scaling (2 Viewers)

[EATAPIE]

If you look in one of the other threads (not sure which one now), I've explained mathematically why the cut-off would be between 40 and 47/120.

Essentially, Keypad came 1st in the state with a raw exam mark of 108 or 109/120 (according to him, most likely the former). His aligned exam mark was 99. Now, since the marks are linearly interpolated between band cut-offs, this data illustrates that the Band E4 cut-off must be <41/120 (if Keypad got 108) or <48/120 (if Keypad got 109).

I've said myself that it seems very low, but provided what Keypad has said is correct, I can't come to any other conclusion. And he is adamant that he didn't put pen to paper for 11 or 12 marks in the HSC exam.

When did Keypad do HSC? Was it 03? Cos i think last year only 27% got e4. So if keypad's year and 04 was around the same, does that mean that approx 73% of ppl got below 48/120 raw? sounds unlikely.

 

[blackfriday]

that actually is a very, very good question. i dont think that so many people in state cant get more than a bit over the first three questions correct.

 

[ying123123]

yep sure is a good question
i dont think he can answer that question!!!!!

 

[~ ReNcH ~]

Yep, I know. And that's why it seems so odd.

I can't remember exactly how many students got an E4 in 2003, but the percentage was greater in 2003 than in 2004. The proportion of students getting an E4 in MX2 has slowly dropped since 2001. Someone posted up some tables on another thread, and I think 45% of the 2001 candidature attained an E4.

Nevertheless, the numbers suggest that the cut-off was <48/120. To be more realistic and ignoring the data from 2003, I'd still say the cut-off for 2004 would have been around the low-mid 70s. In that case, my guess is that the 2005 cut-off will be around 70/120. I think that sounds more plausible...yea?

 

[_dhj_]

Awww.. can't it b in tha 60s?? Damn I left out so many Q the most i can get is like 70 something.. crap

 

[EATAPIE]

Yep, I know. And that's why it seems so odd.

I can't remember exactly how many students got an E4 in 2003, but the percentage was greater in 2003 than in 2004. The proportion of students getting an E4 in MX2 has slowly dropped since 2001. Someone posted up some tables on another thread, and I think 45% of the 2001 candidature attained an E4.

Nevertheless, the numbers suggest that the cut-off was <48/120. To be more realistic and ignoring the data from 2003, I'd still say the cut-off for 2004 would have been around the low-mid 70s. In that case, my guess is that the 2005 cut-off will be around 70/120. I think that sounds more plausible...yea?

Yeh, the percentage has been dropping..that's a worry for us. Any idea why? is it cause more ppl are doing it bcos they think it scales well, but they aren't good enough at it, that's why less ppl are getting e4?
yeh, i've been hoping it'd b around 70/120. I've heard few ppl on bos say ~70. Hopefully that's right. I'm looking at max of ~78/120.

And yes, more plausible. Thanks rench.

 

[blackfriday]

in the good old days they used to scale 4u maths like crazy. i remember when i was in year 7, anyone who did 4u maths suffered from some sort of incurable insanity and getting 35% raw was seen as a great mark. it seems that all that awesome scaling has been shared around with the 4u english people, while 3u maths scaling has also improved.

 

[~ ReNcH ~]

Yeh, the percentage has been dropping..that's a worry for us. Any idea why? is it cause more ppl are doing it bcos they think it scales well, but they aren't good enough at it, that's why less ppl are getting e4?
yeh, i've been hoping it'd b around 70/120. I've heard few ppl on bos say ~70. Hopefully that's right. I'm looking at max of ~78/120.

And yes, more plausible. Thanks rench.

Well, if you look at the stats, the MX2 candidature has actually increased by around 1000 students since 2001, when it was around 2300. Obviously, the criteria for getting into the course have become less stringent.

The bright and gifted mathematicians will always do MX2 and a slackening of the entry criteria is unlikely to be an "incentive" for the already gifted students to enter the course. So it's likely that those additional 1000 students aren't necessarily the bright and gifted mathematicians.

In that scenario, I think what's happening is that approximately the same number of students are attaining E4s, but proportionately fewer are. So I don't think it's that implausible that 75% of the candidature could get < ~50/120. Consider 2001 when 45% of the candidates got an E4 (i.e. ~ 1000). Compare that with 2004 in which 27% of the candidature received an E4 and that gives you a figure of ~950. So as you can see, the number of candidates getting an E4 has actually remained fairly constant....looking at it that way, maybe it's not so unlikely that 70% of the candidature received <50/120 in the exam in 2003, because if you "eliminate" those additional 800-1000 students, then the proportion of students getting less than 90/100 actually remains about the same.

That said, I still think that the 2005 cut-off will lie around the high 60s or low 70s.

