2007 Federal Election - Coalition or Labor/Howard or Rudd? (1 Viewer)

[Generator]

Given that we had a thread of this nature prior to the 2004 election, I thought that it would be a good idea to throw this one up so that it may set the scene for the threads that are sure to emerge (and continue) whenever next year's federal election is announced.

In two party-preferred terms, which party are you likely to support in the House of Representatives? Is there any particular reason why you lean this way? Also, if you are preferencing the ALP or the Coalition, which party is going to carry the 1 on your ballot sheet? Is your vote for the Senate going to be along the same lines as that for the House of Representatives? If not, why not?

Though this thread does come with a focused poll, it would be great if everyone who votes could also takes the time to contribute to the thread in some way .

 

[Iron]

Re: 2007 Federal Election - Coalition or Labor/Howard or Beazley?

Too early to tell. But Labor winning office is pretty inconceivable, even if Howard bows out.

But there are still countless unpredictable events that could tip the balance. A huge credit squeeze would see casualties in the millions (stupid baby boomer prisoners to interest rates) and is Labor's only chance, being the more compassionate party.

I'd probably vote Labor, with this knowledge in mind (and my seat is safe ALP). But I think that there will be a good swing back to Labor anyway, after the shock swing against them last time and the no doubt conservative Beazley campaign. This will set the next leader up for a narrow victory against Costello in 2010/11.

 

[gerhard]

Re: 2007 Federal Election - Coalition or Labor/Howard or Beazley?

DEMOCRATS BABY! OH YEAH

but seriously, im voting democrats

edit: actually theres probably no democrat running in my electorate, so i dunno

 

[Iron]

Re: 2007 Federal Election - Coalition or Labor/Howard or Beazley?

DEMOCRATS BABY! OH YEAH

but seriously, im voting democrats

edit: actually theres probably no democrat running in my electorate, so i dunno

It's practically certain that they'll be slaughtered. I think they qualify for something like 10k in campaign funds, compared to >20mill for the biggies. Business will probably throw more than usual at the Libs, due to the I.R. stuff

 

[Generator]

Re: 2007 Federal Election - Coalition or Labor/Howard or Beazley?

In the House of Reps I'll be preferencing the ALP and voting for the Democrats - I have always been torn between the two parties, yet given the way that the votes determine the levels of funding distributed to each party, I think that it's best that the Dems recieve all the help that they can get.

For those of you who have been here for some time, it should be quite clear as to why I'm preferencing the ALP, but just for the record, I consider myself to be a centre-leaning social democrat, and I cannot abide by the mantra of the Coalition, especially as it is given form within the IR 'reform' agenda and its continual need to stress 'choice' over quality for all in education.

In the Senate I'll be voting for the Dems and preferencing the ALP (at first), and that's because, despite the Dems' imminent death, I support the notion of keeping the bastards honest. It's a shame that they tore themselves apart trying to determine whether they were a party of the centre or a party of the centre-left to left, because from this point on we are likely to be stuck with the Greens as the third party in the Senate. Though I do, by and large, agree with the Greens' social programme regarding personal liberties and the like, the Senate needs its third party to be one that is practical, not one that is forever protesting.

With regards to leaders of the ALP, I must admit that though I'm not a fan of Kim Beazley, I'm not going to let this determine my vote given that I consider the policies to be more important than the leader. I would prefer to see Julia Gillard lead the party, but as she's of the Left, we all know that that isn't going to happen any time soon (read: before the election of ~ 2010, at the very least).
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As to the actual result, I agree with Iron in that it is too early to predict a result, especially in the Senate.

 

[Iron]

Re: 2007 Federal Election - Coalition or Labor/Howard or Beazley?

But at the very least, you'd expect the Coalition to lose control of the Senate. The Oz standard of fairness will see that, surely!
It would be great if Labor got control of the senate, and strangled the minors to death. Block supply/bribe Major-General Jeffery/sack government. Then King Kim wages expansionist war against south-east asia (im convinced that this is his ultimate goal)

 

[kami]

Re: 2007 Federal Election - Coalition or Labor/Howard or Beazley?

