceania and Eurasia liberate the former United democratic monarchy of Australiasia from Eastasia. Winston looses on hit tv show, big brother.

 

[VanCarBus]

hahaha, here's my prediction, rant all u want fuckers!!!!

- John Howard will still be in power
- terrorist bombings have taken place
- racial violence very common issue
- segregation between white, black, coffees and yellows.
- labour party dies and now australia becomes one nation
- pauline hanson marries john howard
- israel is eradicated and land is given back to palestine
- china takes over the azn region and kills off any non-buddists
- Singapore assassinates all the drug dealer's globally thru associates
- artic caps melts
- pollution and global warming, seas rise 20 metres and many cities are destroyed.
- tsunamis is asia pacific region very common
- japanese fisherman kill all whale population
- antartica exposed to life threatning UV rays, ozone layer depleted, big whole there!
- alien contact is made in the USA, presidents claim they were abducted in their sleep
- the abos in australia cause massive riots and win land war now australia called aboralia. ugubunga thasdbasi is the king of aboralia, which consumes NT, west Aus and TASSY. aboralia is a major exporter of authentique abo fuel drugs and spears
- Bob carr and asn wife have their first son name ir ule
- Morris Iemma is now a freedom fighter and part of the international aboralia gorrila guerillaz.
- lebanon, turky and other 'wog' announced nation stand against the world and join as part of a liberation process to form a new nation called 'Lebaturkitaliagreekus', a nation so powerful to take on the mighty americans in a battle of freedom versus policing. this leba... nation has a total population of 3 billion, an army of 100 million suicide bombers and hectic chemical weapons.
- saddam hussein is now physically and mentally ill, spending his days in prison in a stray jacket.
- vietnam is now a national accreditted pot producing nation selling hi quality refined drugs to many countries after pot as legalised. viet pot is the best of the best, the country skyrocketeed in 2015 to become the 3rd richest country in the world.
- germany succumbs to israel who take over the country for revenge some 60 years ago.

 

[Not-That-Bright]

I predict a fascist cultural revolution. Due to our two party system, I do not see this happening from some new party, more it will probably be empowered by the coalition, and some members of the labor party. It will then break off to form its own party and attempt to take power.

 

[gerhard]

oh my god is anyone getting that isreali ad in between those two posts above??

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