Australian Politics (6 Viewers)

[Lentern]

um no

how many fucking times weve heard in the past 3 years that JULIA GILLARD'S career as pm is about to end soon

no fuck off youre going to have to wait till the next election im afraid

Gillard will be gone by September. If she goes sooner it'll probably be Crean or Smith, if it happens later Rudd's momentum will be too great to stave off.

 

[Garygaz]

crean? nononono, if the alp put crean in, i suspect that the libs will also have some form of attempt at a switch up from tony. against gillard they are fine with him, but i think the general perception is that he's quite a negative leader as opposed to someone who is a visionary (not sure we should even use this word in australian politics). i'd say they'd put turnbull in against either rudd or smith.

 

[Garygaz]

oh and i also strongly believe not many australians would feel comfortable getting behind crean.

 

[funkshen]

i can get behind cream

 

[Lentern]

crean? nononono, if the alp put crean in, i suspect that the libs will also have some form of attempt at a switch up from tony. against gillard they are fine with him, but i think the general perception is that he's quite a negative leader as opposed to someone who is a visionary (not sure we should even use this word in australian politics). i'd say they'd put turnbull in against either rudd or smith.

I agree that Crean is the wrong move but those are the noise coming out of Sussex street. His bravado defenses of Gillard (or his harsh attacks on Rudd) are playing well with the big chunk of caucus who believes she is a good Prime Minister but not a great politician. I gather Shorten is not wanted for the leadership, seen as too tricky. I agree Abbott might have some trouble holding on if Rudd or Smith became leader, particularly Rudd but the two main threats are Hockey and Morrison. Turnbull rubbed a lot of people the wrong way as leader and has been too nakedly ambitious since he lost the leadership but I've heard recently he has had some success rebuilding, but from a very low base. Apparently Bishop in terms of factional (or however it works in the libs) at the moment is more or less the leader of the moderates and their candidate but she won't contest the leadership unless its vacant (ie Abbott resigns) so she would likely recontest the deputy leadership alongside one of the three names I just gave. From his own faction Robb is the only remote thread to Abbott, and their supporters much prefer Abbott.

 

[qawe]

that's why I love News Ltd

 

[soloooooo]

I am getting bloody sick of Julia Gillard. It is time the Labor members showed some courage and brought back Kevin Rudd as leader, even if it is only to save many of their own seats.

 

[soloooooo]

Gillard can no longer be trusted. We need Rudd back.

 

[Lolsmith]

lol

 

[Lentern]

Four corners big investigation, did Gillard consider challenge beforehand, next week do bears shit in the woods?

 

[soloooooo]

I voted for Gillard. Never again.

What was the point of Gillard even doing that interview? She is just hurting herself by bringing up the issue of how she became PM again.

 

[funkshen]

Four corners big investigation, did Gillard consider challenge beforehand, next week do bears shit in the woods?

Four corners big investigation, Lentern apologises for politicians anywhere to the left of Liberal.

a preemptive "just jokes"

 

[Chemical Ali]

Four corners big investigation, did Gillard consider challenge beforehand, next week do bears shit in the woods?

I would only trust a politician who decided to become the leader of a national major party on the spur of the moment with no prior planning or consideration

Wouldn't you agree?

 

[Azure]

http://www.smh.com.au/opinion/polit...ms-loyalists-turn-on-rudd-20120217-1teic.html

Very interesting.

I'm definitely no fan of Rudd, but the way he's played this out is very clever.

 

[Rafy]

Four corners big investigation, did Gillard consider challenge beforehand, next week do bears shit in the woods?

The point is that she would have us believe that it was a spur of the moment thing. Her version is not credible. Does anybody care if she pre-planned it anyway? Why act all shifty over it?

I do wonder what she'll do after she is deposed though. Go to the backbench? Leave politics? It would be pretty humiliating for her. History would not treat her well.


Also, any predictions for Rudd's deputy and treasurer?

 

[Azure]

Serves her right to be honest.

I wouldn't hold it against her if she actually admitted that she was plotting his downfall for weeks. You don't make a call like that instantly.

One of her biggest flaws is that she alienates people by patronising them. Rudd is the complete opposite. I mean, even if you hate his politics, it's pretty hard to hate the guy on an individual level.

 

[Lolsmith]

no it isn't Kevin Rudd is a sniveling little brat lol

 

[Lolsmith]

I reckon Swanny will stay on as Treasurer

wouldn't mind seeing Shorten get somewhere higher, I like the cut of his jib

 

[soloooooo]

The point is that she would have us believe that it was a spur of the moment thing. Her version is not credible. Does anybody care if she pre-planned it anyway? Why act all shifty over it?

