Obama/McCain betting odds. (1 Viewer)

[BackCountrySnow]

Is there somewhere I can go to bet?
And what are the odds?
I need money for schoolies. =[

 

[veloc1ty]

89% to 11.2% on Intrade. You'll need a very large bet to make any good profit.

Edit: assuming you bet on Obama.

 

[BackCountrySnow]

89% to 11.2% on Intrade. You'll need a very large bet to make any good profit.

Edit: assuming you bet on Obama.

holy fuck.
Oh well, I'll just put everything I have on Obama. But those are shocking odds.

 

[Rafy]

Betfair

Barack Obama 1.09
John McCain 11.00

 

[BackCountrySnow]

Betfair

Barack Obama 1.09
John McCain 11.00

ill get moar if i tip McCain. OMG guise, shood i?

 

[Muz4PM]

Do they have betting odds for particular states? If you are willing to take the risk you may want to bet on Obama winning Georgia, or McCain winning Pennsylvania. Depends on how much of a risk you want to take and what states you think each candidate will take.

 

[BackCountrySnow]

Are these odds just for Australia?

Or is it the same in the states?

 

[veloc1ty]

Do they have betting odds for particular states?

http://politics.betfair.com/

 

[Trefoil]

Go to Intrade.com and bet on Georgia.

Intrade has it at 25% chance for Obama, but the secret there is that blacks make up 30% of the electorate, and Obama is winning early voting by like 10%+, while polls (which include those yet to vote) have Obama down about 0%-5%.

So it all depends on how many blacks, youth, women, etc turn out to vote, but I'd say the odds are in Obama's favour.

Other options are things like North Carolina because there's a very high probability they'll go Obama, but it hasn't gone Democrat before so people are conservative about betting there.

http://www.intrade.com/

 

[jb_nc]

Holy shit guys, we can make arbitrage profits here.

Betfair is paying $11 for McCain.

http://www.betfair.com/

Sporting Bet Australia paying $1.12 for Obama.

http://www.sportingbet.com.au/uipub/sport.aspx?l1id=34&l2id=351445&l3id=589112

You can make a very small risk free profit of 1-2%.

Not worth it given time and transaction costs. But if anyone out there is cashed up, get onto it.

Ok can you explain what you mean here because I have $1 million and Im ready to sink it into a sound investment such as poker machines

 

[johnnydepp]

Holy shit guys, we can make arbitrage profits here.

Betfair is paying $11 for McCain.

http://www.betfair.com/

Sporting Bet Australia paying $1.12 for Obama.

http://www.sportingbet.com.au/uipub/sport.aspx?l1id=34&l2id=351445&l3id=589112

You can make a very small risk free profit of 1-2%.

Not worth it given time and transaction costs. But if anyone out there is cashed up, get onto it.

what's this arbitrage profit you keep talking about and how do you calculate it?

 

[Trefoil]

If you are willing to take the risk you may want to bet on Obama winning Georgia, or McCain winning Pennsylvania.

The probability of McCain winning Pennsylvania is extremely low. Obama's position there hasn't changed in a long time (that is: above 50%). People incorrectly interpret a swing to McCain because McCain's position has gone up (among undecideds). But that's useless when your opponent has solidified a lead above 50% and isn't losing ground. The McCain campaign knows they've got nothing there, but they have to keep up hope, so they say they do - 'cause without winning Pennsylvania, there's truly no way McCain could win the electoral vote at all. It's similar to how he's been lying about being dead even in Iowa and New Hampshire (hint: Obama has double digit leads).

Georgia, on the other hand, is a true toss-up, for the reasons I posted above.

Compare:
Georgia: http://www.pollster.com/polls/ga/08-ga-pres-ge-mvo.php
Pennsylvania: http://www.pollster.com/polls/pa/08-pa-pres-ge-mvo.php

 

[Muz4PM]

The probability of McCain winning Pennsylvania is extremely low. Obama's position there hasn't changed in a long time (that is: above 50%). People incorrectly interpret a swing to McCain because McCain's position has gone up (among undecideds). But that's useless when your opponent has solidified a lead above 50% and isn't losing ground. The McCain campaign knows they've got nothing there, but they have to keep up hope, so they say they do - 'cause without winning Pennsylvania, there's truly no way McCain could win the electoral vote at all. It's similar to how he's been lying about being dead even in Iowa and New Hampshire (hint: Obama has double digit leads).

Georgia, on the other hand, is a true toss-up, for the reasons I posted above.

Compare:
Georgia: http://www.pollster.com/polls/ga/08-ga-pres-ge-mvo.php
Pennsylvania: http://www.pollster.com/polls/pa/08-pa-pres-ge-mvo.php

Yeah, I didn't think things in Pennsylvania would be overly rosy for McCain, but I assumed the odds would be extremely high, and if he was willing to take the risk, he would probably make a a huge load of cash(not having seen the odds) if McCain pulled off an upset in PA, however unlikely it maybe.

 

[Iron]

I hate the horserace stuff that goes on. Creates all this 'momentum' bullshit and plays to even darker populist demons who seduce undecides to pick the 'winning' side.
Heisenberg principle!
Hillary for instance - at least half her campaign was spent trying to convince people that the media were wrong in reporting that all the momentum is with Obama, and it's a close-ass race. But folks be looovin the winneh

It's cheap, it's dirty, it's everything wrong with the world

 

[withoutaface]

Holy shit guys, we can make arbitrage profits here.

Betfair is paying $11 for McCain.

http://www.betfair.com/

Sporting Bet Australia paying $1.12 for Obama.

http://www.sportingbet.com.au/uipub/sport.aspx?l1id=34&l2id=351445&l3id=589112

You can make a very small risk free profit of 1-2%.

Not worth it given time and transaction costs. But if anyone out there is cashed up, get onto it.

Probably not risk free when you take into account the possibility that both get assassinated/third party candidate gets up/whatever else.

 

[Trefoil]

A bigger risk is that the online betting agency doesn't pay out.

Yeah what happens then?

 

[Iron]

They give it to you in Change

 

[breaking]

They give it to you in Change

lol

 

[impervious182]

89% to 11.2% on Intrade. You'll need a very large bet to make any good profit.

Edit: assuming you bet on Obama.

Yeah... but it can be explained. You see gambling is a vice and that's why the odds are so good... because McCain supporters don't show vices and Obama supporters do.

Naturally if there are only Obama supporters gambling, the fact that McCain even got some percentage points is amazing!

 

[withoutaface]

Yeah... but it can be explained. You see gambling is a vice and that's why the odds are so good... because McCain supporters don't show vices and Obama supporters do.

Naturally if there are only Obama supporters gambling, the fact that McCain even got some percentage points is amazing!

What? Nevada is safe Obama.