I suppose I lean mostly toward apathy - I do not want another Howard government in any form, but Labor is rather uninspiring. If pressed to vote, which I will be, I'll probably go for a lesser party candidate that leans closer to Labor's politics but isn't Labor.

I definitely want the Senate to be re-arranged - sif have the government control it.

 

[Generator]

Re: 2007 Federal Election - Coalition or Labor/Howard or Beazley?

Re. Iron: Actually, I expect the Coalition to lose the Senate (just), but I don't know whether they will lose seats to the ALP or the Greens (here's to hoping that I'm giving the Greens more credit than they deserve).

 

[poloktim]

Re: 2007 Federal Election - Coalition or Labor/Howard or Beazley?

In the Senate I'll be voting Greens. I do feel the Democrats are dying, and I don't know of any of their policies. I always do the major vote (not the '1' above the candidate you want, but number the candidates until you've exhausted numbers), so after I vote for all greens candidates, I'll move on to Labor, then Independants and minor parties. The Coalition has abused their power and won't be getting any votes from me because of that. Therefore I see the need for Labor and the Greens to control the Senate. I'd *like* to see a fair number of Greens in the Senate, but fat chance.

As for the House of Representatives? Jenny George will win. I can vote for Family First (but I'd rather be hacked to death with an axe), and it won't change the simple fact that Jenny George will win. Of course to ensure that, I'll vote for her anyway. Seeing her in the Lower House asking questions is nice, anyway. She's so polite.

If (probably when) we have another term with our all knowing overlords, I'd like to see our all knowing opposition parties be able to keep them in check.

 

[Iron]

Re: 2007 Federal Election - Coalition or Labor/Howard or Beazley?

Re. Iron: Actually, I expect the Coalition to lose the Senate (just), but I don't know whether they will lose seats to the ALP or the Greens (here's to hoping that I'm giving the Greens more credit than they deserve).

Hopefully nothing will come of FF (their only senator on a primary of <2%)
Im not sure who will benifit more from the death of the Dems (Greens or ALP)
The Dems started as a middle-ground of the major parties (a Lib split), when politics was probably at its most adversarial (Whitlam/Fraser). When the two parties converged to a neo-liberal platform, the Dems found themselves on the left of the ALP - so maybe the Greens will win it.

Im really looking forward to the campaign actually, just for the sake of it. Labor will be outspent. Not only will the Libs get more business donations/fundraising, but they'll use govt $ to play up their strengths/curb their weakness. Last time it was the Terrorism ads [alert, not alarmed] & Strengthening Medicare - around 150mill.
Labor will have to address the economy better than Latham, and they are (Pact with Middle Australia etc). But they cant spend too long on it - the apathy problem sees politics reduced to word association (Nat. security/economy = Libs. Heath/education = ALP)
It would really help Fed Labor if NSW was lost to the Libs.

I think that Kim was robbed of the PMship in both 98 and 01. Narrowly outcampaigned in nasty, non-policy ways. It's not fair to tag him as a loser and write him off. Opposition, the "dog shit on the boot of democracy" (Latham) is likely to do anything to you, but Kim's remained pretty consistent. I think he would make an excellent PM. It's the ALP I dont trust.

 

[Rafy]

Re: 2007 Federal Election - Coalition or Labor/Howard or Beazley?

Shall vote Liberal. (My seat of North Sydney is held by Joe Hockey by a significant margin)

This policy of abolishing AWAs has really turned me completely off Labor (albeit admittedly i did not view them favourablly to start with). They seem to posses a history of misguided spontaneous policy: troops home by christmas, GST rollback etc etc.

