Exchange rates (1 Viewer)

Joga Bonito

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Why has Australia's exchange rate fluctuated so much agains the US dollar? i get that the GBC cause australias appreciation last year, but why did it drop so dramatically to .64 ish earlier this year? and nows its up to .90? uhh its confusing me, help?
 

gnrlies

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The main reason the exchange rate fell during the GFC was because there was an overall reduction in the risk appetite of investors. The AUD although regarded as a reserve currency nowadays, is regarded as a riskier currency to hold than the US dollar. So currency speculators sold off the Australian dollar and moved towards the US dollar. It should be pointed out that our dollar did not depreciate all that much against other major currencies. for example the euro / aus exchange rate remained fairly unchanged, and it actually improved against the pound sterling. So this wasn't something that just happed to the AUD, it happened to most currencies.

The current rise in AUD has stemmed from three factors. Firstly the australian economy has shown to be resilient in the GFC with good growth figures. So the AUD appreciated as speculators feel that the AUD is a safer currency to trade than previously (i.e. the risk appetitie concerns are no longer as much an issue). Seondly the commodities boom has continued. Much of the growth in the AUD comes off the back of the growth in China. The commodities boom explains why we almost reached parity in 2008, and it explains why we are again talking about reaching parity in 2009 / 10. Finally, as you should all know, the RBA increased interest rates and this induces a capital inflow. It has also been the trigger for many of these underlying factors to kick in.
 
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alex1992

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Yes i agree.

The RBA being the first central bank of a major economy to increase its domestic cash rate, creates a strong sense of confidence in the Australian economy, encouraging foreigners to invest in Australia due to the favourable economic future, that is expected.
 
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