Predicting UAIs when HSC marks come out (1 Viewer)

[*10#]

hey laz or whoeva can help
would it b possible to accurately predict a persons UAI when they receive there HSC raw marks

could u find out the mark of the person who received your assessment rank for the exam and then average that with your raw hsc mark released by the board of studies put it in your lazseeker and - hey presto get ur uai???

for example a persons raw mark for the exam in ext eng was 38/40 and they were ranked 5th in the year but the 5th placed person got a mark of 40/50 so the aligned hsc mark for this person in this subject would b 39/40 - is this correct?

if you did this for all of your subjects and then shoved them into lazseeker would u have you have an accurate uai???

or u could just wait another 24hrs and find out 4 sure - but this could b so much more fun - perhaps prepare yourself so ur not so shocked or disappointed whatever the case maybe

 

[deyveed]

You don't get your raw marks. You get aligned marks.
After getting your aligned marks, you can put them in UAIseeker and get an estimate of what you would get the following day.

 

[Lazarus]

You couldn't use the old LazSeeker, as it was only accurate for 2001.

I am hoping to have the necessary statistics at hand the day before UAIs are released so that accurate estimations can be made, however. I'll make a nice big announcement on the front page if that happens.

 

[freaking_out]

Originally posted by Lazarus
You couldn't use the old LazSeeker, as it was only accurate for 2001.

I am hoping to have the necessary statistics at hand the day before UAIs are released so that accurate estimations can be made, however. I'll make a nice big announcement on the front page if that happens.

hey, just out of curiosity, where do u get these statistics, and how r they formulated?

 

[flyin']

The main idea would be to get the percentage of people in each band in each subject, to estimate where you are approximately in each of your subjects, ie. your percentiles.

Then use, recent scaled marks for your percentiles.

Add them to get an Aggregate.

Then convert the Aggregate to a UAI.


(Or just ask someone who seems to know what they're doin', ie. Laz. )

 

[LaZy_KoReAn]

Originally posted by deyveed
You don't get your raw marks. You get aligned marks.
After getting your aligned marks, you can put them in UAIseeker and get an estimate of what you would get the following day.

Hey out of curiosity, are aligned marks higher than raw marks or is raw marks lower than aligned marks?

If the above is the case

What happens with lower scaling subjects say industrial tech or ummmm.. standard english?

 

[flyin']

In general, aligned marks are much much much much higher than raw marks.

 

[LaZy_KoReAn]

Originally posted by flyin'
In general, aligned marks are much much much much higher than raw marks.

Thats interesting...

Then what with scaled HSC mark?

This is sooo confusing, like SERIOUSLY i'm trying to understand this but my THICK head can't understand it

What's the case of raw marks being the scaled HSC mark? Is it the case? OR is scaled HSC mark much lower than raw marks?

 

[sneeble]

How do you know that flyin? I was under the assumption that we had NFI when it came to the relationship between raw & aligned marks... Please enlighten me

 

[LaZy_KoReAn]

Yes i will be surprised if it was the case then i have a BIG chance!

 

[Lazarus]

Originally posted by LaZy_KoReAn
What's the case of raw marks being the scaled HSC mark? Is it the case? OR is scaled HSC mark much lower than raw marks?

See my post in your other thread for a brief analysis of the relationship between raw HSC marks and scaled HSC marks.

Originally posted by sneeble
How do you know that flyin? I was under the assumption that we had NFI when it came to the relationship between raw & aligned marks... Please enlighten me

Whilst it is true that no information regarding raw marks is divulged, it is a simple statistical fact that a transformation of marks from a 0 - 100 scale to a 50 - 100 scale will inflate them. In the vast majority of courses, the number of marks below 50 is negligible.

 

[flyin']

Originally posted by sneeble
How do you know that flyin? I was under the assumption that we had NFI when it came to the relationship between raw & aligned marks... Please enlighten me

Okay, in general, if you get a Raw of 50% in Mathematics, for example. I can safely say, your HSC mark will be at least 70+. And this is true for many many subjects.

I mean, I did the HSC and I can tell you, almost for certain, all my raw marks were much much much lower than my HSC aligned marks.

Originally posted by LaZy_KoReAn
Then what with scaled HSC mark?

What's the case of raw marks being the scaled HSC mark? Is it the case? OR is scaled HSC mark much lower than raw marks?

The 'Aligned' HSC mark (these days) is a reflection of what Band your in, as determined by BOS.

The HSC marks are not scaled for your UAI. The raw marks themselves are 'Scaled' by UAC for your UAI.

 

[LaZy_KoReAn]

Oh OK!

I got the picture now

Thanks alot!

And i'm afraid of the fact compared to 2003 (prediction) and 2002 prediction there is a WIDE gap, that is scaring me

Thanks AGAIN! seriously

 

[LaZy_KoReAn]

I mean, I did the HSC and I can tell you, almost for certain, all my raw marks were much much much lower than my HSC aligned marks.

THAT BOOSTED MY CONFIDENCE EVEN MORE!

And to your statement HSC mark 70+ is for many subjects with 50% raw mark, is it even true for a VERY LOW scaling subject to scale that much? or is there a certain number?

So are you saying is even possible for General Maths to be scaled 70+ with raw mark of 50% in reference to your statement?

 

[flyin']

It may or may not be true. But if it was, I wouldn't be surprised.

Of note, HSC aligned marks are immaterial (don't matter), it's the UAC scaled marks which are of any importance, ie. rank in each subject.

 

[LaZy_KoReAn]

Originally posted by flyin'
It may or may not be true. But if it was, I wouldn't be surprised.

Of note, HSC aligned marks are immaterial (don't matter), it's the UAC scaled marks which are of any importance, ie. rank in each subject.

You meant scaled HSC marks and rank in each subject in the State right? Sorry for bothering you, but this is really confusing for a newbie =/

And before you meant raw 50% scaled to 70%+ SCALED HSC MARK right? and aligned mark is different?

Sorry sorry

 

[Lazarus]

Originally posted by LaZy_KoReAn
You meant scaled HSC marks and rank in each subject in the State right?

Scaled HSC marks and state ranking (i.e. state percentile), yes.

Originally posted by LaZy_KoReAn
And before you meant raw 50% scaled to 70%+ SCALED HSC MARK right?

No. He would have been referring to aligned marks of 70%+.

 

[LaZy_KoReAn]

Yeah i thought so too, just trying to keep my hopes up lol

But a raw mark of 50% being a aligned HSC mark 70%+

I STILL CAN'T BELIEVE IT

Then why are people fighting over trying to get 80%+ raw marks, strange?

Because if raw mark of 80% that is like aligned hsc mark of 100% doesn't make sense ... hoped it was true hahaha

 

[Lazarus]

It's not that simple - you don't have 20 marks simply added on. The aligning decreases the higher you get. If 50 is aligned to 70, a mark of 75 might only go up to 85, and so on.

No-one knows the exact details though, unfortunately.

 

[deyveed]

Say that I got an aligned mark of 86 in Maths this year, would i be able to say that i beat everyone with aligned marks of 85 and lower in Maths last year?