Coronavirus/Covid-19 Discussion Thread (1 Viewer)

Time&moretime

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Premier accuses teachers' union of wanting kids home indefinitely.
Premier Gladys Berejiklian has accused the NSW Teachers Federation of wanting to keep children home from school indefinitely... Sourced from the Syd Morning Herald Jordan Baker 23 April 2020.

This is so depressing. Students want to return to schools and teachers want to stay home. This partially explains the failing education system.:mad:
 

Potato Sticks

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Schools should not be reopened until either clear evidence on the long term impact and transmissibility of Covid on children is found or until cafes, restaurants, bars and the like are at least partially reopened (or at least children’s venues such as indoor playgrounds, etc.).

They obviously can choose to force teachers to return to school, but I am aware that this will result in many teachers choosing to deliver education of a quality no different than that experienced than those learning at home, to incentivise students to stay home. This is not good for anyone.
 

Trebla

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The staged approach in NSW makes sense to me, though it probably should be transitioned faster for Year 12 students. It gives teachers and students time to get comfortable going back to face-to-face teaching. However, private schools can do their own thing.

VIC on the other hand is doing all of Term 2 at home.

This is a classic case of differences in personal risk appetite. The evidence points to a very low risk of transmission in schools, but it seems that risk isn’t low enough for some people.
 

Potato Sticks

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The staged approach in NSW makes sense to me, though it probably should be transitioned faster for Year 12 students. It gives teachers and students time to get comfortable going back to face-to-face teaching. However, private schools can do their own thing.

VIC on the other hand is doing all of Term 2 at home.

This is a classic case of differences in personal risk appetite. The evidence points to a very low risk of transmission in schools, but it seems that risk isn’t low enough for some people.
The risk is actually likely comparatively the highest in year 12 students as they are pretty much young adults, compared to lower grades. If sending year 12s back faster can be justified, then we might as well send everyone back faster since the whole school will be back eventually (or alternatively, keep only year 12s in school for the time being)

The main problem is we don’t have much data on transmission within schools, asymptomatic or symptomatic. If there turns out to be widespread asymptomatic transmission and long term organ damage (e.g impaired lung function), that has to be a risk then that one has to accept, even if small, when reopening schools. Personally given the multi-organ damage caused by Coronavirus in adults, I don’t think the possibility is even that remote, especially with atypical symptoms found increasingly within children such as toxic shock syndrome.

Reference:

On the other hand, the short term risk is probably very low right now, but considering logistical issues we should look at whether schools will eventually shut again because of a broader second wave in the community. The idea behind delaying school reopenings is so we remove the risk and disturbance of shutting schools down again down the road. The situation of subsequent waves will be quite clear by the start of term 3.
 

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The main rationale for wanting it faster for Year 12s is because the education risk from home learning vs face-to-face learning is far greater than any other year. Given the current state of low community transmission in general, the difference in health risk across the age groups in schools is perhaps less significant. Hence, the education risk should be a larger consideration.

I’m not sure I quite follow the rationale that not having to shut schools again come a second wave is a reason to keep them closed for longer. It’s far too conservative in my opinion and even then you cannot predict when (or if) a second wave will come. It may even come when term 3 begins, at peak flu season.

In the current environment, the longer you close schools the more you trade off the educational benefit (of a classroom) for a very marginal health benefit. Having classroom learning as the baseline but preparing a good back up plan for online learning, in case a second wave hits, seems appropriate for the risk in this situation. I just think it’s far too risk averse to definitively trade off the quality of education with what is effectively a small probability gamble on a second wave of infections.

I think the ideal would be to have an ongoing hybrid face-to-face and online learning model on alternating weeks or something like that (for high school students). Unfortunately, that is just not practical because the current infrastructure was never set up for that.
 

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The main rationale for wanting it faster for Year 12s is because the education risk from home learning vs face-to-face learning is far greater than any other year. Given the current state of low community transmission in general, the difference in health risk across the age groups in schools is perhaps less significant. Hence, the education risk should be a larger consideration.

I’m not sure I quite follow the rationale that not having to shut schools again come a second wave is a reason to keep them closed for longer. It’s far too conservative in my opinion and even then you cannot predict when (or if) a second wave will come. It may even come when term 3 begins, at peak flu season.

In the current environment, the longer you close schools the more you trade off the educational benefit (of a classroom) for a very marginal health benefit. Having classroom learning as the baseline but preparing a good back up plan for online learning, in case a second wave hits, seems appropriate for the risk in this situation. I just think it’s far too risk averse to definitively trade off the quality of education with what is effectively a small probability gamble on a second wave of infections.

I think the ideal would be to have an ongoing hybrid face-to-face and online learning model on alternating weeks or something like that (for high school students). Unfortunately, that is just not practical because the current infrastructure was never set up for that.
As you noted, the differing approaches probably does depend on the degree of risk acceptance and the individuals assessment of the probability of further waves of infection.

