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monetary policy + rate rise questions (1 Viewer)

rukawasan

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ppls... i noe this is in newb's thread... but seems its getting off topic... so heres my questions...

rba tightened mp 4.75- 5.00% 25 basis points up...
why did they tighten it... n what will it mean... in terms of the usual growth, unemployment, inflation, external stability, distribution of y + welath, exchange rate, cad, nfd n all dat....

timmii, minai... help please...
 

rukawasan

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sorri... tightned... too much ecos these days muckin my brain up
 

Blondie

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ok, so im not brilliant economist, but as far as ive figured out, theyve tightened it to control the level of spending int he economy, to slow growth (thats why its tightening). this will mean that the level at which the $A is appreciating, esp against the $US, wil slow. thisll make exporters less annoyed, cos at the moment, exports are really expensive, and aust's intl competitiveness is being sold short because of this......i dunno, is that right anyone?
 
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hmm...it went down to control inflation(mainly the housing industry)...

but wouldnt an increase in interest rate actually INCREASE the value of the dollar? coz people overseas will invest in Australia to capitalise on the high interest rates (in comparison to the ~1% in US and ~0% in japan)?!?!

i dunno >.<
 

Blondie

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yes, but the inflation is a result of rising wages due to increased pdtn (growth).
and yeah ur right, the increased R will make the $A appreciate. my bad :S
 

monkey187

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i think they did it to reduce the CAD which hit the critical level of 6% and also stop the property boom
 

-=«MÄLÅÇhïtÊ»=-

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Mainly to slow down the hot property market.

unemployment will increase, inflation will decrease, exchange rate will make aussie dollar slightly higher
 

Nupil

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Well I imagine we're all reading the paper eagerly ... but I thought I'd include Ross Gittins' article from today:

http://www.smh.com.au/articles/2003/11/05/1068013263372.html

He basically just emphasises that you can't claim it's to do with the property market alone ... It is much more influenced by global conditions, that's largely the reason they'd been putting it off for so long.

Also, I have a question. Prior to this RBA increase, for a good while it's been rumoured that the cash rate would be decreased before it would be increased - is it just me that finds what the RBA has done is not what was expected? And does that mean anything?

Meh, thinking out-loud. I just thought I'd include the link so we could mull over it. Sorry if you've read it!

Edit: Well Kohler is the opposite of Gittins' ... he is implying that it's the RBAs pre-mature response to asset bubble. I think it's a combination and I guess if there is a question on IRates and MP they'd be looking for that to be pointed out. Though accounting for it's effects is independent of why it was done. Grrr this sucks. Also how long is an MP lag? I wonder how long any effects will take considering ... well. Beh.
 
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Newbie

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Originally posted by Nupil

Also, I have a question. Prior to this RBA increase, for a good while it's been rumoured that the cash rate would be decreased before it would be increased - is it just me that finds what the RBA has done is not what was expected? And does that mean anything?
yeah i've read some handouts that were dated to about mid 2003 saying how it was expect to be a choice between leaving rates unchanged or loosening it even more

and then they go and take it up yesterday and i was like wtf :(
 

timmii

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Several factors really.

1 - recovering global economy
2 - housing market asset price bubble
3 - high/unsustainable levels of household debt
4 - inflation targetting
5 - demand management.

With regard to the inflation targeting and demand management, if you saw today's paper you'll see that unemployment is now at 5.6%, the lowest since 1989, despite an increase in the participation rate. This is a signal that we are in "an expansionary gap" and unemployment may be below the Natural rate ---> tightened interest rates may then be seen as a strategy to just slow the economy down for a bit so as to prevent inflationary pressures that usual result when growth is outpacing the long-term economic trend (in terms of long-run phillips curve, there is only so much by which you can reduce unemployment - after that its merely a case of keeping a cap on inflation).

In terms of our exhorbitant trade balance. Theoretically raising interest rates will reduce import expenditure and thus help our CAD. However our demand for imports is rather inelastic, and a 25basis point rise isn't that extensive (tho it may be symbolic to some, and for those with large mortgages it may be enough to rein in spending). So the more immediate effect, as can be seen by yesterday's and today's exchage rates, is that speculation and capital inflow will cause an appreciation in the dollar, which will cause imports to be cheaper and exports to be more expensive > thereby worsening the CAD, but still serving to reduce AD (tightening mp).