With the economy likely to begin a slight downturn in future years, a complete destruction of business confidence (as abolishing AWAs + other labor policies would likely do) is not helpful. Labor's economic credibility is not healthy, especially at a time that economic management is especially required. Labor may take the popularist position, but such policies are not desirable at this time.

If Labor did win, i suspect Beazley would last only a single term.

On another note, come the election i intend to make significant note of Labor's internet pornography proposal when attempting to sway my fellow student friends. Those still living at home would need to ask their parents to specifically unblock pornographic materials. (as under labor it would be opt-out, not opt-in of blocking at ISP level). Yes, Its insignificant in the grand scheme of things, but i think it may just sway some of the more politically apathetic students away from labor. Not to mention its a completely unworkable proposal.

 

[TerrbleSpellor]

Re: 2007 Federal Election - Coalition or Labor/Howard or Beazley?

One question i have always wondered, is why anybody would vote for the Democrats? They are the most pathetic and uneventful party.


If anybody seriously believes the ALP has a chance of winning with that fat tard as their leader, they are (A) kidding themselves or (B) a member of the ALP (which also entails (A)). Sorry, but they have NO chance unless John Howard the the liberals turn insane and say that they want to islamise Australia or something crazy like that - which isn't going to happen.

God Beazely is anoying, and what is more exacerbating is the people of his party a) are in denial b) are powerless to remove him and c) have no alternative that is really that much better. Why don't the ALP just concede defeat, bow out of politics all together and let the greens take over the role of opposition.

 

[Valeu]

Re: 2007 Federal Election - Coalition or Labor/Howard or Beazley?

God Beazely is anoying, and what is more exacerbating is the people of his party a) are in denial b) are powerless to remove him and c) have no alternative that is really that much better. Why don't the ALP just concede defeat, bow out of politics all together and let the greens take over the role of opposition.

Spot on. Gillard is their only hope - with luck she'll beat Rudd to the position after Beazley loses. Until then, the more that Kim Beazley differentiates from the Liberal Party in terms of policy (as in AWA abolishment) the greater the chance he has of becoming PM. For now, the Greens offer the only real alternative to the Liberal Party position on economic and social policy. They have my vote.

 

[walrusbear]

Re: 2007 Federal Election - Coalition or Labor/Howard or Beazley?

i'll be voting labor

am just hoping to win back senate majority
i've lost hope of seeing Howard's reign as PM end anytime soon

 

[frog12986]

Re: 2007 Federal Election - Coalition or Labor/Howard or Beazley?

Whilst the government has made some recent errors, errors that are expected after 10 year in office, I have absolutely no confidence in the wishy-washy platform of Labor, nor in their ability to manage the macro elements of economic repsonsibility. Too often, they attempt to appease an array of political pressure points which leads to promises a plenty, and often contradictory standpoints.

Last week I heard of a policy slogan they're adopting, something to the effect of "we live in a society not an economy". This type of attitude furthers the minimal confidence I have in the ALP in ensuring that the economic management of the country remains strong andviable. No matter what type of political spin they attempt to place upon the slogan, the fact remains that social prosperity and the like, are undopubtedly improved through economic prosperity. Sacrifice the latter, and the consequences to the former are immense. A lesser ability to spend, reuced ability to gain employment, greater financial pressures and the like. Economic management isn't an end in itself, but rather a means by which social support and welfare can be generated.

What we do need however, is for someone in the Liberal Party to initiate a change in attitude towards infrastructure and tax reform, and ensure that the benefits of economic sustainability are translated into tangible benefits for the electorate. Although micro and macro policies cannot both be overly zealous and have expansionary effects on the economy simultaneously, a ten year platform outlining the future for Australia, in regards to reform and infrastructure, would be the first step by government to prove to the electorate that they are completely serious about Australia's economic and social future prosperity.

 

[MedNez]

Re: 2007 Federal Election - Coalition or Labor/Howard or Beazley?

My main erk with Labor is the fact they can't even keep a stable party.

