Iv been running a blog, this is my take on it. battleground.blogspot.com
Pizza businessman Herman cain has ended his... lets just say interesting campaign. He soared above several candidates at the the official Republican debate in South Carolina. Republicans saw Cain as a breath of fresh air, an outsider who never dipped his toes into run for federal office. He was the anti-establishment, Washington outsider. Just the sort candidate who could thrive in this political climate. As he saw the dominoes of Tim Pawlenty fall and Rick Perry self-destruct, Cain became November's flavour of the month. However with his departure, Gingrich has risen to become the lead candidate, the Anti-Romney. Well and truly, Gingrich's campaign is experiencing its twilight. Just like Romney, he's been consistent in his campaign and produced some solid debate performances. However, on Gingrich's side is the fact that nobody has tried to throw a punch at him. For example, we saw Perry execute an almighty effort to destabilise Romney on the Former Governor's ''hiring'' of illegal immigrants. Yes, it was an almighty effort by Perry, though the execution was anotehr story. The thing is that Gingrich hasnt faced up to those punches, has been able go down the safe path with nobody trying to push him over. With the other GOP candidates all falling around him, you could say its no surprise. However, the challenge now exists for Gingrich to stay atop the field. With only a month to go till the Iowa Caucuses, the other candidates will show no mercy by trying to bring down Gingrich. We may have already seen the beginning, with Michele Bachmann (Bah! that single l in her name always trhows me off) acussing the former speaker of amnesty in his pledge to throw out some illegal immigrants and let others stay.
With the endorsement of the Union paper in New Hampshire, Gingrich is atop the field in New Hampshire, the one state that Romney's campaign have been bullish about. Romney NEEDS to win New Hampshire. This is his state, this is the state that best fits his mould. Romney losing New Hampshire in 2008 essentially ended his hopes of winning the nomination. If the polls continur in the state as they are, this could become a huge problem for Romney because momentum is the key. Iowa isnt a strong state for Romney however he’s consistently been polling in the top 3 in the state. The belief has always been that Romney can finish 2nd or 3rd in Iowa, win New Hampshire and be the frontrunner for the important Florida primary and hence the nomination. New Hampshire has been his firewall. However, if polls continue to show Gingrich ahead in New Hampshire, Romneys only chance may well be to win in Iowa to get the momentum he needs to win the follwing states, which will be an almightily tough ask.
You could say that Romney need not worry because he’s been behind in the nationwide polls on a regular basis to each month’s lead Anti-Romney (theres been at least 3 lead Anti-Romneys in the past 6 months or so) only to see them perish as they pressed the self destruct button. But that’s the thing, Romney has been reliant on each months lead Anti-Romney candidate to press that self destruct button. Perry and Cain are poor debaters on the national stage and you could say that they were always going to press that self destruct button, which is why Romney’s campaign never panicked even though they were being beaten in the polls. However, Gingrich is one of the Republican’s most skilled and experienced debaters, and you would be extremely naive to assume or even think that Gingrich will also press the self destruct button. And with Gingrich polling well in an essential state for Romney, you can bet that there’ll be some timid people in the Romney campaign right now. With just over a month to go, Romney may well need something very favourable to go his way, or for Gingrich to self-destruct. Only time will tell... The great thing for us is that its not much time to wait for!!!
Pizza businessman Herman cain has ended his... lets just say interesting campaign. He soared above several candidates at the the official Republican debate in South Carolina. Republicans saw Cain as a breath of fresh air, an outsider who never dipped his toes into run for federal office. He was the anti-establishment, Washington outsider. Just the sort candidate who could thrive in this political climate. As he saw the dominoes of Tim Pawlenty fall and Rick Perry self-destruct, Cain became November's flavour of the month. However with his departure, Gingrich has risen to become the lead candidate, the Anti-Romney. Well and truly, Gingrich's campaign is experiencing its twilight. Just like Romney, he's been consistent in his campaign and produced some solid debate performances. However, on Gingrich's side is the fact that nobody has tried to throw a punch at him. For example, we saw Perry execute an almighty effort to destabilise Romney on the Former Governor's ''hiring'' of illegal immigrants. Yes, it was an almighty effort by Perry, though the execution was anotehr story. The thing is that Gingrich hasnt faced up to those punches, has been able go down the safe path with nobody trying to push him over. With the other GOP candidates all falling around him, you could say its no surprise. However, the challenge now exists for Gingrich to stay atop the field. With only a month to go till the Iowa Caucuses, the other candidates will show no mercy by trying to bring down Gingrich. We may have already seen the beginning, with Michele Bachmann (Bah! that single l in her name always trhows me off) acussing the former speaker of amnesty in his pledge to throw out some illegal immigrants and let others stay.
With the endorsement of the Union paper in New Hampshire, Gingrich is atop the field in New Hampshire, the one state that Romney's campaign have been bullish about. Romney NEEDS to win New Hampshire. This is his state, this is the state that best fits his mould. Romney losing New Hampshire in 2008 essentially ended his hopes of winning the nomination. If the polls continur in the state as they are, this could become a huge problem for Romney because momentum is the key. Iowa isnt a strong state for Romney however he’s consistently been polling in the top 3 in the state. The belief has always been that Romney can finish 2nd or 3rd in Iowa, win New Hampshire and be the frontrunner for the important Florida primary and hence the nomination. New Hampshire has been his firewall. However, if polls continue to show Gingrich ahead in New Hampshire, Romneys only chance may well be to win in Iowa to get the momentum he needs to win the follwing states, which will be an almightily tough ask.
You could say that Romney need not worry because he’s been behind in the nationwide polls on a regular basis to each month’s lead Anti-Romney (theres been at least 3 lead Anti-Romneys in the past 6 months or so) only to see them perish as they pressed the self destruct button. But that’s the thing, Romney has been reliant on each months lead Anti-Romney candidate to press that self destruct button. Perry and Cain are poor debaters on the national stage and you could say that they were always going to press that self destruct button, which is why Romney’s campaign never panicked even though they were being beaten in the polls. However, Gingrich is one of the Republican’s most skilled and experienced debaters, and you would be extremely naive to assume or even think that Gingrich will also press the self destruct button. And with Gingrich polling well in an essential state for Romney, you can bet that there’ll be some timid people in the Romney campaign right now. With just over a month to go, Romney may well need something very favourable to go his way, or for Gingrich to self-destruct. Only time will tell... The great thing for us is that its not much time to wait for!!!
