Lentern, in the past two pages you've said some really really dumb things.
Brendan Nelson's a joke. He was William McInnes' punchline for the majority of that Q & A episode. While I prefer his politics to that of Thatcher's, to compare his political talents to hers is fucking ludicrous. His time as Opposition Leader saw no great "talent ruined by circumstance" but rather weakness and party compromising that saw the Liberal Party incredibly divided. His job was to unify the party, not last until the next election, but he could do neither. Maybe he couldn't build himself up, but he could've tried to knock Rudd down, but was unable to do that. He was, in short, a leader of the Coalition in a period of wasted time (this seems a traditional Liberal problem, with only Menzies, Fraser and Howard ever being real leaders of note).
Next, Gillard. Why on earth do you hate her so? Is it that you want to be a contrarian and dislike the most well regarded parliamentary performer going? More likely, do you have a strong dislike of any sign of personality on the part of a parliamentarian, hence your adulation of that blandest of politicians, Stephen Smith? I bet you love The Eagles. Yes, she voted for Latham over Beazley - in a time where Labor needed a big change in fortunes, she took a risk and chose someone who would either win big or lose big, rather than someone guaranteed to lose and who, just a week earlier, had claimed they were more conservative on all issues bar the economy than John Howard. May I remind you that Stephen Smith voted for Beazley over Rudd - I put to you a far far dumber choice than Latham over Beazley.
If you take a squiz at the history books I think you'll find i the 12 months following a change of government the leader of the opposition allways struggles or atleast according to public opinion. Beazley, Peacock, Whitlam, Snedden, infact Carmen Lawrence is the only leader of the opposition state or federal to actually lead in the opinion polls straight after a change of government. Dr Nelson was allways destined to suffer the same fate only there were at the time four other senior members of his party apparently interested in leading, Turnbull, Abott, Bishop and Costello. (the cult of Hockey came after Bishop imploded).
Nelson was clinical in his performance as leader: stay on message, plug away, present yourself as a nice guy people can relate to, stay positive, take a firm stand here and there, don't make desperate dives to the centre nor listen to the all faithful saying the party can only win government when it presents itself as well right of the incumbent govenrment, convert most policies to platitudes, he did what was needed and had he lead a loyal frontbench(or a scared one in the came of Beazley) he would have made decent inroads into the Rudd governments majority. But there was a more handsome man with a deeper, more commanding voice and atleast equal verbal dexterity to the good doctor who wanted the job. Brendan cant be blamed for the electoral cycles anymore than Kevin can be for the GFC.
As for Howard being "a real leader" I believe gulp says it all. If Simon Crean had come to the leadership in similar circumstances to John Howard II (as opposed to circa 87 where he got thrashed) he could have won. The only leaders of inferior political ability John Howard defeated or worked alongside were Hewson, Downer and Latham. The longevity of Howards government had nothing to do with "conviction", it had to do with 3 events, 9/11, The MV Tampa and the election of Mark Latham to party leader.
I hate Gillard for largely the same reason as I dislike Howard so, she is unworthy of the praise she gets. However impressive she might seem in parliament when it comes to her vote worth she subscribes to the same Latham/Keating nonsense whereby the more offensive and polarising you are towards the opposition the more effective use of your chance at the dispatch box. Atleast with Keating he was actually better at it, but she is just given points for playing the roll of the ball breaking woman. The actual lines she throws about are no better than those of the short, fat, Albanese whom nobody would dare call parliaments second best performer. And unlike Keating who made the brave calls in spite of a delicate portfolio, she has a government flooding education with money and an opposition who had workchoices in government. Hardly alot of pressure to be applied there.
The idea that Beazley would have lost 04 is absurd. But for a short period between around the Tampa Beazley have allways held the edge over Howard ever since the honeymoon period ended in 1997. His small target strategies were highly effective and his rhetoric struck a chord far more so than John Howards could. Had he gotten to fight the election Crean probably could have won it too, (actually if he was dumb enough to vote Latham probably not) the electorate needed a reason not to vote labor at that point and Latham was precisely that.
As for the Rudd/Beazley ballot I think Smith made the safe call. He knew what Beazley had going for him, he knew he had Howard's number, after being around so long it wasn't going to be a huge victory for bomber but it was an assured one. By contrast Rudd was untested as a leader: he might have had a Downeresque meltdown if he got ahead of himself or he might have done something stupid like make Gillard shadow treasurer. Under the circumstances the wise thing would probably have been to vote Beazley, a majority of ten in the house is as good as thirty really.
Spiny just ask yourself, do you think Rudd is a competent politician? If yes, do you think there might be a reason Gillard has not been given one of the sensitive portfolios of Treasury, Finance, Foreign Affairs, Immigration or Defence?