Australian Politics (2 Viewers)

[spiny norman]

I have no doubt Turnbull will come good in time.

I doubt it. I can't recall the last time a new leader came to the party with such promise only to become so irrelevant. I really thought Turnbull was a good chance to knock off Rudd. Now I wonder how long until someone knocks off Turnbull.

 

[blue_chameleon]

I doubt it. I can't recall the last time a new leader came to the party with such promise only to become so irrelevant. I really thought Turnbull was a good chance to knock off Rudd. Now I wonder how long until someone knocks off Turnbull.

In what areas?

 

[Trefoil]

I think they need to conduct extensive research into what killed the dems.

I don't, because a big part of the answer is 'The Greens'.

You're also wrong about polls, btw (no surprise). This isn't America. Here, everybody votes, so there's no likely voter speculation. Moreover there's little problem of wording bias because "Who would you vote for if the election was held now?" is a pretty fucking concise and neutral question.

You can, however, ignore any online polls (which one of them is - not Newspoll though).

 

[Lentern]

I don't, because a big part of the answer is 'The Greens'.

You're also wrong about polls, btw (no surprise). This isn't America. Here, everybody votes, so there's no likely voter speculation. Moreover there's little problem of wording bias because "Who would you vote for if the election was held now?" is a pretty fucking concise and neutral question.

You can, however, ignore any online polls (which one of them is - not Newspoll though).

Yes well then the greens should investigate how not to bleed their voting base to a younger, more spritely, party on the left flank once they've pretty much come to dominate the senate crossbench and have a good chance in some lower house seats.

As for polls, are you honestly telling me that had Rudd called a snap election with the good doctor still leading the libs the government would have cruised to 100+ seats, which is what the polls suggested? Spiny does however make a reasonable point, they do damage/create a LOP's security. But thats about all.

Turnbull will do far better in the polls(if he makes it to an election) then todays polling suggests Spiny he's not spiralling into irrelevance but Graney he won't win, he'll probably have a fairly neutral result, maybe a slight gain. I doubt he'll make it though because it'll only become more apparent whatever gains he makes will not be enough and the party will be more prepared to gamble someone else. Besides I think Costello has had the numbers for a while but wants to take the election in a honeymoon period.

 

[whatashotbyseve]

Turnbull has used his final ace. If his stance on the economy backfires (and it will, amongst Labor's traditional, seemingly growing bogan territory), then he has nowhere left to turn.

Conversely, the intellectuals (always Lib ground) and the middle-class (those that may have turned against perceived ambivalence from Howard) have realised they don't need the cash, although they wouldn't turn it down, and will either save or donate it to the bushfires.

If not, Costello is waiting in the wings as the party's saviour. It's really a case of when Turnbull makes a mistake and he pounces. He has always been astute enough to understand the political game.

 

[spiny norman]

Conversely, the intellectuals (always Lib ground)

Ha.

 

[Lentern]

Turnbull has used his final ace. If his stance on the economy backfires (and it will, amongst Labor's traditional, seemingly growing bogan territory), then he has nowhere left to turn.

Conversely, the intellectuals (always Lib ground) and the middle-class (those that may have turned against perceived ambivalence from Howard) have realised they don't need the cash, although they wouldn't turn it down, and will either save or donate it to the bushfires.

If not, Costello is waiting in the wings as the party's saviour. It's really a case of when Turnbull makes a mistake and he pounces. He has always been astute enough to understand the political game.

You make it sound like economic, foreign and social policy are what decides elections. Silly billy.

The political world according to Lentern:
The two fundamental concepts are:
-Absence of negatives trumps presence of positives, obviously both is preferable but just about unheard of.
-Timing is more powerful than policy.

For a governments first three-five years a sound government should be able to secure government quite easilly. After five years however if the Leader of the Oppposition,(not to be mistaken for the whole opposition frontbench) appears safe, reliable, placating and he is able to convince people he is somewhat secure in his place as the leader of his party, there will be a change of government. Once every thirty years or so you have an event like 9/11 or the dismissal and it's difficult to plot how major events like that will swing the electorate, but I tend to think they favour the government.

Examples of suitable opposition leaders:
Kim Beazley
John Howard
Andrew Peacock
Kevin Rudd
Malcolm Turnbull
Bob Carr
Peter Beattie

Examples of unsuitable opposition leaders:
Mark Latham
Alexander Downer
John Hewson
Julia Gillard
Peter Debnam
Frank Sartor
Paul Keating*


*I strongly believe in my heart of hearts Paul Keating could never have won an election from opposition. You can be abit more rowdy once in government because there is no "better the devil you know" concept in place.


To put it another way, new governments don't get voted out and only boring old farts who are all things to all people win from opposition.

