It could, yes.
In that instance I think the whole class would be affected, and not just the bottom half.
It's hard to tell, because when the distribution is distorted that much (through a large disturbance of the relativities between students) it sometimes becomes impossible to determine a monotonic conversion curve. If the curve isn't monotonic (increasing or decreasing), and has a stationary point somewhere in the range being used, the rank order of students could be changed. The bottom moderated mark is artificially 'adjusted' to prevent this, but making that adjustment affects the rest of the distribution as well.
Makes it difficult to determine causation. But considering that's what will be done when the Board moderates the marks anyway, I guess you don't really have to worry about the true cause; just the effect.
Test it yourself - <a href="/moderate.php">/moderate.php</a>