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Predict the Next Opposition Leader (1 Viewer)

Lorie

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Has the media and the silly people that believe everything they read gone mad.....

Latham is not well, and his choice about his future is his. He was elected as Labor leader at a time when labor had nothing, the polls were low and no 1 responded to Simon Crean. He put a breath of fresh air into the party. He put pressure on the government to change the crazy amount given to politicans super-annuation, even when Costello and other libs strongly disagreed. He mad the coalition scared, and forced them into scare tatics in order to win the election, and due to the greedy and fearful nature of the country these days it worked.

If he is too unwell to carry out his duties, the party must maintian this pressure on the government that they had before the last election. Kim Beazley's experiance must be put to use, Lathams decision to out him in the defnece role was a positive move and he should be given a minister role, but i don't think it is his turn as leader. It may be same old, same old, with him as leader. Rudd seems to have a strong connection with Asia and foriegn affairs, in our local region. I believe he would make a good leader. He brings an approach that the voters can relate to and seems to have some good ideas reguarding Australias ties and future ties with the Asian nations, which can lead to future free trade deals, and more involvement with APEC.

sounds like the media is just going to keep putting the pressure on a sick man, and the polls will contintue to head south for the labor party. I believe Rudd, but also Kym will have a more important role.
 

zenger69

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Waaa nearly 15 years of Liberal rule.

Maybe by 2010 one of us will be up there in Labor and making a difference.

History might repeat itself like with Gough Whitlam and radical changes.
 

mr EaZy

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Generator said:
Of all the state premiers it would have to be Beattie... As was pointed out in the illness thread, Queensland is a must win state at the federal level and Beattie appears to have survived last year without a great deal of damage (with reference to the opinion polls).

Edit: That isn't to say that the party should turn to the States for a leader.

on the 7:30 report today beattie was to predict his choice for the top job
did anyone see it?
coz i flicked the channel too quickly (watchin somethin else) oh well

beatties a grewat leader ! :)
 

mr EaZy

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zenger69 said:
Waaa nearly 15 years of Liberal rule.

Maybe by 2010 one of us will be up there in Labor and making a difference.

History might repeat itself like with Gough Whitlam and radical changes.
need to wait longer than 15 years :rolleyes:

but by 2010 i hope labor is back at the top :cool:
 

zenger69

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It's funny how all the state labor leaders seem to be kicking ass over the liberals but national ALP leader can't. And all the state labor leaders are great as well.

Maybe it was designed to be this way, where Labor is better at state politics and Liberals control federal politics.
 

Rafy

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Well the pay us australians are, we are more conservative at a national level and this lessens as the scale decreses....eg.

Federal : Liberal
State : Labor
Local : independants
 

zenger69

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Anoher irony I want to mention is the dictionary definition of Liberal.

1)Not limited to or by established, traditional, orthodox, or authoritarian attitudes, views, or dogmas; free from bigotry.
2)Favoring proposals for reform, open to new ideas for progress, and tolerant of the ideas and behavior of others; broad-minded.
3)Of, relating to, or characteristic of liberalism.
4)Liberal Of, designating, or characteristic of a political party founded on or associated with principles of social and political liberalism, especially in Great Britain, Canada, and the United States.

While our Liberal Party is extremely conservative, why not change their name........
 

Generator

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It's the Liberal, not liberal, party for one, and nobody can deny that they are (in theory) working towards a more economically liberal society.

Search the forums for a proper response (it has been dealt with before).
 

Suvat

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Prolly gonna be big Kim if Latham resigns. Kim might be able to do a John Howard but I doubt he'll be able to win the next federal election. Might come close though, just like his last 2 attempts....

Rudd has a sharp enough brain and mouth, as well as the balls to give credit to the government when they do something right, but there's some aura surrounding him which kinda makes him unelectable (not the simon crean type) unless the government blunders.
 

rantman

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The next opposition leader will be Peter Costello. Why? Because he will challenge Howard for the leadership of the Liberal Party and he will win. But... they will lose the next election to whoever leads Labor (cause the economic tide will turn - "every boom has a bust"). So Costello will be in opposition, as leader.
 

