Australian Politics (8 Viewers)

[badquinton304]

I couldn't care less who wins the state election. O'Farrell is hopeless so is Rees, I really don't think the liberals will do any better than labor.

 

[chicky_pie]

I couldn't care less who wins the state election. O'Farrell is hopeless so is Rees, I really don't think the liberals will do any better than labor.

How could you predict that? Liberals haven't been in power for over 10 years, now go back to your cave and come out when it's 2011 and vote LIBERAL.

 

[chicky_pie]

You see the temptation for me is that oppositions with it in the bag tend not to rock the boat, so having spent a whole campaign converting policy into platituds they change very little once in government, hence I can't imagine O'farrell doing anything exciting for NSW anyway. So it would be fun to be part of the team that won the unwinnable. Plus what is O'farrell actually going to do to improve NSW anyway? It is a state with neglected infrastructure and a debt, a coalition government might curtail the debt but aren't going to do anything for infrastructure.

Liberals have a good reputation when it comes to managing the economy. And how could you say that Barry O'Farrell is not doing anything 'exciting'? If state Liberal party have a lot of money poured into the party, it will be for good use to spread their policies and much more to the mass public, but Labor has the upper hand - they're sucking the Liberal party dry - they have spin doctors, media advisers etc, Barry O'Farrell has little people around him to prep him up. This is why you don't see much media attention to the Liberals, because of Labor.

 

[badquinton304]

How could you predict that? Liberals haven't been in power for over 10 years, now go back to your cave and come out when it's 2011 and vote LIBERAL.

Actually the longer a government has been in power particularly after 2 terms then the higher probability that the public will vote them out. With Rees being a fucking embarrasment, at this point in time it is most probable that the Liberals will win the next election and I do not really care who wins because no matter what they promise no one will have the funds to deliver.

 

[Rafy]

The latest round of State Newspolls has shown massive jumps in support for state labor governments on the back of the spike in support for the federal ALP. That is all except NSW.

http://blogs.crikey.com.au/pollbludger/files/2008/12/081220alp2pp1.gif

 

[Trefoil]

Greens did stunningly this year. Massive support increases and some resonating Senate votes and positions (mostly at Rudd's expense - e.g. climate change and Internet filtering). Rough support levels based on state election results, polls, etc:

ACT: 20%+
Tas: 20%+
NSW: 14%
Vic: 14%
SA: 12%
WA: 12%
QLD: 8%
NT: N/A, between 10% and 20%.
Nation-wide support: 11%.

House seats liable to fall to the Greens next election: Balmain, Coogee, Heffron, Marrickville in NSW. And I don't have much data on the other states, but the seats of Maya and Melbourne look very likely to go green.

On the Senate side, the Greens look like they'll reach quota in a bunch of states next election, most on primary votes alone this time. Those states are: Tasmania, NSW, Victoria, South Australia, Western Australia. They'll gain a seat in Queensland if they get preferences from Labour or Liberals. They won't gain any seats in ACT and NT because territories have few Senate seats.

So it looks something like 6 House seats and 8 Senate seats for the Australian Greens next election.

Parliament should get very interesting next decade.

EDIT: for reference, last election they got 8% average House support, but no seats, 9% average Senate support with 3 seats (5 Senators total, because Senate only elects half its members each time).

 

[moll.]

Greens did stunningly this year. Massive support increases and some resonating Senate votes and positions (mostly at Rudd's expense - e.g. climate change and Internet filtering). Rough support levels based on state election results, polls, etc:

ACT: 20%+
Tas: 20%+
NSW: 14%
Vic: 14%
SA: 12%
WA: 12%
QLD: 8%
NT: N/A, between 10% and 20%.

Not bad considering they had single digit support in most states a year ago. They even increased in QLD.

House seats liable to fall to the Greens next election: Balmain, Coogee, Heffron, Marrickville in NSW. And I don't have much data on the other states, but the seats of Maya and Melbourne look very likely to go green.

They should gain 6 or more House seats next federal election, 4 minimum.

On the Senate side, the Greens look like they'll reach quota in a bunch of states next election, most on primary votes alone this time. Those states are: Tasmania, NSW, Victoria, South Australia, Western Australia. They'll gain a seat in Queensland if they get preferences from Labour or Liberals. They won't gain any seats in ACT and NT because territories have few Senate seats.

So, with the 3 Senate seats from the 2007 election, that looks like 8 or 9 Senate seats for the Greens by 2011, and a definite 12 Senate seats by 2014.

Parliament should get very interesting next decade.

Are those numbers at the beginning the percentage increase on the Green's previous rates of support, or is that their current share of the popular vote?

 

[Trefoil]

Current share of popular vote.

 

[Rafy]

The Rees policy to charge for student travel has been abandoned.

 

[Lex152]

I like the Greens party in principle, and would like to see them develop stronger policy and platforms. With the greens I put a lot of faith in Bob Brown, and when he goes I reckon the greens will have to prove themselves once again.

On Lib/Lab politics... I really doubt Labor will in next election, the government revenue is pretty screwed, but I can't se liberals doing much better. I think like the past federal liberals the state labor have just ridden out the state outlook without interfering to improve results.

Major problems include outgoing tax revenue (GST) which is creates a leakage from the NSW economy, a sustained drought crippling exports and a poorly planned future direction. When the libs do get in I would love to see what they try to fix our economy.
I consider selling public assests as a public loss, and not a measure to fix things...

 

[Lentern]

Liberals have a good reputation when it comes to managing the economy. And how could you say that Barry O'Farrell is not doing anything 'exciting'? If state Liberal party have a lot of money poured into the party, it will be for good use to spread their policies and much more to the mass public, but Labor has the upper hand - they're sucking the Liberal party dry - they have spin doctors, media advisers etc, Barry O'Farrell has little people around him to prep him up. This is why you don't see much media attention to the Liberals, because of Labor.