I do wonder what she'll do after she is deposed though. Go to the backbench? Leave politics? It would be pretty humiliating for her. History would not treat her well.


Also, any predictions for Rudd's deputy and treasurer?

Rudd will lead the party again almost certainly (whether that means he is opposition leader or prime minister though is still out for debate).

For deputy I'd say either Greg Combet or Bill Shorten & whoever of those two does become deputy will take the treasury position. Gillard would probably be offered Education again.

 

[Lentern]

The point is that she would have us believe that it was a spur of the moment thing. Her version is not credible. Does anybody care if she pre-planned it anyway? Why act all shifty over it?

I do wonder what she'll do after she is deposed though. Go to the backbench? Leave politics? It would be pretty humiliating for her. History would not treat her well.

You'll recall I was in the minority of people who consistently defended Rudd and criticized Gillard on the night and in the immediate aftermath of the putsch. Frankly I was astonished anyone bought the story that it was a spontaneous decision, I also couldn't believe people bought the story that Rudd was going to lose, or rather that changing leaders a matter of weeks before heading to an election improved their chances. I think Manne was right in comparing her to Mcmahon, an unpopular man who undermined and challenged a more popular prime minister in Gorton. Because of the brief tenure of her office though she probably wont be that well remembered generally.

Also, any predictions for Rudd's deputy and treasurer?

I reckon Swanny will stay on as Treasurer

wouldn't mind seeing Shorten get somewhere higher, I like the cut of his jib

If Rudd comes back Swan and Arbib are the two most definite casualties. By all accounts Rudd's relationship with Swan is about the most toxic in of any in the party, Rudd and Gillard make it work because they need to in their positions but Swan and Rudd pretty much don't make eye contact. Swanny nearly sixty years of age would probably go off to the backbenches and retire at the next election. Arbib as is well known was one of the plotters and also has a very bad relationship with Rudd now but he is also not a particularly popular minister nor is his profile that high among the non political nerds. He would be sacked from cabinet too.

If Gillard wanted a job she would get it and I wouldn't be surprised if she did want one but a Rudd comeback would mean there would be debts to be repaid so it wouldn't be treasury, foreign affairs, attorney general, leader of the house or any of them. Health might be a decent bet, she has served in that portfolio before and while she might not be a good enough politician to lead, she would more than have Peter Dutton's match.

Shorten will stay in cabinet, Rudd doesn't want him but it would look too dysfunctional/infighting to demote him so he'll probably stay put in IR. Expect a few public appearances where they're both grinning happily and making lame jokes together in the immediate aftermath of the leadership change. But Rudd will probably assign a parly sec to Shorten's department whose one of Rudd's closest confidants.

Top tip for treasurer seems to be Bowen. He's a minister who keeps getting promoted, used to work in the treasury as assistant treasurer and was basically the first Gillard supporter to defect to Rudd about six months ago. Earlier on Emerson was mentioned, he has a background in economics and a bit like Tanner actually has a go at explaining stuff rather than reciting party lines, he'd be a good option but he appears to have made the bizarre move of supporting Rudd in 2010 before defecting to Gillard. Smith is the most popular minister in the government after Rudd so he'd naturally be in the running as well but as Rudd's former foreign minister I imagine he'd just slot back to foreign minister to fill the gap Rudd becoming PM would create. Mar'n has also been mentioned but I can't see it happening, he is one of the few ministers who is publicly supporting Rudd so I think what they're really saying is that he would be promoted, treasury seems a stretch.

Smith is top choice for deputy if he can be persuaded to defect he would be Rudd's choice (not because of any great friendship but for the politcal capital that Smith has.) If Smith remains loyal to Gillard, Bowen, Ma'rn and Albanese have all been touted. I personally think to keep the party popular with women, Rudd might prefer a female deputy as has been Labor's habit since 2001. Roxon is supporting Gillard, Macklin is a bit of a has been, which leaves Plibersek who I'm pretty sure is a Rudd supporter and a pretty popular minister.

Also if Rudd came back I think you'd see Crean do a bit of a Tanner and retire for personal reasons. He's made his views on Rudd far too public, even Shorten handles himself better. My tentative prediction is a Rudd cabinet would look something like:

PM: Rudd
Deputy/Foreign Affairs: Smith
Treasurer: Bowen
Leader of the House/Attorney General: Albanese
Leader of the Senate/Defence: Chris Evans
Finance: Mar'n
Health: Gillard
Education: Garrett
Infrastructure: Wong
Immigration: Plibersek
Trade: Emerson
Workplace relations: Shorten
Climate change: Combet
Regional Australia/local government: Roxon
Communications: Conroy
Environment: Carr