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2007 Federal Election - Coalition or Labor/Howard or Rudd? (1 Viewer)

Coalition or Labor/Howard or Beazley?

  • Coalition

    Votes: 249 33.3%
  • Labor

    Votes: 415 55.5%
  • Still undecided

    Votes: 50 6.7%
  • Apathetic

    Votes: 34 4.5%

  • Total voters
    748

frog12986

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This may seem reactionary, and somewhat irrational, however I have firmly developed the belief that the Liberal Party leadership should be handed over to Costello as soon as is reasonably practicable.

This has developed primarily out of the sense that the electorate has stopped listening to Howard, and the notion that he is central to the need for change.

Reasons for leadership change -

- It instigates a sense of change within governmental ranks, and although he is perceived as 'arrogant', Costello does have his record as Treasurer, and without the extent of 'political baggage' associated with Howard.

- If Howard continues until the election, and loses, Costello would realistically have lost any chance of gaining the prime ministership. The likelihood of becoming Opposition Leader and gaining electoral succes in one term would be more than unlikely. He might as well have an attempt while he has the opportunity. If he loses, and presuming Howard would lose as well, the party has at least explored the alternatives.

- In any event, the electorate is fully aware that Costello will succeed Howard should he win the election. As one commentator stated, Costello would much rather be remembered for being Prime Minister at some stage, than 'Howard's Treasurer'.

- New leadership not only stimulates electoral interest, but also stimulates te case for ministerial change in the key portfolios. Turnbull to Treasurer, Bishop to Health, Abbott to Industrial Relations, Nelson remain in Defence etc

- The government needs to gain traction in the area of 'change' and provide an 'alternative' to the current situation. Regardless of the political issues that exist, the mood for change is more aligned to government longevity and 'staleness'.

Does Costello have much chance of winning? I don't think so. However, the party should at least explore other options, as the current formula, whilst successful in the past, is unlikely to achieve the desired result.

Will this happen of course? No chance..

Surely this has to supercede 1993 as the 'unwinnable' election..
 
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_dhj_

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I agree with frog even on his views on leadership change in the Liberal Party but it is only in the last few days that I have come to the belief that Labor will win the election. If Howard does stay on to fight until the end however, it will be interesting to see what trick he will use this time to distract the Australian people from the real issues like industrial relations. I believe this time he may try and discredit Rudd for his 'connections' with China and somehow insinuate that under a Rudd government Australia will not be independent but will be influenced by authorities in China. That is just my prediction though, and yes it is a bit out there. This has a chance of success given the hysteria Tampa was able to garner.
 

Iron

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Pfft, this was all said in 2004. "Oh Howard must be kicking himself for not moving on when he had the chance" ra rara.
Costello's image has been consistently attacked by Labor in almost every campaign since 96 - usually posters of some gawd-aweful smirk. They attack him because polling has consistently shown him to be unpopular with the public. Completly charmless. Keating resents the comparison.
Downer has always been a joke (not a bad one either). I think Abbot would be seen as too divisive/Lathamesque.

If the fresh face/new blood idea means anything, they'd go with Turnbull. I think he'd be very liked, and would steal Labor's elite vote. A hysterical party would be very tempted by him. But he's faar too untested.
It will be a very very close run thing with Howard. He's at his best as the underdog. He's always been written off too early, and revelled in the golden shower of victory he inevitably gives.
Just wait for the last week. It's always a killer.
 

Iron

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Turnbull's probably good enough for me. About time for a colonial governor again. Enlightened despot.
I think his business connections would convince the 'battlers' that their money is safe with him, which is all they care about anyway.

But there is a huge wind of change feeling. I believe that most people just want politics to shake it up a little. Unlike Menzies, we dont love Howard enough to indulge him with office beyond his prime.
 

wheredanton

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frog12986 said:
Surely this has to supercede 1993 as the 'unwinnable' election..
This is a very sad post :\
Where is your ticker? If Costello was made leader tomorrow the Liberals would loose, guaranteed.

I find all this talk about the Liberals loosing hilarious. Mr. Frog, as pointed out on the 730 report last night not everyone is an engaged in politics many months out from an election as you or I are. Most of the electorate isn't engaged at all with anything mildly political. Yes there is a mood for change, but a mood for change that doesn't rival the sweeping into power of Whitlam.

- Unemployment is low.

- Interest rates are low and inflation figures are steady.

- Real wages are up.

- Everyone has a plasma screen.

- Retail confidence is high.

- The Liberals have a big majority and, objectively, haven't really done anything to offend Mr. and Mrs. politically apathetic.