Sate liberals "manage the economy" roughly means maintain a budget surplus which they achieved by flogging government assetts to gain sums of money at the expense of long term sources of revenue and then wonder why Bob Carr cut funding for basic infrastructure, did no major tax reforming and yet managed to rack up a deficit.

 

[Lentern]

I like the Greens party in principle, and would like to see them develop stronger policy and platforms. With the greens I put a lot of faith in Bob Brown, and when he goes I reckon the greens will have to prove themselves once again.

More so than you can imagine. My aunt is a memberof the greens and ran in a safe liberal seat at the last election, for a party that talks up "grass roots democracy" If Brown has an idea he's keen on then it pretty much becomes the unanimous position of the Greens. With that being said I have the greastest respect for Brown and I guess it's a bit of the ideal leader is a benevolent dictator theory.

When he retires though there is going to be no Greens mp with "executive authority" so to speak so it will be interesting to see if they can maintain the growth.

The split over GST, Stott Despoja and running an open ballot versus swapping preferences with the Greens would not have helped the Democracts and probably played a big role in the leadership merry go round that took place.

Brown so far is about on par with the political achievements of Don Chipp, if he can groom an heir apparent that the rest of the party accepts he will have done him one better. At the moment it probably looks like Milne, but we don't really know, you'd think if Nettle or Organ returned to parliament they might consider themselves deserving, Rhiannon might move to federal politics and have a go, it's hard to know.

 

[Trefoil]

Not really. Bob Brown defines the Greens in the same way Rudd defines Labour.

There are people to replace them. Namely Ludlam and Gillard respectively.

 

[Lentern]

Not really. Bob Brown defines the Greens in the same way Rudd defines Labour.

There are people to replace them. Namely Ludlam and Gillard respectively.

Yes but I think both labor and green party members would rather not dissapear into obscurity. There is not a policy of any Green party in Australia, state of federal that Bob Brown dissagrees with.

As for the ALP you got your Mark Latham, it didn't work, now let the technocrats continue along their scheming, boring, political way in peace, they don't want experimental lemmings being thrust into the grinder. No Gillard, No Bereton, No Swan(although he's technichally not a lemming), No Fitzgibbon, No Faulkner, No Emerson and for gods sake don't let Laurrie Ferguson anywhere near that frontbench. Let Kevin, Lindsay, Jenny, Albo and Smitty do their thing and you'll have a nice moderate government for many years to come, which is preferable to another dry liberal one.

Edit: I listed Crean as one of the brains trust, he is actually a lemming but a lemming that on occasions has demonstrated keen political instincts, on other occasions such as the Beazley/Latham ballot he did not so much.

 

[Rafy]

Reshuffle of the NSW Coalition frontbench

Heir apparent promoted
NSW Liberals preparing for power under Barry O'Farrell

 

[Lentern]

Reshuffle of the NSW Coalition frontbench

Heir apparent promoted
NSW Liberals preparing for power under Barry O'Farrell

And herein lies Mr Rees best chance. O'farrell ends up rivals with this Baird chap, it becomes clear O'farrell is not going to make it to the election himself but will be buggered if Baird gets it, throws his weight behind someone else who isn't really leadership material, and as unpopular as Rees may be when the opposition is stupid then the electorate decides it's better the devil you know. It's happened twice at federal level, once in 1993 and again in 2004, both times against hopelessly unpopular incumbents.

 

[chicky_pie]

^ oh pfft.

I hope you're not one of those statistics in opinion polls that still supports (state) Labor.

I'll increase debt to rebuild the state - Barry O'Farrell


BARRY O'FARRELL says he would be prepared to run a bigger budget deficit, build the dumped north-west and south-west rail links and go ahead with proposals to extend the M4 and M5 motorways if elected.

In an interview with the Herald before yesterday's announcement of his shadow cabinet reshuffle, the NSW Opposition Leader also revealed he would dump the proposal of the Premier, Nathan Rees, to apply differential tolling to Sydney's motorways under which motorists would be charged more in peak hours.


more:
I'll increase debt to rebuild the state - National - smh.com.au

Hmm interesting read, a long read, so I rather just link it.

 

[chicky_pie]

From the whole reshuffle and reading recent articles, it is 100% LIKELY the Liberals will win 2011, no doubt. How many terms would they be in power? Lets just say between 2 - 10 terms

 

[badquinton304]

From the whole reshuffle and reading recent articles, it is 100% LIKELY the Liberals will win 2011, no doubt. How many terms would they be in power? Lets just say between 2 - 10 terms

I did say it was likely but not definite, my figure is around 74% likely to win the next election.

On the idea of going into debt to build tranportation infrastructure, it is quite a good idea in theory, assuming the liberals were elected and went ahead with this plan. However the practicality of the plan needs to be come under political scruitiny, remember the debt incurred by these projects needs to be payed off and it would not be feasable if this must come from cutting costs in important non-transport infrastructure like hospitals. They might choose to increase public transportation costs which is another issue. In my opinion the best bet is to privatise electricity and all the things that bleed government funds, these plans need to be well thought out or else we will have a situation much like the current one, where we propose big plans, but drop them halfway as we do not have the funds.
I guess we will have to wait and see what the liberals propose to pay off debt.

 

[Lex152]

I'm 100% behind building infrastructure, and admire O'Farrell for putting his name there.
However, rather than go into more debt let's see if they have the guts to raise taxes instead.

On the minus it seems he is building the infrastructure for the private sector... why sell NSW power...