 

[Trebla]

I'm hoping for a band E4 when I do my HSC next year. Our school only has about 15-20 band E4s every year for Extension 2, and there's like 50+ band E4s for Extension 1. So according to my current position at school based on these previous results, a band E4 in Extension 1 would be pretty much almost guaranteed, while I'll need to work a bit to get it for Extension 2.

That said, I still think that the 2005 cut-off will lie around the high 60s or low 70s.

A mediocre mark is all that is needed to at least get Band E4 for Extension 2?!
Wow, I didn't realise that Mathematics Extension 2 was aligned so highly let alone scale so highly, until now......

 

[Raginsheep]

It's always been aligned (the mark you recieve from the BOS) highly. However, its scaling (which is what you get from UAC) is more dependent on the 4u students' results in 3u in comparison to the 3u students. Also, scaled marks are based on you're raw marks and thus, alinging will have no effect on them.

This is what I understand and may/ may not be true. For more info, you should really ask Laz.

 

[justchillin]

Why are u talking about this? Maths is over, let the board worry about this stuff...there's not much more u can do

 

[ishq]

I'm hoping for a band E4 when I do my HSC next year. Our school only has about 15-20 band E4s every year for Extension 2, and there's like 50+ band E4s for Extension 1. So according to my current position at school based on these previous results, a band E4 in Extension 1 would be pretty much almost guaranteed, while I'll need to work a bit to get it for Extension 2.

A mediocre mark is all that is needed to at least get Band E4 for Extension 2?!
Wow, I didn't realise that Mathematics Extension 2 was aligned so highly let alone scale so highly, until now......

ONLY 15-20?
Yes...okay.....

 

[EATAPIE]

Well, if you look at the stats, the MX2 candidature has actually increased by around 1000 students since 2001, when it was around 2300. Obviously, the criteria for getting into the course have become less stringent.

The bright and gifted mathematicians will always do MX2 and a slackening of the entry criteria is unlikely to be an "incentive" for the already gifted students to enter the course. So it's likely that those additional 1000 students aren't necessarily the bright and gifted mathematicians.

In that scenario, I think what's happening is that approximately the same number of students are attaining E4s, but proportionately fewer are. So I don't think it's that implausible that 75% of the candidature could get < ~50/120. Consider 2001 when 45% of the candidates got an E4 (i.e. ~ 1000). Compare that with 2004 in which 27% of the candidature received an E4 and that gives you a figure of ~950. So as you can see, the number of candidates getting an E4 has actually remained fairly constant....looking at it that way, maybe it's not so unlikely that 70% of the candidature received <50/120 in the exam in 2003, because if you "eliminate" those additional 800-1000 students, then the proportion of students getting less than 90/100 actually remains about the same.

That said, I still think that the 2005 cut-off will lie around the high 60s or low 70s.

Excellent point. Thanks for that. Makes perfect sense. Ok, now to wait for the results to come out...
And yeh, go for 100UAI rench. I'll look for your pic or name on the 17th. Make sure u post it on bos if u get it.

 

[~ ReNcH ~]

Excellent point. Thanks for that. Makes perfect sense. Ok, now to wait for the results to come out...
And yeh, go for 100UAI rench. I'll look for your pic or name on the 17th. Make sure u post it on bos if u get it.

lol...I'll be here at 6am on the 16th and 9am on the 17th (whether or not I get 100 )

 

[ying123123]

hey rench since ur an expert of the scaling thing

wat would u think a mark of 55-60 will get ya in 4 unit?

 

[blackfriday]

well if you read previous posts you wouldnt have to ask rench.

In that case, my guess is that the 2005 cut-off will be around 70/120

 

[haboozin]

well if you read previous posts you wouldnt have to ask rench.

yea 70/120 sounds good to me..
btw how's mr miller..
I heard he does General 'cause he wrote this yrs HSC.

 

[blackfriday]

yeh we call him rowdy rod, and every general maths lesson is a party. when the dragons lost to the tigers they really gave it to him the monday after.

 

[Trebla]

ONLY 15-20?
Yes...okay.....

Is that good or bad? lol
Well in 2003, it was 13 and last year it was 17. Although the school appears getting better at Maths, the school's performance in English is bloody shocking and in great decline, thus lagging the school's overall performance. Anyway, back to Maths, and 15-20 is not a stunningly good number of band E4s for Extension 2 (with regards to the proportion of everyone doing it) as opposed to Extension 1.
Hopefully this year and next year it will rise.

 

[VQ]

lol...I'll be here at 6am on the 16th and 9am on the 17th (whether or not I get 100 )

Anyway, when EXACTLY (what time) does the UAI and HSC marks released? I know it is on Dec 17 but dunno what time....I need to prepare myself (such as get myself back together after falling into pieces seeing my marks, either in a good way or bad way)....