Antony Green said it and he is a freak. The Liberals should only start to panic 2 weeks out from the election if the polls don't change.
 
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EmperorHirohito

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I heard that labor govt is gonna send navy ship to attack japanese whalers. I think it is a very stupid thing to do destroying relations over a what? a fish!
 

frog12986

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It's the change factor. And although I agree with Iron that Turnbull is the best alternative for the electorate, he is too fresh. This is his first term, and I don't seem him having the support of the majority of the party at this point, particularly as both he and Costello are from the moderate factions.

This election will be about more than just the key economic indicators. It will be about instigating change in the Australian political landscape. Whichever way that occurs, through Rudd or indeed an alternative Coaliton leader, it will be the deciding factor.

Either way, we know that the leadership won't change before APEC..
 

Not-That-Bright

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I think the absolute worst the liberals could do at this point is to start making drastic changes/look like they're crumbling away. If they replaced howard with costello it would be a failure imo.

If the fresh face/new blood idea means anything, they'd go with Turnbull.
I've always liked brendan nelson... but I know that's not going to happen at least before 1 or 2 others have a shot :eek:

It will be a very very close run thing with Howard. He's at his best as the underdog. He's always been written off too early, and revelled in the golden shower of victory he inevitably gives.
Agree with this 100%
 
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Not-That-Bright

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That guy is an absolute fucking idiot. He came to my high school a few times and God he's a fuckhead, rude and idiotic.
oh ok, well I guess he might make a bad leader then, but I was thinking more about views/opinions.
 

frog12986

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Tulipa said:
That guy is an absolute fucking idiot. He came to my high school a few times and God he's a fuckhead, rude and idiotic.
I met Dr Nelson a couple of times and experienced the complete opposite. Honest in his views, down to earth and open minded.

The only thing that would challenge his leadership aspirations is his somewhat unsual appearance..
 

Stott Despoja

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frog12986 said:
The only thing that would challenge his leadership aspirations is his somewhat unsual appearance..
Despite his 'success' in the education portfolio, it's unlikely that Dr Nelson will be trusted with a leadership role any time soon given that he was once a member of the ALP (it wasn't a teenage flirtation with the enemy, after all).
 

frog12986

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Stott Despoja said:
Despite his 'success' in the education portfolio, it's unlikely that Dr Nelson will be trusted with a leadership role any time soon given that he was once a member of the ALP (it wasn't a teenage flirtation with the enemy, after all).
True. A former President of the AMA I beleive?

It is interesting how Labor has entrusted their leadership in a person who's 'hero' is the founding father of the Liberal Party. Although the neo-liberalism of modern politics is very different to the principles on which the party was developed, it is interesting nonetheless.

In fact, Mr Rudd's first speech as newly elected Opposition Leader seemed to take ideas from Menzies words in 1949.. "We as a nation are at the crossroads. We must choose our road. Upon our decision will depend the future and fate of this nation"
 

Tulipa

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frog12986 said:
I met Dr Nelson a couple of times and experienced the complete opposite. Honest in his views, down to earth and open minded.

The only thing that would challenge his leadership aspirations is his somewhat unsual appearance..
When he's not sucking ass and you hear him making comments about girls with Down Syndrome that's where the rude idiocy comes into play.
 

Iron

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frog12986 said:
In fact, Mr Rudd's first speech as newly elected Opposition Leader seemed to take ideas from Menzies words in 1949.. "We as a nation are at the crossroads. We must choose our road. Upon our decision will depend the future and fate of this nation"
That's about the most generic thing a politician can say. I've not heard Kevin attach any heroic status to Menzies. Pig Iron is rather hated in Labor circles as an anglophile blimp who squandered the legacy of Curtain and Chif (much as some say this government is squandering the Hawke/Keating legancy.
lol squander
 

frog12986

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Iron

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Yeah that was interesting. Rudd's a clever bugger. But I still think that if Kim was leader/alive today, he would physically be Menzies incarnate.
 

Sparcod

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I'm very impressed by both major parties at the moment. It'd be really difficult to spell out the flaws of each party. This ain't like the state elections where I found that neither of the both parties were up to a good standard.

In my opinion, John Howard is a bit egocentric and that today's high economic growth rates do add greatly to his self-pride. To him, that may as well be his life's 'biggest achievement'.

If I went up to Howard and said "...mate, there's more to life than just economic growth", he'd firstly flatten me and then shove me into a paper-shredder.
 

Sparcod

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No, I was suggesting that Howard has economic growth to pride himself on.

Sorry. It was either me contradicting myself or me not giving a good valid explanation. I apologise.

By the way, both sides are putting up a very strong challenge in my view.
 

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