Presidential Election (3 Viewers)

[halapenyo]

Re: First Presidential Debate

Obama
approval: 53%
disapproval 42%

Registered voters: obama winning 48-47%

likely voters: Romney winning 50-47

what are likely voters?

 

[Lentern]

Re: First Presidential Debate

Obama
approval: 53%
disapproval 42%

Registered voters: obama winning 48-47%

likely voters: Romney winning 50-47

what are likely voters?

Also one poll in isolation is not useful!

 

[funkshen]

Re: First Presidential Debate

Bullshit logic, betting markets are just people speculating based on opinion polls, commentators and idiotic "instinct." Opinion polling is a far better indicator.

opinion polls have a margin of error. prediction markets don't. obviously, the margin of error is less relevant if you have a series of polls. but on the day, or hours, before the election, the prediction markets would be more accurate than one poll due to there not being a margin of error.

regardless, you're not really arguing against the point. prediction markets are, as you said, based on opinion polls, which, according to you, are a far better indicator, and are also based on commentators and idiotic instinct.

i don't know where your hostility towards prediction markets or modeling comes from though.

 

[soloooooo]

Re: First Presidential Debate

opinion polls have a margin of error. prediction markets don't. obviously, the margin of error is less relevant if you have a series of polls. but on the day, or hours, before the election, the prediction markets would be more accurate than one poll due to there not being a margin of error.

regardless, you're not really arguing against the point. prediction markets are, as you said, based on opinion polls, which, according to you, are a far better indicator, and are also based on commentators and idiotic instinct.

i don't know where your hostility towards prediction markets or modeling comes from though.

Prediction markets can be altered though. Sure, it would be hard to do (and pretty pointless) for something as big as a presidential election although not impossible. If some idiot manages to get 1 million down on either candidate (unlikely) and shifts their odds in by 10c, does it mean that candidate is now more likely to win? No.

If you are interested into this sort of analysis look into manipulating smaller pools.

 

[funkshen]

Re: First Presidential Debate

Prediction markets can be altered though. Sure, it would be hard to do (and pretty pointless) for something as big as a presidential election although not impossible. If some idiot manages to get 1 million down on either candidate (unlikely) and shifts their odds in by 10c, does it mean that candidate is now more likely to win? No.

If you are interested into this sort of analysis look into manipulating smaller pools.

yeah ive read about the markets being manipulated. there is, of course, the potential for this to occur in any market. however i don't think it's a very significant issue. given that there are numerous (even dozens) of prediction markets, and not-for-profits like the iowa electronic markets that can't be manipulated, there is 1) too much room for arbitrage for disequilbriums to survive for meaningful periods of time, and 2) predictions can be well anchored. also one cannot reason from a price chance (odds varying) or from a price differential about the specific likelihood of either outcome. the prediction market is an aggregate of both the gambler's appetite for risk and his risk calculations. it is therefore the case that if the odds moved 10 cents in favour of romney, it doesn't mean that obama (whose odds remain the same) is any less likely to win.

whether prediction markets can influence outcomes is a different question.

 

[soloooooo]

Re: First Presidential Debate

http://articles.chicagotribune.com/...21019_1_gallup-frank-newport-obama-and-romney

 

[SylviaB]

Re: First Presidential Debate

 

[Absolutezero]

Re: First Presidential Debate

Fun video, though you'd get exactly the same response from the other side using the same tactics.

 

[Lolsmith]

Re: First Presidential Debate

I hope those two white chicks are on the top of that kill list

 

[funkshen]

Re: First Presidential Debate

hey look at this, people are stupid

therefore, ________________________

 

[halapenyo]

Re: First Presidential Debate

controversial obama campaign ad

 

[soloooooo]

Re: First Presidential Debate

I don't like the ad. Neither candidate should have run an ad like that.

In my opinion that is more likely to ostracise people and lose Obama votes than it is to get him votes or encourage more young people to vote.

 

[halapenyo]

Re: First Presidential Debate

its a pretty poor ad to release so close to the election. unless Obama's camp feel they have some sort of advantage with 18-25 year old females.

 

[kaz1]

Re: First Presidential Debate

I don't like the ad. Neither candidate should have run an ad like that.

In my opinion that is more likely to ostracise people and lose Obama votes than it is to get him votes or encourage more young people to vote.

That ad looks like it was done by a superpact not the Obama campaign.

 

[Absolutezero]

Re: First Presidential Debate

its a pretty poor ad to release so close to the election. unless Obama's camp feel they have some sort of advantage with 18-25 year old females.

The Obama campaign would definitely have an advantage with that demographic IMO.

 

[halapenyo]

Re: First Presidential Debate

The Obama campaign would definitely have an advantage with that demographic IMO.

why is that?

 

[Absolutezero]

Re: First Presidential Debate

Because both women and the youth vote typically favour Democrats.

 

[halapenyo]

Re: First Presidential Debate

Because IIRC both women and the youth vote typically favour Democrats.

ah alright that explains why they released such an ad.

 

[soloooooo]

Re: First Presidential Debate

Immature people are more likely to vote for the Democrats/Labor. Once people mature they are more likely to vote for the Republicans/Liberals etc.

 

[Absolutezero]

Re: First Presidential Debate

ah alright that explains why they released such an ad.

See Kaz's post above.

Immature people are more likely to vote for the Democrats/Labor. Once people mature they are more likely to vote for the Republicans/Liberals etc.

Yeah, it's totally a maturity thing. Not a social status thing. Not a cultural thing. Not an economic thing. It's just about how mature they are.