Nadal lost 60 61 against Youzny in Chennai a week ago.
Enough said, really... he's not in fantastic form, and not to mention the pressure on his athletic body increases in Australia. He's really prone to be being blasted off court on surfaces not on clay. Look at what Gonzalez did to him a year ago. Completely blown off court.
Safin is really iffy. If he can play his best, there's no doubt he'll be a force to be reckoned with. But my feeling is that he'll get knocked out by either Marcos 2R, Hewitt 3R, Djokovic 4R. Too tough on his ageing shoulders.
Henin seems to be our woman to win the AO, and probably rightly so since she's coming off US Open, WTA Championships and Sydney wins. She posted up the best winning percentage since Steffi Graf in 1989. But one thing of note is that her serve has seemed shaky, which will be exacerbated in Melbourne where:
a) It's stifling hot
b) there's glare everywhere
She made nine double faults against Ivanovic, and from the last two matches in Sydney going to three sets, she wasn't really dominant and just played so awesome clutch points. To win, she's got to get through: Golovin 4R (though Golovin is the eternal choker in slams), Sharapova/Davenport QF, Williams SF, Williams/Kuznetsova/Ivanovic F. Very, very very tough draw for the number one seed, especially where she can get mentally and physically tired after two week's play (and also, from the QFs onwards, she will need to beat players with a combinsed 15/16 slams
most probably). Prime example was her melt-down against Bartoli at Wimbledon. Won the first set 6-1 but really just crumbled towards the end of the 2nd set. That said though, Bartoli was playing some delicious tennis.