Coronavirus/Covid-19 Discussion Thread (2 Viewers)

Would you take a coronavirus vaccine if it was available to you, and if so which would you prefer?

  • No

    Votes: 18 11.8%
  • Any vaccine

    Votes: 19 12.4%
  • Pfizer

    Votes: 47 30.7%
  • Astra Zeneca

    Votes: 1 0.7%
  • Already vaccinated with AZ

    Votes: 2 1.3%
  • Already vaccinated with Pfizer

    Votes: 60 39.2%
  • Moderna

    Votes: 2 1.3%
  • Sputnik

    Votes: 1 0.7%
  • Janssen

    Votes: 2 1.3%
  • Novavax

    Votes: 1 0.7%

  • Total voters
    153

Potato Sticks

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Regarding the issue of schools, probably either they reopen around August, or not until at least midway next year (or they reopen August and then reclose).

Now it’s looking increasingly like the government pretty much has one shot of getting us out (i.e eradication) and if they screw up (or it turns out to be out of their control) and the reopening of society causes resurgence, this is going to be here until a vaccine comes.

Suppression and control is not an option that is compatible with significantly easing restrictions (significantly meaning e.g reopen restaurants, not just repealing stage 3 restrictions) or reopening school, no matter how careful. While many thought this was before, the situation has changed substantially in the past two weeks and Japan and Singapore are having a second wave, Singapore still in its exponential phase, in spite of their restrictions being similar to what would be considered under a “eased” regime (now their restrictions are stricter of course). Singapore also has the phone tracking system that is widely acclaimed. China are locking down different provinces, but the extent of the second wave,if existing, is unknown. The unfortunate truth is that people become complacent when there are less cases (as is recently). This will result in a second wave unless we enforce closures of “principle places of social gathering”. Allowing cinemas to open is asking for social interaction (even if you implement, say, 1.5 m social distance, that is very difficult to enforce). Personally, I cannot imagine a group of teenagers visiting the cinemas and maintaining 1.5 m from each other. And if someone sees “oh there’s only 50 cases today, it won’t matter”, then the problem will balloon out of control again. The problem is the same with other places - the only way to enforce social distancing is to stop the gathering.

Now, about eradication, which is a legitimate path that has opened up now. In my opinion, eradication is our only and best chance out before our vaccines. If we shut down everything (except health care, of course) for 2 months, ban on exercise, enforced food deliveries and banning on site supermarket visits unless emergency, etc. It is also worth noting that New Zealand has 20 or so odd cases recently each day, with their lockdown strategy but if this is lifted in a week’s time as scheduled, there is little chance that eradication is successful. But they also haven’t done everything, such as stay at home orders, which would reduce residual contact.

Something interesting that I notice is that the daily cases tend to be exponential when there are not enough restrictions and social distancing, and approximately linear when there are, as the linear portion represents the people that continually flout the rules. This is crux of our problem, as 1) it means the virus is survives through periods of restriction, and 2) the “acceptable” linear growth quickly turns into exponential growth as the general population increases contact (above r of 1). Considering the new estimation of r being 5-6, this is quite difficult without the current restrictions. (Note: the current restrictions easily reduce the number of people you contact 6 fold). This is why if we implement eradication approach, and we are required to stay at home (except health care), then the rule flouters stand out even more (currently they can pull one of a number of excuses convincingly, such as they are exercising when they are really going to a party (no way to check), or they are driving to a supermarket when they are really going to their friends house (if they remember which supermarkets they pass on their drive)), and can be fined or jailed as necessary. And then the curve might drop to zero.
 

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New evidence has recently come to light from multiple studies about the role that asymptomatic transmission, links can be found in the article below.

“In one Washington State nursing home, 56 per cent of those who tested positive for COVID-19 had no symptoms. Aboard the Diamond Princess cruise ship, 50 per cent showed no signs at the time of testing while 18 per cent never did.
One study published in the journal Science indicates that people with no or mild symptoms contributed to 79 per cent of all transmissions within China, as they felt they were healthy enough to travel.
A study based in Italy similarly identified between 50 and 75 per cent of carriers were asymptomatic.”


The role of children also seems to have been underplayed in the past weeks. Evidence appears to be building that they are infected more often and transmit more often than previously thought.

“Most New York children “probably” already have coronavirus and are serving as vectors to spread the disease, a New York paediatrician says.
Dr. Dyan Hes at New York City’s Gramercy paediatrics advised parents to assume their children have the virus if they contract even mild symptoms consistent with the disease.
“I think that probably 80 per cent of the children have coronavirus.”

