Predicting UAIs when HSC marks come out (2 Viewers)

[Lazarus]

Originally posted by deyveed
Say that I got an aligned mark of 86 in Maths this year, would i be able to say that i beat everyone with aligned marks of 85 and lower in Maths last year?

Theoretically, yes. Aligned marks are meant to be comparable from year to year (the point of a standards-referenced HSC, so that you can see whether the candidatures are improving). Your raw and scaled marks may or may not be higher, though.

 

[deyveed]

Cool
Thanks for that!

 

[*10#]

ok thanks for that everyone but one thing i dont get

so the board of studies marks released are aligned marks and these are usually lots higher than just your raw mark

and that stuffs everyone up coz they think they are gunna go really good and then they get a lower UAI then expected
- last year ppl with marks in 70s got UAIs like 60 and under

so what happens between the aligned and hsc marks
are they just scaled and then the aggregate determines UAI

in that case is it scaling that stuffs these ppl up who get average marks in average subjects???

( sorry im so confused )

 

[sneeble]

Cheers Laz & flyin.

 

[Lazarus]

Originally posted by *10#
so what happens between the aligned and hsc marks
are they just scaled and then the aggregate determines UAI

in that case is it scaling that stuffs these ppl up who get average marks in average subjects???

It is the raw marks that are scaled. Raw marks are aligned, and raw marks are scaled. The scaling process doesn't artificially inflate marks like the aligning process does; but even if it did, the UAI is a rank so it wouldn't matter anyway.

 

[ilovemrchips]

One more question (sorry folks =)

As you said, the popping up of aligned marks probably decreases near the top end. I know that you can't be sure of course, but if you get in the high 80s or low 90s, would the difference between your raw and aligned marks be very minimal? Or could you get to high 90s? Or is this relative to the difficulty of each subject? Or does no one really know? (cept those in the know at BOS?)

 

[Lazarus]

We have no idea, it's impossible to discriminate to that level of precision - really can't even guess.

But we do know that you need a raw mark of 100 to receive an aligned mark of 100.

 

[ilovemrchips]

cool thanks =)

so the kids who get a raw mark of 99 in an exam really do get gipped!

 

[*10#]

ok so after all that
would it be pointless to enter your aligned HSC marks that you get on the 18th into lazseeker to estimate your UAI?

since these aligned HSC marks are not used by UAC your raw HSC marks are used to calculate UAI

is there another possible way to predict accurately on the 18th - i know its only one day to wait but i am a very impatient person!!!!

 

[flyin']

But aligned marks give a good indication of your respective ranks in each subject. And by these ranks (which indicate percentiles), you can use previous year's scaled marks based on percentiles to produce an aggregate which can be used to get a UAI. The aligned marks can't just be put in, because they are produce different scaled marks each year.

 

[Minai]

Originally posted by *10#
ok so after all that
would it be pointless to enter your aligned HSC marks that you get on the 18th into lazseeker to estimate your UAI?

It would be fairly off, as flyin' said, scaling varies from year to year etc
I entered my marks in last year and Lazseeker gave me something like 96.80, but what I actually got was 95.25

 

[Huy]

Still pretty close, though - only one and a half UAI 'points' away.

I think there's a +- 2 UAI mark (fudge) anyway with predictions.

 

[TheKey]

the terminology in all this gets very confusing so can someone help me sumarise all this using ragerunners flowchart and the terminology he used there.

when we get our HSC results, we are getting 3 marks, so here is my question.

Does

1. Examination Mark = Aligned HSC Exam Mark

2. Assesment Mark = Aligned Assesment Mark

3. HSC Mark = Aligned HSC Mark

however at the end of all this, (assuming the above is true) since everyone goes though the same process of Aligning, the best indication of your UAI would come from the Aligned HSC Marks in combination with Band.

So for example, i get a mid band 5 in english, then looking at last years band info (top 6.95% got band6, 48.6% got band5 in ENG ADV 2002), i can say im ~top 30% of the state. So doing this i can estimate my percentiles for each subject and get a good estimate of UAI using that UAI Seeker. Would this be right?

 

[Xayma]

Originally posted by TheKey


1. Examination Mark = Aligned HSC Exam Mark

2. Assesment Mark = Aligned Assesment Mark

3. HSC Mark = Aligned HSC Mark

however at the end of all this, (assuming the above is true) since everyone goes though the same process of Aligning, the best indication of your UAI would come from the Aligned HSC Marks in combination with Band.

So for example, i get a mid band 5 in english, then looking at last years band info (top 6.95% got band6, 48.6% got band5 in ENG ADV 2002), i can say im ~top 30% of the state. So doing this i can estimate my percentiles for each subject and get a good estimate of UAI using that UAI Seeker. Would this be right?

1: Yes
2: Yes
3: Yes

You can't take your band or mark and use that to estimate your percentile granted it probably wont change much it still will change. And the quality of the canditure changes each year so assuming you add a fudge factor it should be pretty close.