HSC 2015 MX2 Marathon (archive) (6 Viewers)

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seanieg89

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Re: HSC 2015 4U Marathon

Player A is serving to Player B in a tennis match.

He wins each point with probability 0 < p < 1.

Given that both players are equally likely to win a service game if the score is 0-30, find:

a) the value of p

b) the probability that A wins a service game from 0-0.
 

braintic

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Re: HSC 2015 4U Marathon

Player A is serving to Player B in a tennis match.

He wins each point with probability 0 < p < 1.

Given that both players are equally likely to win a service game if the score is 0-30, find:

a) the value of p

b) the probability that A wins a service game from 0-0.
Does this question allow for the possibility of multiple deuces?
 

braintic

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Re: HSC 2015 4U Marathon

Yep, that's the fun part :).
Hm ... I got a massive equation which I had to type into Wolfram Equation Solver.
It gave an approximate answer of p=0.660566
Do I need to check my equation?
 

InteGrand

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Re: HSC 2015 4U Marathon

Player A is serving to Player B in a tennis match.

He wins each point with probability 0 < p < 1.

Given that both players are equally likely to win a service game if the score is 0-30, find:

a) the value of p

b) the probability that A wins a service game from 0-0.
Let (this is the probability of player B winning a given point).

a) Let DA be the probability that A wins the game given that the game has just reached deuce.

Then

i.e. .

Now, the probability that A wins the service game from 0-30, PA, is given by





Since B is equally likely to win from 0-30, PA must equal ½.



From here, I'm getting a sixth-degree polynomial in p which I'm not seeing how to solve. Maybe a different approach needed?
 

braintic

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Re: HSC 2015 4U Marathon



From here, I'm getting a sixth-degree polynomial in p which I'm not seeing how to solve. Maybe a different approach needed?
Different equation to mine, but Wolfgram gave the same answer.
 
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FrankXie

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Re: HSC 2015 4U Marathon

Let (this is the probability of player B winning a given point).

a) Let DA be the probability that A wins the game given that the game has just reached deuce.

Then

i.e. .

Now, the probability that A wins the service game from 0-30, PA, is given by





Since B is equally likely to win from 0-30, PA must equal ½.



From here, I'm getting a sixth-degree polynomial in p which I'm not seeing how to solve. Maybe a different approach needed?
I don't really know about the tennis rule, but I doubt 4qp^3 might be wrong, because if B win the first game over ?
 

InteGrand

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Re: HSC 2015 4U Marathon

I don't really know about the tennis rule, but I doubt 4qp^3 might be wrong, because if B win the first game over ?
According to the tennis scoring system, Player B needs to win two (not just one) of the next four points to win the game (without going to deuce).
 

seanieg89

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Re: HSC 2015 4U Marathon

Oh sorry guys, yeah I doubt you can find a nice surdic expression for p. Characterisation as the root of a certain polynomial is fine :).

The main point was to find a way to handle to concept of deuce, questions with that theme (a very elementary random walk with stopping rule) appear in several HSC/Trial questions from memory.
 
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Drsoccerball

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Re: HSC 2015 4U Marathon

I wish i knew the rules of tennis...
 

seanieg89

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Re: HSC 2015 4U Marathon

Dw, they obviously don't use any games/sports in HSC questions without explaining relevant rules lol.
 

InteGrand

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Re: HSC 2015 4U Marathon

NEXT QUESTION





Using , the equation becomes

.


Discriminant is .

Therefore, by the quadratic formula, .

Letting , we will get two quadratic equations:

.

These can be solved by the quadratic formula and using square roots of complex numbers where necessary.
 
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