Now, onto the decisions:

1) They are aiming for a 4-6 week reopen of the economy, implying repeal of all stages of restriction. Nothing wrong with aiming, just not particularly realistic.
2) They are aiming for a week 3 reopen of schools in NSW. Again, given the increasing evidence of children as asymptomatic spreaders, this isn’t likely to last long. Reopen is highly dependent on how well they control a second wave (which is not, to be honest, compatible with reopening schools - just think about the public transport, interaction with members of the public, family members, teachers, and int case anything other than eradication or indefinite stage 2 restrictions)

I believe, unfortunately, what is happening is they are starting to yield to public pressure too much, which is always “lockdown! Lockdown!” in the exponential phase (what NZ tried to do, and is unfortunately not working), and “repeal the restrictions”in the linear phase .
 

Trebla

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I think care needs to be taken to distinguish between people who don’t have symptoms at an observed point in time (but then develop them later on) and people who never show symptoms at all. Asymptomatic transmission captures both the above types but the vast majority of them fall into that “presymptomatic” category which is contact traceable.
 

Potato Sticks

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I think care needs to be taken to distinguish between people who don’t have symptoms at an observed point in time (but then develop them later on) and people who never show symptoms at all. Asymptomatic transmission captures both the above types but the vast majority of them fall into that “presymptomatic” category which is contact traceable.
Yes you do raise a good point and I went back to check some of the studies and news.com.au did inflate some of the figures. It does remain that some portion of the fully asymptomatic cases can transmit the virus, in some cases to many people mostly in the case of doctors, and very sadly, also in aged care homes.

The main point I’m getting at here is that it is very difficult to suppress the virus to a constant low level while reopening the economy, in the absence of eradication of course, as any substantial relief measures would cause a resurgence, and that neither is the status quo able to eliminate the virus, due to rule flouters and (even comparatively low) numbers of asymptomatic transmission which can also occur in places such as supermarkets.
 

Deadinside

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I’m actually so confused another this whole school opening thing. do We go Back to school on week three of term two? If this goes on how will we take our hsc trials or prelims? And what about our assessment? i mean who can guarantee that no one will cheat or sth? And roster system what even is that? but srsly though what will happen to year 11 and twelve.
 
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studiesofboard

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This could go on for the whole of term 2 there is no information about it. For trials I am assuming we still go to school and sit the exams because supervision is needed otherwise people can cheat. Also, we could get an estimate based on our in class exams and assignments. Assessments could be handed electronically through email or they can be delivered to your house by post. I think rostering system is certain days that teachers are assigned to come into the school to supervise students who are unable to stay at home. Something will happen to year 11 and 12 idek. :confused2: :confused:
 

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This could go on for the whole of term 2 there is no information about it. For trials I am assuming we still go to school and sit the exams because supervision is needed otherwise people can cheat. Also, we could get an estimate based on our in class exams and assignments. Assessments could be handed electronically through email or they can be delivered to your house by post. I think rostering system is certain days that teachers are assigned to come into the school to supervise students who are unable to stay at home. Something will happen to year 11 and 12 idek. :confused2: :confused:
but how can they be sure that no one will cheat?
 

studiesofboard

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We have no luck😂

1) Can't actually do trials at school ( being surrounded by heaps of students who might have the coronavirus)
2) Can't do exam at home (accused of cheating)
 

Trebla

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I’m actually so confused another this whole school opening thing. do We go Back to school on week three of term two? If this goes on how will we take our hsc trials or prelims? And what about our assessment? i mean who can guarantee that no one will cheat or sth? And roster system what even is that? but srsly though what will happen to year 11 and twelve.
I suspect the rostering system would look like what some workplaces are adopting. For example, half the class is rostered to turn up for face-to-face learning for one week and then in the second week they are rostered to stay home (and swap with the other half of the class).
 

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Alright, they’re on a day a week starting week 3 which at some points turns into two days a week. This will create maximum chaos for teachers and they will have to teach in all three modes.

As for health side, I’d agree that this probably won’t cause cases to increase much until a more widespread easing of restriction occurs in 1 months time. Then it’s back to lockdown again weeks or months after that...

I do note now that NZ is going out of lockdowns. This makes absolutely no sense, given they are still registering a number of cases and they won’t be able to eradicate this with their stage 4 restrictions. Arden in fact recently changed her stance that eradication isn’t actually equivalent to getting rid of all cases.
 

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New evidence also suggests immunity is temporary for the Coronavirus, we may see waves each winter until vaccines are here.
 

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