North Korea (2 Viewers)

[Tasteless]

Just some input in the event of a missile launch. (Note that in no way am i a Pro-American)

Although North Korea is aggressive and dangerous, the US military is more than well equipped to deal with anything North Korea may or may not have up their sleeve.

As you may or may not know, the US navy has sent destroyers to the Korean peninsula, the Army has sent an anti-ballistic missile battery to Guam and is moving more forces to South Korea, and the Air-Force has stealth planes + nuclear capable B-52 bombers in South Korea ready for use. That is what they have released to the public so it is obviously very plausible that they have also moved a lot more of their forces then they claim to have.

If Korea were to fire a missile say at Australia for whatever reason (an unlikely situation but it is North Korean and Kim Jong Un we are talking about ) the US is very well capable to destroy that missile before it causes any harm to anyone using the THAAD or missile intercepts from destroyers. After destroying the missile, i believe the United States would have send at the very least a very strong warning to Korea however more likely would be the use of deadly force. The North Korean army is a powerful one, but it is a needle in a haystack in comparison to the US army. Also note that South Korea is prepared to use deadly force against the North and has US equipment and training behind them.

There is exactly 0% chance of NK firing on Australia.

The vast majority of their weaponry is old cold war tech sold to them by the russians, with a maximum range only capable of hitting the top ~1/3 of seoul (and anything further north in SK).

The Musudan missile they transported to the east cost today has a range of ~3000km (and is believed to rank among the best they have), and if that's going anywhere it's either japan or guam (and as you mentioned the THAAD will likely destroy it if it's the latter). There is a missile launch site further north of where the missile was last seen, however long range missile 'tests' in the past have all been unsuccessful.
If the THAAD is compromised or they choose to fire on japan or SK though, who knows what might happen as russia is about the only country with passable operational air and missile defence systems.

NK army is hardly powerful either, it's been estimated half to three quarters of the country's artillery will be wiped out within two days of fighting breaking out, even faster if they move any of it forward.

 

[someth1ng]

North Korea probably won't do anything, if they do, it would be the end of them. North Korea should just give up, already.

Sent from my LG-P880 using Tapatalk 2

 

[funkshen]

No, not an elite. An underclass. Very different.

i see the point that you're making, but i would wager that it is not the peasants who are gaining access to and exploiting this technology, and that it is most likely certain privilged groups (university educated, party and industry affiliations, etc.). but this is all beside the point that the north korean leadership is sustained by propaganda and fabricated news and history, and not on real world events like tough guy posturing vis a vis the US capitalist pig dogs. ergo, their current belligerence cannot be explained away as an appeal to the masses.

 

[Tasteless]

i see the point that you're making, but i would wager that it is not the peasants who are gaining access to and exploiting this technology, and that it is most likely certain privilged groups (university educated, party and industry affiliations, etc.). but this is all beside the point that the north korean leadership is sustained by propaganda and fabricated news and history, and not on real world events like tough guy posturing vis a vis the US capitalist pig dogs. ergo, their current belligerence cannot be explained away as an appeal to the masses.

You dont think showing the populace something real (even if the context is distorted) is more substantial / convincing than showing them D grade animations of missiles blowing up enemy planes?

 

[Lolsmith]

You dont think showing the populace something real (even if the context is distorted) is more substantial / convincing than showing them D grade animations of missiles blowing up enemy planes?

he's saying that they don't need to

Kimstar can literally make up any shit he wants, and his family has for years, and the populace will believe it. They aren't threatening nuclear war because they need to let the peasants in North Korea know that they are willing to take a stand against the West.

 

[Lolsmith]

You're also overestimating the people of North Korea

Can you imagine growing up only knowing that there was one or two dudes that are literal gods on earth and that questioning that would end up with either you and your family enslaved or dead

 

[moll.]

i see the point that you're making, but i would wager that it is not the peasants who are gaining access to and exploiting this technology, and that it is most likely certain privilged groups (university educated, party and industry affiliations, etc.). but this is all beside the point that the north korean leadership is sustained by propaganda and fabricated news and history, and not on real world events like tough guy posturing vis a vis the US capitalist pig dogs. ergo, their current belligerence cannot be explained away as an appeal to the masses.

he's saying that they don't need to

Kimstar can literally make up any shit he wants, and his family has for years, and the populace will believe it. They aren't threatening nuclear war because they need to let the peasants in North Korea know that they are willing to take a stand against the West.

What if it's not the peasants he's appealing to? In such a clubby little dictatorship, the aristocracy is normally sedate until there is a sign of change or weakness at the top (namely the new Glorious Leader being only 30 years old), at which point they start fighting for control. The aristocracy have access to television, mobiles, the internet and outside sources. The commentary from experts has been mentioning that Kim Jong-Un is doing this to cement his control. I'm yet to hear one of the commentators finish that sentence with "... amongst the peasants." Maybe it's the old Crazy-Joe routine, where he's turning to his rivals in the upper-echelon of the party and saying "Don't mess with me. I'm fucking crazy."

 

[funkshen]

What if it's not the peasants he's appealing to? In such a clubby little dictatorship, the aristocracy is normally sedate until there is a sign of change or weakness at the top (namely the new Glorious Leader being only 30 years old), at which point they start fighting for control. The aristocracy have access to television, mobiles, the internet and outside sources. The commentary from experts has been mentioning that Kim Jong-Un is doing this to cement his control. I'm yet to hear one of the commentators finish that sentence with "... amongst the peasants." Maybe it's the old Crazy-Joe routine, where he's turning to his rivals in the upper-echelon of the party and saying "Don't mess with me. I'm fucking crazy."

so what you're saying is, it's about elite dynamics. which is exactly what i said, and exactly what tasteless did not say. it's well known that prior to kim jong-un, the upper echelons of the north korean leadership had a lot of success in implementing the hitler divide and rule approach to maintaining a dictatorship. what we're seeing now is the consequence of the tenuousness of that approach during the succession of a particularly weak leader.

