You mean 2009 course cut-off. It may go up, it may go down. /shrug
Not sure why people post all these 'Chances' threads. Would you make alternate arrangements if you knew you wouldn't get in? Because if you would, you should do so.
Otherwise, there's nothing else you can do except wait.
Oh wow I finally worked out how I got into my course haha..I'm a bit slow.
Yes I'd say you have a good chance cos I was .1 off my course cut off with the bonus points.