Probability is not well defined for meta-events.
just as well-ordered is for complex numbers.
Yet in philosophy (this is secular philosophy), secularists, hold to truth as being true:
- consistent with other known truths
- coherence
- pragmatic
- personal (relativism).
The problem is not whether probability is not that is well-defined, it is in some measure. Truth is not agreed on when it comes to what would be considered truth. For instance, someone like you, would probably only consider something true, if you can definitely prove it, limited to the empirical methods of science and mathematical logic.
Truth concerning meta-events can also not well-defined, because the word "miracle" is very subjective, even amongst the non-religious.
Even then because naturalism is also a world view that says that the probability of meta-events are 0.
Then again it also depends on classifying things as meta-events, some (as per a discussion several threads ago), would define the healing of cancer even though it is a physical event, with a correlating meta-event.
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To change the angle...
Confidence can be well-defined, but not in a quantitative. So the question is not whether you have confidence (everyone has confidence in something), what is the thing we have confidence is (there can be more than one answer), and what reasons does one have for that?
IN the end the only one who can claim they don't have confidence in anything, is the nihilist in the room, but even they I think secretly are confident in the seeming lack of confidence elsewhere.
Personally, and I think most people are like this, they hold to the view that is most coherent. (It is why accusations such as delusional are just unjustified/unfound), the problem we have sometimes is that, and sometimes I err on this side too, is we need to address the issue.
Probability is well-defined in the realms of mathematics. That is sufficient to say it is well-defined. Can we plot meta-events in the realm of mathematics. Only if we have an accurate record of such events. Now some people say, well if it is a meta-event it has to be false, if it doesn't have a scientific explanation. The issue with that, is there is another dimension.
I kind of think when it comes to meta-events, you are looking at a problem.
Let us consider a simple miracle for instance as an example, turning into water into wine.
It is obvious that such thing is not a normality, so hence the probability of occurring is not high, specifically speaking. The issue is not that the probability is close to zero henceforth, but the question is it zero, because we dismiss as unlikely to happen. The real question is how reliable are the accounts of meta-events happening. This is where we have to look at it more, like a legal case, where witnesses put forth evidence as such.