2007 Federal Election - Coalition or Labor/Howard or Rudd? (1 Viewer)

[Stevo.]

Do you think Malcolm Turnbull would be in the best position to take over leadership of the Liberal Party? Ain't Wentworth becoming increasingly marginal even though it's always been in conservative control?

 

[jb_nc]

If you can get a +1% swing to you against a national swing of -6% and a state swing of -6.5% your seat probably isn't that marginal.

 

[Nebuchanezzar]

Do you think Malcolm Turnbull would be in the best position to take over leadership of the Liberal Party? Ain't Wentworth becoming increasingly marginal even though it's always been in conservative control?

Well the boundaries supposedly caused it to be more marginal, but something happened to increase his vote. Guess all the aristocrats out on the harbour thought they better band together to protect themselves from the ALP. Watch out guys.

No he won't. The party will make concessions on what Rudd wants. He was the sole person who led the party to power, not the team who almost didn't exist during the campaign; probably half of Rudd's future Cabinet didn't get any airtime during the election at all, but that void was filled by Rudd himself. He better rule his caucus with an iron fist like Menzies because no one in Australia wants stupid ALP factional fighting.

And this will matter to who now that they're in power? He's got control now but if he takes the party in a direction it doesn't want to go in he's not going to be able to maintain support. I can't think of any specific examples of the party dumping someone who wants to take it in a different direction, but I can't think of any examples in the liberal or state parties either. I guess the only example I can come up with is how the electorate dumped Howard when he wanted to take them down that workchoices route. But hey, the ALP dumps leaders that are doing moderately well and rescuing them from a rut (Beazley) - if the party as a whole feels threatened by Rudd then he won't last.

Of course, I don't believe that he'll do anything that he hasn't already said he'll do, which the majority of the party seems to think is rather swell. He won't have to rule with an iron fist because the party loves him, he has a moderate agenda and there's nothing to indicate he'll do anything that the party doesn't want.

He'll do nothing for progressivism? Since he's already promised and indicated that he indeeds to carry on through with all those progressive agendas he outlined in his election campaign (that education and broadband crap for instance, apologising to aboriginies) I don't really see how that's at all true. In terms of social matters though, that's a different story. I would tend to agree that he might not be the most socially progressive man out there, but the party is moreso than the liberals, so I'm fairly happy about his being elected. It was either him or Howard...

The Greens will have no influence on the Labor caucus because I think the Coalition will act in their interests and if it's a choice between passing ALP legislation or ALP legislation with the added kookiness of the Greens I think the LNP will choose the former. To say the ALP won't continue with further market based reforms is just ignorant.

Who suggested that they wouldn't?

 

[MaNiElla]

So apparently Australia's new prime minister is Paul Rudd.

lmao

 

[withoutaface]

Yeah it was a bullshit scare campaign. Just like the interest rates bullshit in 2003. Deal with it.

My point is that the ALP have taken the moral high ground on this and I'd like to drag them back down to earth. And while the leadership scare was factual, the 'taking workchoices further' one sure as fuck wasn't.

I think the Coalition will act in their interests and if it's a choice between passing ALP legislation or ALP legislation with the added kookiness of the Greens I think the LNP will choose the former. To say the ALP won't continue with further market based reforms is just ignorant.

Rudd will also hold the possibility of a DD election over the new LNP leader's head which will influence their decision about how to conduct themselves in the senate.

On a sidenote I'd recommend everyone jump on with Nelson at $4.00 while they still can, his chances of taking it are much better than 25%.

 

[atreus]

while many kept a low profile during the campaign, i think rudd's frontbench will have a lot of potential. i especially look forward to seeing people like tanya plibersek, tony burke and bob debus as federal ministers. now to see what portfolios they get. any predictions?

 

[Nebuchanezzar]

Plibersek said she wanted the housing one. She seems pretty genuine about it. I hope she gets it.

 

[_dhj_]

On a sidenote I'd recommend everyone jump on with Nelson at $4.00 while they still can, his chances of taking it are much better than 25%.

Yeah Brendan Nelson is the only viable candidate in my mind. Neither Turnbull nor Abbott is electable.

 

[withoutaface]

I think Turnbull's electable, but at the moment he probably doesn't have the backbench support.

 

[Triangulum]

Anyone got info on how the Senate will look as of July 1? All I've got is that Nick Xenophabe or something like that is in....an SA independant. Apart from that, all I know is the Libs + Stephan Fielding have the majority until June 31. ALthough Barnaby Joyce is going to cross the floor on Workchoices....apparently.

The new Senate will (probably) be:
37 Coalition
1 Family First
1 Nick Xenophon
5 Greens
32 Labor

So if the Coalition opposes a piece of legislation, Labor will need the Greens, Xenophon and Family First to pass it.

 

[withoutaface]

Coalition has an outright majority until July 1...

 

[Triangulum]

Howard has been quickly turfed out of the official prime ministerial website.

 

[bazookajoe]

Who remembers the kilometres of "OMFG HOWARD's RETIRING" wrap that was used to dress booths just 2 days ago? Well it seems that the (Labor) NT Chief Minister has just retired, mid-way through her term and just 48 hours after the ALP won a federal election based on retirement scares.

Did I mention the hypocrisy of it all?

Yeah the Chief Minister of the Northern Territory retiring would really change my vote given that I live in Sydney. Nobody outside of marginal seat areas of the NT would actually care about this, and the fact that they didn't know about it until after the election hardly makes your point valid

 

[bshoc]

Yeah Brendan Nelson is the only viable candidate in my mind. Neither Turnbull nor Abbott is electable.

Turnbull is far more electable than Nelson, in fact Abbott is as well, Nelson's ineptness as defence minister would make him far too easy to destroy in a campaign.

 

[Iron]

Turnbull would easily nick a raft of young Rudd supporters imo. I see him as by far the most attractive and competitive option for the Libs, but meh.

 

[jb_nc]

Turnbull is the best choice by farrrrrrrr, this is a chance for the Liberals to reinvent themselves as a party which IMO they need to do. Socially liberal (or progressive) and economic rationalist party would be very attractive to many Greens/ALP voters who vote on social issues.

Dr Nelson is a dickhead and Mr Abbot is a religious fundamentalist. No thank you.

 

[Smithereens]

Traitor.

 

[withoutaface]

Turnbull would easily nick a raft of young Rudd supporters imo. I see him as by far the most attractive and competitive option for the Libs, but meh.

I think he's better placed to do that once the shine comes off (oh dear, how many times have we heard that this year?).

 

[atreus]

not only will turnbull be strong opposition, and he already acts like a prime ministe, but he also has the business and social contact the lib party needs to restrengthen the base and raise funds.

also, do the 3 nominees have running mates or will 2nd most popular become deputy?

 

[Nebuchanezzar]

Plus he's smooth. You know, he has that aura about him of being informed politically and socially. Plus he looks like my uncle. Go Turnbull!

EDIT: I want a strong opposition to keep the ALP on their toes, of course.