Currently, we are seeing the easing of restrictions without having eliminated the virus. My position is that this is highly likely (>80%) to result in a resurgence of the virus, coupled by dropping temperatures with the coming winter, and that such a resurgence is likely to occur 2-4 weeks after the restrictions are significantly relaxed (probably May 11). This would put the start of the second wave around June, i.e the later part of term 2. Further to this point, if such resurgence occurs, school will be forced to reclose end of term 2, term 3 and 4. If the governments are persistent, they can probably hold out closing schools till term 3 but by then it will be extremely difficult to justify in the case of a second wave.

Overall, the current governments strategy would return to school approximately for 3-5 weeks in the case of the second wave. Considering that the return is only one day a week, the benefit is net three to five days whilst creating widespread disruption. Even with a full return to school, the benefit is only 5 weeks whilst accompanied with significant health risks towards the end of that period.
 

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I found this article on someone complaining that Job Keeper payments are taxed at their marginal rate... not sure how I'm meant to feel when a guy who earns $180k+ complains that since he got stood down and went onto Job Keeper, he's only getting $450 per week and it isn't enough to cover his mortgage payments or car loans. Hmm.

 

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Unpopular opinion - I think there's going to be a resurgence / 'second wave' after things (including school) start to resume...
That opinion is pretty common tbh.

It also depends on what people mean by a "second wave". I would call a sustained exponential growth from community transmission with multiple untraceable sources a "second wave", but localised spikes here and there do not count.

I also seem to be one of the few people who reckons there is only a small chance of a second wave for Australia (at least one that’s as bad or worse than the first wave). Guess time will tell.
 

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I think it’s obvious that the second wave won’t be as bad, unless they choose to forgo health impact for economic benefit, which I find unlikely. What it would cause though, regardless of whether we term it a second wave or not, is then widespread shutdowns.

I agree with your definition of a second wave. Actually, not many places in the world have experienced a genuine second wave, but this might be attributable to the relatively low number of countries which have actually eased restrictions.
 

BLIT2014

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I found this article on someone complaining that Job Keeper payments are taxed at their marginal rate... not sure how I'm meant to feel when a guy who earns $180k+ complains that since he got stood down and went onto Job Keeper, he's only getting $450 per week and it isn't enough to cover his mortgage payments or car loans. Hmm.

I’m curious how much his car loans are.
 

brent012

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I’m curious how much his car loans are.
My favourite part is this:
One stood-down worker, who declined to be named for fear of jeopardising his employment
Good news for him is that we're nearing the end of the FY, and even forgetting potentially being overtaxed on JobKeeper, he should be getting a good tax return for having too much withheld earlier in the year. Doubt we'll see an article about that.
 
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seremify007

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I’m curious how much his car loans are.
I feel a bit mean to say this but I thought when **** happens, you usually then need to make choices which often means giving up something... it's like he's gone down the route of "COVID-19 isn't my fault so I don't want to give anything up".
 

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Trump is an interesting character who was elected during a time when the American people basically had 'enough'. Recalling an American who commented during Trump's election bid, 'the rest of the world couldn't comprehend how angry we Americans are'. One of the reasons why Hillary couldn't cut through. Trump's base will continue to forgive him for his comments, reminding themselves that hey, its stress, he's taken out of context or maybe didn't articulate himself well enough, feeling overwhelmed. The others like Nancy P aren't going to let this pass. America is really complicated. Their culture is rooted on the idea of Meritocracy which doesn't always work. Some people work very hard but they don't necessarily get rewarded. Are they lesser of a person? Absolutely not. This sentiment is not always shared over there. Its basically survival of the fittest. 🌎
wow ur dumb
 

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Odd and possibly irrelevant question but is it safe to eat from fast food establishments or eat food from outside? I am asking since employees have direct contact to the food or packagings, and money, then it's handed to us, which raises the question if it's safe. Any thoughts?
 

studiesofboard

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Odd and possibly irrelevant question but is it safe to eat from fast food establishments or eat food from outside? I am asking since employees have direct contact to the food or packagings, and money, then it's handed to us, which raises the question if it's safe. Any thoughts?

I wouldn't considering many fast food places are not hygienic and do not clean things. For example, Mcdonalds. I heard some Mcdonalds workers are shit heads and spit in food so yeah not safe haha but that's my opinion.
 

Trebla

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Odd and possibly irrelevant question but is it safe to eat from fast food establishments or eat food from outside? I am asking since employees have direct contact to the food or packagings, and money, then it's handed to us, which raises the question if it's safe. Any thoughts?
Most decent places have already beefed up their hygiene rules (or are expected to when restrictions relax) around that to minimise the risk.

Considering how many people still eat from outside restaurants everyday (via takeaway), the risk is quite low - especially if it’s hot food because any virus or bacteria is unlikely to survive in that environment.
 

Trebla

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NSW just returned schools back to normal...now they’re allowing regional travel and restaurants to hold up to 50 people from 1st of June. That’s like 2-3 weeks earlier than what I was expecting.

I think the state government is getting a bit too ambitious. Guess we’ll see what the case numbers will look like in mid-June...
 

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