the polls would have to be catastrophically wrongi swear yes is gonna win. i know the silent majority is very much a thing (no one has the balls to wear vote no shirts and put vote no posters on their house) but the randomness on the day will be high
yes true but I don't really trust polls in the first place. im not even voting yes and im doubtful of themthe polls would have to be catastrophically wrong
and i mean if the polls were showing a clear yes majority, no yes supporter would be doubting the polls, making appeals to 'randomness' a cope.
okay but it would be very weird if a huge swing in the polls towards no was completely divorced from any real world voting intention change. Either all pollsters have different and yet somehow equally flawed methodologies, even the ones that have shown much higher yes % than the other polls, or the change does represent a true swing but the true % yes started off even higher than thought (i.e. higher than 64%) and so they're still above 50%.yes true but I don't really trust polls in the first place. im not even voting yes and im doubtful of them
Agreed. I think Brexit, the 2019 Federal election and especially the Trump win have given people a distorted idea of poll accuracy. In all those cases, the polls weren't way off, they were within the margin of error and people werent looking at the right polling. With Trump for example, people focused on national polls which showed a Clinton win (which was correct, Clinton won the national popular vote). However, in terms of the electoral college (which determines US Presidential elections), Trump managed a narrow win which was largely within the margins of state-wide polls.okay but it would be very weird if a huge swing in the polls towards no was completely divorced from any real world voting intention change. Either all pollsters have different and yet somehow equally flawed methodologies, even the ones that have shown much higher yes % than the other polls, or the change does represent a true swing but the true % yes started off even higher than thought (i.e. higher than 64%) and so they're still above 50%.
Not only would national polls need to be very wrong, at least 4 out of 6 of the state polls would need to be wrong too.
I've been seeing it more equal now, both for vote no and vote yesokie dokie i trust you guys. it would be surreal to see the reaction of a yes loss after seeing every institution endorse the yes campaign. all councils around me have flags and banners saying that the council votes yes
take a photo of all them, to use against them at a later date in the 1% chance that it actually passes, and then it would all go to ruinsokie dokie i trust you guys. it would be surreal to see the reaction of a yes loss after seeing every institution endorse the yes campaign. all councils around me have flags and banners saying that the council votes yes
wait so youve seen publci endorsements of no?I've been seeing it more equal now, both for vote no and vote yes
yeah pretty much, there’s no chance of it passinghttps://www.theguardian.com/austral...iament-referendum-polls-voters-western-sydney
this is why the voice is losing
no other reason IMO
ppl are too low iq
dont get me wrong i dont think the voice is a good idea
but ppl genuinely dont understand it anyway and thats why its not popular and no one cares
i reckon iq 95 is the cut off to intuitively grasp it let alone produce a theoretical framework in your mind how it may or may not work
gay marriage was super simple, dick in ass vs dick in vagina
very simple non-abstract physical concept that you can convince people are equivalent
thats why it won
but this is way more abstract legal shit requires higher level thought processes to put together a model of what it is
then as a second layer, you have to understand why it might actually work
so even amongst ppl who are high iq enough to understand the voice as a model, a lot of them simply wont vote for it bc theyre skeptical itll help at all or have some other issue maybe brought up by no campaign
so it has to go through two clearances to get people to really support it, first needs ppl to actually be smart enough to grasp it as an abstract concept, then then within that group then you need the people who understand it, and think itll work
so no way could it ever have gotten a majority i should have realised this before