 

[whatashotbyseve]

For a governments first three-five years a sound government should be able to secure government quite easilly. After five years however if the Leader of the Oppposition,(not to be mistaken for the whole opposition frontbench) appears safe, reliable, placating and he is able to convince people he is somewhat secure in his place as the leader of his party, there will be a change of government. Once every thirty years or so you have an event like 9/11 or the dismissal and it's difficult to plot how major events like that will swing the electorate, but I tend to think they favour the government.

How do you explain Rudd being elected after one being Opposition leader for one year then? You could hardly say that Labor was stable or offering a credible alternative prior to 07.

Manipulation of media?
The desire for change, just to see a (slightly) different alternative?

 

[Slidey]

How do you explain Rudd being elected after one being Opposition leader for one year then? You could hardly say that Labor was stable or offering a credible alternative prior to 07.

Manipulation of media?
The desire for change, just to see a (slightly) different alternative?

Actually, people had been supporting Labour for a long time before Rudd came into power. Basically Howard's entire tenure consisted of people swinging narrowly in support between Libs and Labour.

On those grounds it only makes sense that when a charismatic new leader comes along who isn't batshit (like Latham), then their support would soar.

 

[Nebuchanezzar]

nah it was workchoices actually

 

[Slidey]

nah it was workchoices actually

Fail. Workchoices came after labour support started increasing.

 

[Nebuchanezzar]

because it was surprise legislation, amrite? it just sprang up overnight.

nah it wasn't the only reason but methinks it was the main reason.

 

[Gerald10]

Fail. Workchoices came after labour support started increasing.

*Labor

 

[Lentern]

How do you explain Rudd being elected after one being Opposition leader for one year then? You could hardly say that Labor was stable or offering a credible alternative prior to 07.

Manipulation of media?
The desire for change, just to see a (slightly) different alternative?

Rudd presented himself as very stable, it's not a case of proving yourself to be, it's a case of not letting yourself get painted as potentially crazy. Short terms in op are common for pm's, howard II, Hawke, Kevin.

 

[chicky_pie]

Bastard Rudd

Protect Rees, Rudd tells Labor MPs

LABOR Party bosses have been ordered to protect Premier Nathan Rees from a leadership challenge and "calm down NSW" to allow Kevin Rudd to call a possible early election in the second half of this year.


Protect Rees, Rudd tells Labor MPs | The Daily Telegraph

 

[Lex152]

I liked the contrast that liberal supporters were charitable intellectuals and labor supporters were money grabbing bogans... I mean how many elections did howard win on strong economic policy with tax cuts?

Also why would rudd call an election this early? Not only is the process costly, but I would imagion you'd get a voter backlash.

I'm losing my party allegiance... I hated the howard government for their tax cuts and lack of infrastructure, and now I'm hating Rudd for cash hand outs and popular politiking...

Why can't we have a decent government?

 

[boris]

i knew it was howard who kept nicking our roads and shit, i knew it

 

[Lentern]

I liked the contrast that liberal supporters were charitable intellectuals and labor supporters were money grabbing bogans... I mean how many elections did howard win on strong economic policy with tax cuts?

Also why would rudd call an election this early? Not only is the process costly, but I would imagion you'd get a voter backlash.

I'm losing my party allegiance... I hated the howard government for their tax cuts and lack of infrastructure, and now I'm hating Rudd for cash hand outs and popular politiking...

Why can't we have a decent government?

Rudd's biggest incentive to call an early election are those damn state governments. NSW and QLD were Rudd's key states, NSW picked up the most seats whilst QLD had the biggest swing. Both QLD and NSW are ye old governments of the Clinton era and could not be more boring, stale and most crucially increasingly unpopular. If he calls an election around the time of the NSW election which is probable, it will hurt him. Not enough to loes government but he's far better calling it earlier, or as late as possible.

Plus it's fair to say that Costello and Turnbull won't make it to 2012 in opposition so if Rudd calls it early he can probably finish his biggest rivals whilst he popularity is as high as lucy in the sky. On the topic of opposition leaders who could not win from opposition and those who could when the time is right

Could:
Turnbull
Nelson
Costello
Hockey

Could not:
Bishop
Abbott

I can't imagine anyone else having a bob before 2012, maybe put Pyne down in the could nots for good measure.

 

[Gerald10]

Could:
Turnbull
Nelson
Costello
Hockey

Could not:
Bishop
Abbott

I can't imagine anyone else having a bob before 2012, maybe put Pyne down in the could nots for good measure.

I would say that of those only Turnbull and Hockey could possibly do it. Two words will defeat Costello - 'Work Choices'. While Nelson just isn't PM material.

 

[blue_chameleon]

Rudd presented himself as very stable, it's not a case of proving yourself to be, it's a case of not letting yourself get painted as potentially crazy. Short terms in op are common for pm's, howard II, Hawke, Kevin.

I remember the 'me tooism' of the Labor government throughout the election campaign.

Twas pretty obvious.