If tighter monetary policy, does in the medium term however assist in keeping inflation down, this could help exports by making them more competitive, but in this low inflation/deflationary climate even our nice 2-3% is higher than that of other countries and without a currency depreciation, may not be too significant a factor.
 

Blondie

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ohhhh....well THAT certainly cleared things up for me. geez, now it all makes that little bit more sense :) thanks!!
 

Minai

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I think the problem with the Australian economy is that there are critical levels of household savings, and the RBA should look at further rate rises to encourge greater public saving, as this helps fund future investment, and basically contributes to sustainable development - in the long run
 

scut

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Originally posted by Minai
I think the problem with the Australian economy is that there are critical levels of household savings, and the RBA should look at further rate rises to encourge greater public saving, as this helps fund future investment, and basically contributes to sustainable development - in the long run
Yes thats quite true, we do have a problem with savings. However the problem with raising rates, is that it is unlikely a 1 or 2 % rise will encourage people to save. You really would need a an interest rate around 8% to even get people interested in depositing their money with the banks..
Although... Raising rates would discourage the housing boom and would decrease the amount of people using the property market as a form of investment, and potentially forcing them to lodge their spare cash into banks, resulting in higher levels of savings.
Its a good point you make Minai, I doubt the conservative RBA Board would ever adopt such a stance as they could expect some major protests outside their HQ by angry Mums and Dads...
 
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timmii

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it's not only that, structural changes need to be made in the tax system. When people are taxed putting their money into super, and taking it out of super, as well as the high set up costs for trusts etc to bypass those taxes it really is an unnecessary barrier. I know they're reforming super at the moment, but there's still more that can be done - e.g bank charges. At least we're not as bad as america where mortgages repayments are tax deductible! But while savings should be increased because we have a chronic obsession with unproductive debt - i don't think it should be at the expense of growth either...


n.b also there's a bad culture/attitude towards debt and credit cards etc. Those "equity mate" ads are awful - encouraging ppl to borrow more on their homes to go on holidays??? *ugh*! More stringent tests for credit cards as well may slow consumer spending somewhat, but may make it more sustainable in the long run.
 

scut

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yes credit cards are another problem, whilst we continue to have an obsession with the plastic, Australia will never raise its savings level. Perhaps reduce the Interest free period down to 20 days, that'll surely put people off them, But the good old banks are unlikely to do this as it would shrink their credit card profits.
But yeah how greedy are those banks!!! $2billion annual profits for the "Big Four" still isn't enough....
- Greedy Shareholders...grrr.... :D
 

mr_speedy

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what about how unemplloyment is now 5.6% and that is the lowest in 20 years, and if you look at the short run phillips curve, as unemployment decreass, inflation rises, so another reason is too control inflation.
 

2003HSC

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i dont understand your point, are you saying a reason to control inflation (bring it down) is to increase unemployment?
Because that is the principle of the phillips curve (inflation decreases, unemployment increases) and raising unemployment is generally considered to be a bad thing.
 

saves.the.day

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The reasons I would put are:

To dampen the increasing demand in the housing sector
Global recession while Australia enjoys strong growth = bad
Inflation targetting
 

numg

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I think the problem with the Australian economy is that there are critical levels of household savings, and the RBA should look at further rate rises to encourge greater public saving, as this helps fund future investment, and basically contributes to sustainable development - in the long run
Economics is so convoluted!! wouldn't a raise in interest rates forces businesses to borrow overseas? worsening Australia's net foreign debt. Yet following this train of thought to encourage firms to borrow internally to invest would require low domestic rates thus overheating the economy...

ack i give up...


As for the cash rate change the answers everyone have given all work theoretically and so you can't really say an idea is right or wrong. Personally i think its just being used to control inflation due to the global economy pickup, as well as signs domestically such as the unemployment. I heard somewhere that the RBA statement was to move monetary from an expansionary to more neutral stance. Then the other effects such as on the CAD are more the impacts of such a change...
 

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i agree :p
economics goes around in circles
at the end of each essay i just mumble some stuff about the importance of having a balance lol
 

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