They keep changing leaders. Beazley lost twice, and now he's back. Crean and Latham lost once, and they were boo'ed into the distance. Latham was at least a POPULAR candidate, the only time both party leaders have been popular for a while. So they chuck him out, and bring someone who has lost MORE elections back in. :\

They keep having power battles for leadership.

They keep having internal problems without being able to manage anything else.

The NSW State Labor Govt keeps putting us in massive debt. Liberals come in, raise taxes to pay it back, everyone gets angry and votes Labor back in, and we start the vicious cycle all over again. Labor refuses to blame Bob Carr for the mishandling of millions of dollars. This gives me less confidence in the general Labor party.

If a party can't:

(a) Be stable internally
(b) Keep one damn leader
(c) Realise that bringing back a leader who kept losing won't help
(d) Manage funds correctly

Then why could they control a nation?

I remember from the last election, one of Liberal party ads listed each Labor gov't for the last 50 ish? years, and the state of the economy afterwards, and how each one put us in debt. This is mirrored in the state govt as I said above. Why would I want to damage the economy so?

I'll be voting Coalition. I think Howard has done more good than bad (if even just a fraction of a difference), and maybe he should step down, but the party is solid and successful. Not crumbling.

 

[withoutaface]

Re: 2007 Federal Election - Coalition or Labor/Howard or Beazley?

I'll be voting Labor this time round.

EDIT: No.

 

[Iron]

Re: 2007 Federal Election - Coalition or Labor/Howard or Beazley?

Latham wasn't popular. The Tassy Forests policy was unforgivable, he lacked experience and terrified people with his crude manner and politics of envy. He also resigned, if you recall.

Leadership battles are inevitable in Opposition. Look at what happened to the Libs during their 13yrs in the wilderness. Howard was the survivor. He was never popular. At a time when Lib politics were at their global height, he 'kept losing'. But he was consistent and held on (he also wasnt Keating).

The charge that Labor cant be trusted with the money is as old as the Liberal Party itself. It's bullshit. In case you didnt know, the bulk of the 04 Lib. advertising was misinformation. The RBA never endorsed the lie that interest rates would rise under Labor, even though their name was attached to lib ads. I'm not going further into the economy, but things weren't exactly rosey when Howard was treasurer under Fraser.

Everyone was saying that the Libs were finished as a party in the late 80s/early 90s. Given the present, it's silly to say the same about Labor.

 

[walrusbear]

Re: 2007 Federal Election - Coalition or Labor/Howard or Beazley?

reading this board you'd think the country would fall apart with a labor government

 

[frog12986]

Re: 2007 Federal Election - Coalition or Labor/Howard or Beazley?

The charge that Labor cant be trusted with the money is as old as the Liberal Party itself. It's bullshit. In case you didnt know, the bulk of the 04 Lib. advertising was misinformation. The RBA never endorsed the lie that interest rates would rise under Labor, even though their name was attached to lib ads. I'm not going further into the economy, but things weren't exactly rosey when Howard was treasurer under Fraser.

Everyone was saying that the Libs were finished as a party in the late 80s/early 90s. Given the present, it's silly to say the same about Labor.

That was a claim by the ALP in attempt to derail the campaign. The Liberal advertising stipulated that the record shows that the 13 years preceeding the Coalition Government consistently displyed higher average interest rates than under the tenure of this current government; not too difficult to understand.

Noone has said that Labor is finished, nor have they endorsed the Liberal Party under that flop Malcolm Fraser.

As Howard as reitterated time and time again, his commitment is his record in office. Some will attempt to attribute this purley to the micro reforms of the 80s, but the fact remains, in comparison to Whitlam, Hawke and Keating, the fiscal management of the present government has facilitated the full benefits of all the microeconomic reforms, and economic climate. Labors also has the added pressure of acting in the interest of unions and other minority interest groups which ultimately reduces it's ability to achieve the best economic results for the mainstream.