 

[Lolsmith]

What if it's not the peasants he's appealing to? In such a clubby little dictatorship, the aristocracy is normally sedate until there is a sign of change or weakness at the top (namely the new Glorious Leader being only 30 years old), at which point they start fighting for control. The aristocracy have access to television, mobiles, the internet and outside sources. The commentary from experts has been mentioning that Kim Jong-Un is doing this to cement his control. I'm yet to hear one of the commentators finish that sentence with "... amongst the peasants." Maybe it's the old Crazy-Joe routine, where he's turning to his rivals in the upper-echelon of the party and saying "Don't mess with me. I'm fucking crazy."

Yeah fair call, that makes a lot more sense. I have no real response to this.

 

[SylviaB]

 

[Capt Rifle]

Hahaha they dare do anything to us!

 

[Praer]

Hahaha they dare do anything to us!

Neck minute...

 

[kaz1]

http://www.koryogroup.com/index.php

looks like fun

 

[SophxMusic]

If you ask my opinion, it's 90% all talk.
One, none of NK's nuclear weapons have been tested long range - their technology is far outmatched by the US
Two, NK as a country is already isolated in terms of international relations... their only strong relation is with China, and that was only because of a shared connection after WWI. This whole incident essentially amounts to a national scale tantrum by Kim because since the War, China has grown from the poor, shunned country that it was into one of the biggest superpowers in the world - North Korea, on the other hand, has remained poor. Massive debts, and almost completely reliant on food, fuel and consumer goods trade with China. Incidentally, if China wanted, it could completely collapse NK on account that 40% of their food is imported from China, and a large amount of fuel as well. But here's the catch... do you think China wants the flood of refugees coming across the border the second NK does collapse?
Three, any attempt at war would be catastrophic for NK.... China is ambivalent at best about where it stands, and is focused on long term relations. Waging war on the world would be very bad for that goal.... NK would essentially be on their own, up against the US, South Korea, as well as almost certainly Australia and Britain. If other countries felt threatened by NK's threats by proximity then no doubt they would be involved in defusing the situation in any necessary way.
Just an interesting side note, I've been to SK and visited inside the DMZ itself... you only had to see the guards from both countries standing on either side of the border, pointing guns directly at each other to know something was bound to happen soon...

 

[Capo]

1.) If North Korea attacked, they will be disintegrated by the US and South Korea in an instant. Their technology is outdated and the US's arsenal is much stronger than the North Korea's arsenal by far.

2.) North Korea's only reliable ally, China, is already reluctant to defend North Korea. Even if China decides to defend, Japan would have a legitimate reason to attack China for the grudge about the Diaoyu Islands. Speaking of which, South Korea supports China in the Diaoyu Islands conflict, so there is no reason for China to fight against them either.

3.) As mentioned by someone else in this thread, Kim Jung Un is most likely doing this to gain rapport from his people.

 

[OzKo]

China don't really give a damn about North Korea because they want that buffer from the United States. In a sense, the country is a pawn in this 'new Cold War'. You can bet your bottom dollar China will intervene and try to defuse the situation quickly on the basis of pre-existing tensions. The reason they haven't been so vocal in the past few weeks is that you'd look absolutely mad trying to defend some the calls made by NK.

In the situation that NK gets destroyed, I'd be very curious whether reunification would even be on the cards. Of course you've got the cost of rebuilding infrastructure for at least half the peninsula along with the massive shock of reintegration. Also, China won't sanction a move unless United States retreats from SK. In the end, this becomes a situation which mirrors the Cold War and relations between the US and China will be further strained.

You can definitely rule out any peace pact with the US. Koreans are really into ethnic nationalism and anything which "betrays the race" will be a national humiliation. Even in SK, there's more anti-Americanism than one might think. It's a sad state of affairs but I don't really see a real change in the situation. The best it COULD get is NK moulding itself based on China's economic and governmental structure. I don't like those odds though.

 

[pony_magician]

You dont think showing the populace something real (even if the context is distorted) is more substantial / convincing than showing them D grade animations of missiles blowing up enemy planes?

north koreans are literally insane

they've completely made up their own history. shitty animations are probably real crap to us but to them, it's probably legit

 

[zmccu3]

North Korea is angry because South Korea and the US have been doing military exercises near the border. Basically the US is sticking its thumb in everything and north Korea is being angry at everything, as usual.

Personally, I think Australia shouldn't be involved in any further wars (especially US driven ones). We need to be more like Switzerland and just be Neutral. I don't want no American/ Korean nuclear propaganda war.

Doesn't really work like that tbh. Different countries act differently. Australia has a pretty long history of being close to allies and acting accordingly. We COULD be a neutral nation, but that doesn't do us much good with a population of 22 million and way too much land to protect. I know its pie in the sky stuff but the potential threats from Asia, it doesn't do us much harm to assist other nations in return for some added security. People need to realise our total army including reserves is something like 60,000. No matter what we wont be sending many troops in.

 

[lee337]

Doesn't really work like that tbh. Different countries act differently. Australia has a pretty long history of being close to allies and acting accordingly. We COULD be a neutral nation, but that doesn't do us much good with a population of 22 million and way too much land to protect. I know its pie in the sky stuff but the potential threats from Asia, it doesn't do us much harm to assist other nations in return for some added security. People need to realise our total army including reserves is something like 60,000. No matter what we wont be sending many troops in.

huh??

 

[Okashi]

huh??

Indonesia.