Rafy

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Peter costello would never challenge, at least in this term. He dosent have the numbers, and the would be crazy while Howard's popularity is at its higest ever.....

ANyway, back to Latham...bob carr said he would resign today?
 

Rafy

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*is doubting that even they would know what is going on*
 

chubbaraff

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We realy need to go with Rudd, Beazley is definately to conservative, If i was conservative i would vote for Howard, to the conservative: "if it aint broke dont fix it" unless you put something ultimately different up. As much as I politically dislike Latham, I hate the gutless labor caucuss 100 times more. They are a bunch of ageing careerist wanna bees who at the slightest hint of weekness have burned Latham. I actually feel sorry for him... which is weird, ive said this in all my other posts, if only Nettle could lead an opposition!
 

Iron

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Rudd is very boring. Labor's gone with too many long shots; Beazely is dynamic, political royalty, infalliable, exprienced and Howard's nightmare...I believe in him anyway.
 

zenger69

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Well the caucus hasn't exactly dumped Mr Latham, he decided to resign.

Also means another by-election............... and could be even harder if labor loses that seat to a Liberal to win the next election.
 

LadyBec

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He might not have resigned if senior member of the labor party weren't backstabbing him left right an center though.
But anyways, I said it in some other thread but Gillard all the way, she's an excellent debater and public speaker, and has good ideas for the future. Plus she's just cool.
However at this point in time I doubt the caucuss would go for it, even if she decided to have a go.
I'm over Beazley, he's had a go, he fucked it up, now it's time for someone else. Maybe Rudd, he's alright
 
B

Bambul

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I really can't see anybody but Kim Beazly getting the top job. Someone else might run against him (Julia Gillard, Kevin Rudd, maybe Lindsay Tanner), but they would have trouble getting enough support (though it is possible - no one expected Mark Latham to get the leadership). Peter Brent at mumble.com.au has argued that Julia Gillard may run as a representing the Crean camp that supported Latham against Beazley (the group that doesn't like ALP members who undermine the leader). But Mark Latham had one thing that Julia Gillard doesn't have - he is from the right wing faction of the ALP, she is from the left wing faction and no left winger has ever led the ALP (because the right outnumber the left 2:1).

I think the most likely outcome is Kim Beazley elected unopposed, but Jenny Macklin beaten for the position of deputy by Julia Gillard.

Beazley is also the only one who has 20+ years in parliment. Here is a list of past prime ministers (since WWII) and how long they had been in parliment when they became PM:

22 John Howard (1974-96)
22 Paul Keating (1969-91)
3 *Bob Hawke (1980-83)
20 Malcom Fraser (1955-75)
20 Gough Whitlam (1952-72)
22 Billy McMahon (1949-71)
19 John Gorton (1949-68)
33 John McEwen (1934-67)
31 Harold Holt (1935-66)
15 #Rober Menzies (1934-49)
17 Ben Chifely (1928-45)

* Bob Hawke is the only exception.
# I've counted his second term as PM, his first was short lived and he resigned soon after becoming PM.

This is how many years each of the prospective leaders (plus some others I've thrown in for comparison) will have had in parliment by 2007 (probably date for next election):

27 Kim Beazley (1980-2007)
14 Lindsay Tanner (1993-2007)
14 Stephen Smith (1993-2007)
9 Kevin Rudd (1998-2007)
9 Julia Gillard (1998-2007)
9 Wayne Swan (1998-2007)

27 @Robert Ray (1980-2007)
19 Bob McMullan (1988-2007)
18 @John Faulkner (1989-2007)
17 Laurie Ferguson (1990-2007)

@Senator

And after all that I've realised how unimportant everything I've just said really is.
 

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