economics hsc student lecture day (1 Viewer)

[bettina44]

just out of curiosity, anyone going tomorrow? its the one in hurstville btw

 

[Ethanescence]

Yes, I went today. There was a bit of controversy as to whether Australia was or wasn't in recession.

 

[bettina44]

Yes, I went today. There was a bit of controversy as to whether Australia was or wasn't in recession.

yeah confused the hell out of me, my teacher said we aren't, gittins and caton says we are and that dr sarah wright said we aren't???

which one was your school btw?

 

[reboulle]

Gittins was looking at it from an economist's point of view. He was looking at indicators like Australia's debt and rising unemployment. I could tell that Wright was a lot more technical about things- so since there weren't two quarters of negative growth, she believes we're not. As to the fact if we actually are in recession or not? You could say both- just back up your answer.

Anyone liked Wright showing the cartoon that was "quite hilarious" ? lol

 

[Ethanescence]

yeah confused the hell out of me, my teacher said we aren't, gittins and caton says we are and that dr sarah wright said we aren't???

which one was your school btw?

I was from Woolooware High.

Yeah, I personally think people get too caught up in the different definitions of recession. Basically, Australia is currently not in a "technical recession" because there has not been two quarters of negative growth.

But by saying that, it would be ignorant to say Australia is not affected by the GFC simply because it is not in a recession. It has influenced (or is expected to further influence) other areas of the economy, such as employment, etc.

Measuring or defining a recession through rises in unemployment seems to miss the point. There are times, such as now, where the alternative 1.5% increase in unemployment within 12 months does not coincide with two quarters of negative growth - but why it would be considered a recession when growth or the state of the economy has not declined for a prolonged period of time? And if 1.5% decrease in employment supposedly measures a recession, why wouldn't a 1.5% increase in employment measure an expansion? It's basically changing the entire concept of the business cycle, or at least how it is determined/measured.

GDP has increased by 0.4% in the quarter, which doesn't seem particularly recession-like to me.

For example... if labour in a country (let's say Brazil) was being heavily replaced with capital/equipment in the agricultural industry, the efficiency of the firms would increase and so would the potential output, etc, assuming that it now costs less and production is faster with the use of better technology. Yet now unemployment in the economy is rising sharply as labour in this industry is being replaced and is no longer necessary (e.g. they are using 1 person with a tractor to a job that previously 20 people had to be employed to do), with the replaced labour now possibly seeking new employment in the services sector. So would this be considered a recession because of the 1.5% rise in unemployment within 12 months, even though there is a pronounced increase in GDP as a result? I don't really think so.

Here's an article that I think one of the speakers used to support the 1.5% unemployment recession definition:
Club Troppo � What is the difference between a recession and a depression?

 

[bettina44]

you know what, i'll just say that the economy is showing recession like characteristics

I was from Woolooware High.

you guys were sitting two rows in front of us and my teacher's son went to your school

 

[MaNiElla]

man im finding eco so difficult lately, like i go through syllabus but i cant seem to remember anyting

*hugs*

 

[gurmies]

LOL, I went as well. Of course we're in a recession...the last speaker was easy to look at so I'll pay her controversial remarks xD

 

[bettina44]

LOL, I went as well. Of course we're in a recession...the last speaker was easy to look at so I'll pay her controversial remarks xD

hmm i wonder if that guy behind us who yelled out 'ohhh now i'm interested' when she came out was...u?

 

[gurmies]

LOL, I don't yell =]

 

[~aussiegirl!~]

Were not in a recession

That ross guy has a minor in economics, and is a journalist.. =P

 

[Chibimaru]

LOL, I went as well. Of course we're in a recession...the last speaker was easy to look at so I'll pay her controversial remarks xD

1. Australia was not in a recession at the time of your post, and is still not in one.

2. 'The last speaker' has a name - Dr Sarah Wright - and warrants more credit than 'easy to look at'.

3. You're a nit.

 

[ATAR_boy]

1. Australia was not in a recession at the time of your post, and is still not in one.

2. 'The last speaker' has a name - Dr Sarah Wright - and warrants more credit than 'easy to look at'.

3. You're a nit.

Brilliant 3rd point. Gittins was taking an economist point of view, which was clearly: Australia's in a recession...

 

[Chibimaru]

Brilliant 3rd point. Gittins was taking an economist point of view, which was clearly: Australia's in a recession...

Proper definition of recession is negative economic growth. Australia's GDP was always positive (check ABS if you don't believe me). Therefore Australia was not in a recession. Just because an economy exhibits the symptoms of a recession doesn't mean it's going through one. If a girl wakes up puking one morning, it doesn't necessarily mean she's pregnant, right?

You might also be interested in knowing that Gittins only has a minor in economics and is definitely not an economist by profession. So no, he's talking from a journalist's point of view, which was clearly: tell everyone Australia's in a recession because it will stir attention and earn me more acclaim...