Federal election - Predictions (1 Viewer)

[Muz4PM]

I was only a little tacker back in the days of 1998, but I believe that that a similar outcome will occur now. I believe that a number of marginals defied the large national swing to the ALP (Ross Cameron only suffered a 1.1% swing in Parramatta in 1998). So, I believe that the swings will occur in safe Coalition and safe Labor seats with marginals not moving too far. The large swings in the ALP seats are I guess self explanitary, but many of the "Doctors Wives" in safe Liberal seats maybe probe to vote for the ALP, for reasons such as Kyoto.

Granted, the Liberals look set to lose both Tasmanian seats, a swag in SA and NSW, but I think that they will not be sufficeint to see a change in government. Would not suprise me if Katter and Windsor got power in a hung parliament.

 

[Enteebee]

I was only a little tacker back in the days of 1998, but I believe that that a similar outcome will occur now.

I think it's important to remember that 1998 was a bit of a weird election due to the huge primary vote One Nation recieved and most of their preferences went towards the libs ahead of Labor... Thus the liberals needed a much smaller primary vote compared with now when the dominant 3rd party (the greens) is planning to direct all their preferences outside of Tasmania to Labor.

 

[Iron]

Yeah the issues are vastly different to 98.
I think Beezer's Knowledge Nation was 01? But even that was pretty different to the Education Revolution.

 

[Triangulum]

I think it's important to remember that 1998 was a bit of a weird election due to the huge primary vote One Nation recieved and most of their preferences went towards the libs ahead of Labor... Thus the liberals needed a much smaller primary vote compared with now when the dominant 3rd party (the greens) is planning to direct all their preferences outside of Tasmania to Labor.

Yeah, I think the Libs will struggle with a primary down around 40-42 compared to Labor's at 47-48, since minor party preferences favour Labor. (For all the hue and cry about Family First, particularly last election, they barely have a quarter of the support the Greens have. Their preferences aren't really key except in very tight seats, but I can't think of many of those that have a high evangelical population.)

 

[Rafy]

TPP: ALP 53.5 / 46.5 Coalition
Primaries: ALP 47, Coalition 42, Greens 6, Others 5
Seats: Labor 85, Coalition 63, Independent 2

 

[volition]

lol I checked sportsbet odds:
Labor $1.20
Coalition $4.60

80%-20%

0wnage hahah

 

[_dhj_]

lol I checked sportsbet odds:
Labor $1.20
Coalition $4.60

80%-20%

0wnage hahah

Although 38% of BOS seems to think that the Liberals will win.

This election will be won by Labor largely because of the 'it's time' sentiment, the effect of which, our generation tends to underestimate.

 

[Iron]

This is going to be a fantastic summer. The new broom/honeymoon period is meant to be glorious. I think the country will get swept away with a new optimism and faith in government. You wait, the Ruddslide is going to give this country such a boost in spirits.
Saturday night, i'm going to go nuts.

 

[withoutaface]

Labor with electorate numbers in the high 80s/low 90s.

 

[Iron]

The nation went mad with Australiana after Hawke 83. Im hoping the mood will reach similar levels

 

[Nebuchanezzar]

I <3 you Iron.

I predict what the poll says I predict. I am reasonably confident about that.

EDIT: http://www.ozpolitics.info/blog/

The last few entries have predictions and whatever that are informed by statistics and whatnot. It's looking good!

 

[Silver Persian]

Ahhh stop getting all confident BOS lefties. You'll put a jinx on Labor

 

[Generator]

Ahhh stop getting all confident BOS lefties. You'll put a jinx on Labor

To be quite honest, any true lefty wouldn't be particularly excited by the prospect of a Rudd Labor government.

I predict (and hope for) a narrow Labor victory with both Mr Howard and Mr Turnbull retaining their seats.

Though I'd be happy to see the ALP take the lower house, I'm not a fan of the Howard-haters, so I have to admit that there's a part of me that would just love to see the Coalition take the lower house with a bare majority. The anguish and despair that would be expressed by many with such an outcome would make for fantastic (and hilarious) reading.

 

[Iron]

The anguish and despair that would be expressed by many with such an outcome would make for fantastic (and hilarious) reading.

I used to think that you were everything Generator.
Now I see that you're pure evil

 

[Nebuchanezzar]

To be quite honest, any true lefty wouldn't be particularly excited by the prospect of a Rudd Labor government.

This one is excited by the prospect that a less conservative/right government than Howards one is about to be elected. Also this one holds a less than confident self-assurance that policies will change for the better once elected. Also, I dislike Howard as a person. So there.

 

[Josie]

This one is excited by the prospect that a less conservative/right government than Howards one is about to be elected. Also this one holds a less than confident self-assurance that policies will change for the better once elected. Also, I dislike Howard as a person. So there.

Quoted for truth.

Any move to the left is a good one. As long as we're not electing Socialist Alliance.

 

[Smithereens]

As long as we're not electing Socialist Alliance.

Agreed.

 

[Nebuchanezzar]

BoS lefties unite!

Come on, people now. Smile on your brother everybody get together...

 

[Josie]

Look, I've got the champagne and the cigar all lined up, I can't wait!

 

[atreus]

has anyone seen today's Passion Pulse? the quote was from howard saying hes never lied to the australian people. at one stage the whole country was bright red. but now, it seems some people in WA and south west qld actually believe him.