2013 Federal election (3 Viewers)

[Sathius005]

Bookies predict that Coalition will win the election with 84 seats compared to ALP's 65 seats. The ALP is predicted to lose 6 seats. The Labor party now has 71 seats in the federal parliament prior to the federal election.

 

[soloooooo]

Bookies predict that Coalition will win the election with 84 seats compared to ALP's 65 seats. The ALP is predicted to lose 6 seats. The Labor party now has 71 seats in the federal parliament prior to the federal election.

The bookies are only usually wrong on a few sports....

 

[townie]

Prediction #3PL will be dropped when the coalition "discovers a budget black hole" (don't tell me that all this BS about treasury being political isn't just a pre-cursor for that.

 

[lochnessmonsta]

Prediction #3PL will be dropped when the coalition "discovers a budget black hole" (don't tell me that all this BS about treasury being political isn't just a pre-cursor for that.

Townie mate you're speaking like the coalition has already won! There is still hope comrade...

Anyway, prediction #4 - GST increase? Hahaha

 

[townie]

Townie mate you're speaking like the coalition has already won! There is still hope comrade...

Anyway, prediction #4 - GST increase? Hahaha

Abbot would have to stuff up pretty badly to not win at this point

 

[lochnessmonsta]

Abbot would have to stuff up pretty badly to not win at this point

Agreed

 

[Rafy]

http://www.couriermail.com.au/news/...the-halfway-mark/story-fnihsr9v-1226700946895

People in ALP campaign HQ already backgrounding to journalists about Rudd and his faltering campaign. The blame game has started.

 

[Graney]

How bad would you feel if you're in the ALP, you're in opposition and Rudd is your opposition leader.

 

[Garygaz]

probably not as bad as malcolm turnbull having to convincingly act that he believes the libs fttn is a good idea for the future of our digital economy

 

[townie]

How bad would you feel if you're in the ALP, you're in opposition and Rudd is your opposition leader.

Rudd won't last one caucus meeting if they lose the election.

 

[soloooooo]

Is superannuation not increasing if the Liberals are elected? That is what one Labor tv ad said.

 

[soloooooo]

Won't need to, public service, employed for life yo

Until the next efficiency dividend and cut to the public service...

 

[lochnessmonsta]

 

[Lentern]

Rudd won't last one caucus meeting if they lose the election.

So says the man who once, twice, a thousand times told us that Gillard would contest the election.

 

[townie]

So says the man who once, twice, a thousand times told us that Gillard would contest the election.

Coming from the man who was sure Rudd would give us a humane approach on asylum seekers, nobody is right about everything.

 

[townie]

Until the next efficiency dividend and cut to the public service...

Windmills do not work that way

 

[nerdasdasd]

Wow about told rudd to shut up.

 

[Lentern]

Coming from the man who was sure Rudd would give us a humane approach on asylum seekers, nobody is right about everything.

Overseas resettlement is preferable to overseas indefinite detention. At any rate that goes to policy, it was about the internal dynamics of the Labor party which I was suggesting you should by now be less trustful of your intuition.

 

[townie]

Overseas resettlement is preferable to overseas indefinite detention. At any rate that goes to policy, it was about the internal dynamics of the Labor party which I was suggesting you should by now be less trustful of your intuition.

Ha! Your tune has changed. I wish some of your older poss were still available for me to quote here, but alas...
Back to my point: I thought that the labor party's hate of Kevin would outweighs their desire to be elected, I admit I was wrong about that, their desire to hold onto their seats is strong. But once they do, their motivation to keep Kevin will fade. Even the circumstances of his return were framed as saving the furniture, not him being the best person to lead the party, just the best person to take to an election. If Rudd is true to his plans to reform the larty we know that as a losing leader there will automatically be a spill the first meeting of the caucus (which removes the nasty business of having to challenge), at which, i wouldn't be suprised if he was defeated.

Edit: on the other hand, OL's elected straight after election defeats tend not to last so it would be a brave soul to put their hand up

 

[Lentern]

Ha! Your tune has changed. I wish some of your older poss were still available for me to quote here, but alas...

Not entirely sure it has , changed from when I was sixteen perhaps.

Back to my point: I thought that the labor party's hate of Kevin would outweighs their desire to be elected, I admit I was wrong about that, their desire to hold onto their seats is strong. But once they do, their motivation to keep Kevin will fade. Even the circumstances of his return were framed as saving the furniture, not him being the best person to lead the party, just the best person to take to an election. If Rudd is true to his plans to reform the larty we know that as a losing leader there will automatically be a spill the first meeting of the caucus (which removes the nasty business of having to challenge), at which, i wouldn't be suprised if he was defeated.

Edit: on the other hand, OL's elected straight after election defeats tend not to last so it would be a brave soul to put their hand up

Your last sentence is kind of why I think he could possibly stay on. I imagine he'll willingly step down and if he gets walloped he definitely will but if he gets in excess of say 68 seats there will be an argument to be made in his favour. More to the point the mass exodus of ministers particularly from the old factional guard means the alternatives are not abundant. In a different set of circumstances Smith, Roxon and Combet might otherwise have been plausible alternatives but they're all gone now. Assuming Bowen and Albanese genuinely support Rudd rather than joined him in a marriage of convenience it's really heavily reliant I think on the mindsets of Burke and Shorten. And if they both decide they don't want it at that point in time, who else is there? Pibersek? Beattie? Swan?