sam04u
Comrades, Comrades!
- Joined
- Sep 13, 2003
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- HSC
- 2006
http://blogs.reuters.com/global/2008/07/17/is-hezbollahs-gun-diplomacy-working/
I don't think it can any longer be doubted that Hezbollah, an organisation of a few thousand organised guerillas, a handful of Politicians, and a fully operational Broadcasting Television channel (Al Manar) have managed to change the tides of history.
They've managed to repel Israeli ground forces, resist Israeli aerial bombardment, free it's captured citizens, and at the same time remain an influential factor in the region.
If the speculation is correct, that Israel was attempting to disarm Hezbollah in order to make a move on Iran, then the organization has been incredibly successful at stifling this. In May 2008, when the U.S backed Lebanese government attempted to disarm Hezbollah they failed miserably, with the capital and airport being captured by Hezbollah, and their demands being met. They later released the captured territories, having doing so gained more influence.
It is also speculated that the latest Israeli-Hezbollah prison swap was another attempt at further satisfying Hezbollah's demands in an attempt to appease them, and later pressure them to disarm them, as a lead up measure to attack Hezbollah backed Iran. Again, this failed. The end-result was Hezbollah came out as victors, and thus it has become much harder to convince Hezbollah to disarm now that the effectiveness and results of their organisation have become evident.
Israel's last resort, well initially, was to later unoccupy the Shebaa farm territory, which would be the last of Hezbollah's demand. But due to the magnificent failure of the recent hostage exchange (finding out the hostages were dead) Israelis will never agree to handing over the shebaa farm territory to Hezbollah. Especially since the soon to be ex-president of Israel, Ehud Olmert is extremely unpopular.
Basically, Hezbollah's victories have strengthened their position internally, resulted in many of their demands being met, allowed them to continue to provide their services (both in the community and as a resistance force) to the Lebanese and also most importantly have stifled the war effort on Iran. Infact, at this rate they only have to hold out for a few more months (October) and Bush will be out of the White House.
tl;dr
Nasrallah has changed the course of history.
Hezbollah is effectively resisting.
I don't think it can any longer be doubted that Hezbollah, an organisation of a few thousand organised guerillas, a handful of Politicians, and a fully operational Broadcasting Television channel (Al Manar) have managed to change the tides of history.
They've managed to repel Israeli ground forces, resist Israeli aerial bombardment, free it's captured citizens, and at the same time remain an influential factor in the region.
If the speculation is correct, that Israel was attempting to disarm Hezbollah in order to make a move on Iran, then the organization has been incredibly successful at stifling this. In May 2008, when the U.S backed Lebanese government attempted to disarm Hezbollah they failed miserably, with the capital and airport being captured by Hezbollah, and their demands being met. They later released the captured territories, having doing so gained more influence.
It is also speculated that the latest Israeli-Hezbollah prison swap was another attempt at further satisfying Hezbollah's demands in an attempt to appease them, and later pressure them to disarm them, as a lead up measure to attack Hezbollah backed Iran. Again, this failed. The end-result was Hezbollah came out as victors, and thus it has become much harder to convince Hezbollah to disarm now that the effectiveness and results of their organisation have become evident.
Israel's last resort, well initially, was to later unoccupy the Shebaa farm territory, which would be the last of Hezbollah's demand. But due to the magnificent failure of the recent hostage exchange (finding out the hostages were dead) Israelis will never agree to handing over the shebaa farm territory to Hezbollah. Especially since the soon to be ex-president of Israel, Ehud Olmert is extremely unpopular.
Basically, Hezbollah's victories have strengthened their position internally, resulted in many of their demands being met, allowed them to continue to provide their services (both in the community and as a resistance force) to the Lebanese and also most importantly have stifled the war effort on Iran. Infact, at this rate they only have to hold out for a few more months (October) and Bush will be out of the White House.
tl;dr
Nasrallah has changed the course of history.
Hezbollah is effectively resisting.
