Liberal party leadership speculation (already) (1 Viewer)

[Triangulum]

http://www.abc.net.au/news/stories/2008/04/12/2214969.htm

Senior Liberals are reportedly switching their allegiance from Opposition Leader Brendan Nelson to Malcolm Turnbull.

Dr Nelson secured the Liberal leadership in November, defeating Mr Turnbull 45 votes to 42.

Since then, his Newspoll approval rating has dropped as low as 7 per cent, before bouncing back to 9 per cent on Tuesday.

Sources quoted by The Australian newspaper suggest the Liberal Party is considering dumping Dr Nelson within months.

The sources say there are no immediate moves to remove Dr Nelson as Liberal leader, but timetables being considered factor in the Opposition Leader's budget reply speech next month, and the looming Gippsland by-election brought on by Nationals MP Peter McGauran's recent decision to quit.

http://www.abc.net.au/news/stories/2008/04/12/2215072.htm

Federal Opposition Leader Brendan Nelson says he is determined to remain at the helm of the Liberal Party.

Dr Nelson, in Melbourne for today's meeting of the Victorian Liberal Party, says he is here to stay.

"I am very determined and I will keep fighting and speaking up for everyday Australians, I assure you I'm going nowhere," he said.

Poor Brendan.

 

[boris]

Hardly news. We all knew this was coming. It was prophesied the day Brendan Nelson unwittingly took the reigns.
Suprising that it came so soon though, I was waiting for his successor to maybe let him dig himself further into a hole.

Oh that Turnbull, he is such a cunning feind. I await the day he succeeds the throne; it will numb those feelings of pain I've felt for the last 6 months, as the Federal Libs slowly disintegrated into a shell of their former selves.

 

[boris]

Um
BUT WAIT, THERE IS MORE?

EMBATTLED Liberal leader Brendan Nelson has received a standing ovation from the party faithful in Victoria, and in return he's told delegates not to worry about opinion polls.

http://www.news.com.au/story/0,23599,23525541-2,00.html

 

[Silver Persian]

If I were Malcolm Turnball, I'd wait a little while longer before challenging. Ruddles is still on his honeymoon and the media continues to masturbate to everything he says. I doubt Turnball will make much headway atm - better to wait for the tide of public opinion to turn a little further down the track.

 

[Iron]

I hope Costello strikes back
(because I fear Turnbull can win)

 

[Triangulum]

Two things I don't understand:
-the liberals didn't expect Nelson to be incompetent when they made him leader?
-why do they want to tarnish the Turnbull brand by throwing him into the 2010 election? No government in modern Australian political history has ever been defeated when it first came up for reelection, the odds of it happening this time are vanishingly small. Better to use Nelson or Bishop or Abbott (lol) as a sacrificial lamb, then knife them in 2011 and put Turnbull in for an election he has a chance of winning.

 

[Iron]

The Australian was quoting senior shadows as saying that Nelson was always just going to be a seat-warmer, but now they're worried that he's doing fundermental damage to the Party brand, which threatens their entire existence

 

[boris]

Two things I don't understand:
-the liberals didn't expect Nelson to be incompetent when they made him leader?
-why do they want to tarnish the Turnbull brand by throwing him into the 2010 election? No government in modern Australian political history has ever been defeated when it first came up for reelection, the odds of it happening this time are vanishingly small. Better to use Nelson or Bishop or Abbott (lol) as a sacrificial lamb, then knife them in 2011 and put Turnbull in for an election he has a chance of winning.

- Secretly (and perhaps not so secretly) the Libs knew Nelson was going to be an epic fail. Perhaps they just didn't realise how much of a epic failure he was going to be, and now they're scrambling to undo the damage.
- It's just a poll, and I suspect Turnbull is smart enough to disregard his popularity so early into the term. Even if they decide to turf out Nelson, I highly doubt it'll be Turnbull replacing him. Turnbull knows he is popular and I suspect most Libs would vote for him (I know I would), but if Labor has taught us anything it's that a party must go through several pairs of underpants before it'll win an election!

 

[Iron]

But only fresh underpants will do

 

[Gay Captain]

The Australian was quoting senior shadows as saying that Nelson was always just going to be a seat-warmer, but now they're worried that he's doing fundermental damage to the Party brand, which threatens their entire existence

One party state time!

 

[Triangulum]

The Australian was quoting senior shadows as saying that Nelson was always just going to be a seat-warmer, but now they're worried that he's doing fundermental damage to the Party brand, which threatens their entire existence

Meh. Both parties have had pretty crappy leaders, and it hasn't killed them. Party brands are too resilient for that.

 

[boris]

Meh. Both parties have had pretty crappy leaders, and it hasn't killed them. Party brands are too resilient for that.

I don't know man, we're kinda drifting past that whole two party dichotomy thing. Marginal parties (like the dirty Greens for example) held a substantial number of votes (considerbly more than any other election) and are growing in popularity.

 

[jb_nc]

I'm seriously just going to vote Greens hereafter because I don't really care.

I've just become so ultra-meta-ironic I don't even know what I believe any more.

 

[chicky_pie]

I hope Costello strikes back
(because I fear Turnbull can win)

because he will *WOOT WOOT TURNBULL*

and Costello is pussy since he refuse to take the position as Leader of the Opposition in the first place.

 

[Muz4PM]

-why do they want to tarnish the Turnbull brand by throwing him into the 2010 election? No government in modern Australian political history has ever been defeated when it first came up for reelection, the odds of it happening this time are vanishingly small. Better to use Nelson or Bishop or Abbott (lol) as a sacrificial lamb, then knife them in 2011 and put Turnbull in for an election he has a chance of winning.

No Prime Minister in modern Australian political history has ever lost his own seat...until Howard.

I am afraid sir that you are writing the Coalition off too early, we still have two years until the next election (assuming Rudd does not go early.) Who was the ALP's leader after the 2004 drubbing? Mark Latham? Did he look like he could defeat Howard in 2007? On the evidence in 2004/2005, no. Did it look like the next leader, Beazley could topple Howard? Probably not. It took the ALP up until twelve months before the election to introduce the would be Prime Minister in Rudd. A similar occurance may occur in the Liberal party, where Nelson may stay as leader until eighteen months or so before the next election, and then thenew leader can launch into an attack against Rudd.

Turnbull has already scored points against the economic incompetant that is the current tresurer, and is I think well liked by the wider electorate. There are a number of faults with the current government's plans, ranging from the promise of a lap top to every student, and the various economic probelsm currently afflicting us, so a Coalition victory in 2010 is not off the cards.

The Coalition need to win about eleven seats (assuming they hold their current seats) in order to obtain government, which is five less than was needed by Rudd to change the government. Whilst it is a difficult task, anyone who is writing the Coalition off in 2010 is being too hasty in their assumptions. A week is a long time in politics, and two years would be like a lifetime.

 

[withoutaface]

Cossie for leader.

 

[Rafy]

I assure you I'm going nowhere

An unfortunate choice of words.

 

[Muz4PM]

An unfortunate choice of words.

I noticed that and cringed. I wonder what will come out in the comics tomorrow about that statement.

 

[Iron]

I'm seriously just going to vote Greens hereafter because I don't really care.

I've just become so ultra-meta-ironic I don't even know what I believe any more.

Haha but I like the cheshire cat thing you do.
Reminds me of myself really

 

[sweet_as]

Haha but I like the cheshire cat thing you do.
Reminds me of myself really

Voting Green doesn't get anything done.